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Post by SteveUL on Mar 31, 2014 9:28:43 GMT -4
OK ... lets get started on next year. I'll break it down by age first and then position.
Caissie and Donnelly are our only losses (at this point) ... although I guess you can add Campagna to that.
17 YOs (next season)
Olivier, Holwell, Bower ... and Jacob is expected in, plus perhaps Lane Cormier
18 YOs (next season)
Smith, Seegar, Garland, Klebanskyj, Nicholson, White, Rioux, Pugsley
19 YOs (next season)
Simpson, Johnson, Johnston, Sweeney, Halabi, Tkachev, Barbashev
20 YOs (next season)
Lalonde, Dubeau, Haas
Goaltenders are set ... Dubeau and Rioux will be a good tandem, with Rioux's workload increasing next year.
Defense looks good ... Sweeney and Johnston will anchor a pretty solid group. Holwell, Haas and Klebanskyj will battle for Top 4 positions, and Nicholson playing a regular role in the 5/6 slots. I can't see them breaking camp next year with White unless he grows into his body a little better ... he seemed to grow 2 or 3 inches to what looked like about 6'7", which is quite awkward at 17. They'll want to add a Dman or 2 from the draft.
Forwards ... lets leave the Euros out of it for a moment. Lalonde and Garland will provide solid offense, and I expect that Simpson and Smith will contribute in a bigger way. I'm very excited about what Bower and Olivier will do as they were excellent in the playoffs. I'm not sure that we need Halabi back as a 19 YO 4th liner. Jacob is going to be a very good Jr player and I expect something similar to what Garland brings after he has adjusted to the speed of the league. Seegar is a bit of an anomaly for me ... I'm not fond of his skating but he does like to go to the net and score by picking up the garbage. Pugsley probably takes on a 3rd line role, but I expect more offense from him as he is a former scoring champ of the NSMAAA as a 15 YO. He certainly works hard and has very good speed.
The real issue is our Euros. I don't expect Barbashev to go high in the draft and I expect he'll be late 1st at best. If he is a first then I believe that means we can draft another Euro in his place and wait and see if he is back. I'm 98% certain he will be back for his 19 YO season but stranger things have happened. Hopefully he goes in Rd 1 and allows us to draft another Euro .. and then returns for his 19 YO season.
Tkachev is a whole 'nother situation. My understanding is he wants to come back ... but the deal we have with his KHL team is a one year thing and so we'll need to renegotiate to get him back here. His strong showing here might mean he jumps up to the big club in the KHL, and if he is drafted fairly high (2nd Rd ?) they might want to bring him back away from NA and lock him up. I don't know. But the problem it creates is that we have to know what is going on before the Import Draft in June. If Barbashev is drafted in Rd 1 then it allows some flexibility.
We only get 2 Euro picks, can't trade up ... and can't use either of them if we want Barbashev and Tkachev back. If they are both back ... great ... I think we might even contend or at least go deep into the playoffs. If Tkachev is unavailable then we draft another guy but doubtful you find a guy like him.
Going forward ... with the restrictions on Euros and Euro picks, having 2 Euros the same age is not a good idea. If Barbashev and Tkachev are both back, it means we have to replace both the next season with what should be a 1st rd pick about 75% into the round ... and a similar 2nd rounder. Our 15/16 season is likely where we want to contend and that won't work well with that timing.
Another option is to deal Barbashev and Tkachev as a package to Quebec who are expected to host the Mem Cup next year. We'd take their Euros next year (at Xmas), plus picks and prospects/players. They are likely losing all 3 Euros they have now as they are all 19 (one is 25) ... so we could have a say in who they pick. A deal would have to be made obviously.
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Post by Penguins23® on Mar 31, 2014 9:39:19 GMT -4
Another option is to deal Barbashev and Tkachev as a package to Quebec who are expected to host the Mem Cup next year. We'd take their Euros next year (at Xmas), plus picks and prospects/players. They are likely losing all 3 Euros they have now as they are all 19 (one is 25) ... so we could have a say in who they pick. A deal would have to be made obviously. I like where your heads at they have to wait a full year after drafting a Euro to trade that Euro. These new rules are really going to hurt the league. It really throws a wrench in the timing. If the Cats are serious about contending in 15/16 then they would have to trade Barbashev and/or Tkachev at the draft this season and try to mold an 18 year old into a solid 19 year old Euro the following season.
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Post by jimmy on Mar 31, 2014 9:55:13 GMT -4
I agree that we are set in net with Dubeau and Rioux.
Not so sure I agree about the strength of our defense. Sweeney and Johnston are definite top 4 guys. After that Holwell has a chance to get there, but is still only 17. Klebanskyj was a pleasant surprise, but I am not sure he will be a guy who ends up being top 4 on a good team. Nice asset to have in the 5/6 role, though. Not sold on Haas as an OA - IMO, at best he is a #5/6 d-man ... many people poked fun at Bathurst for using Dylan Grundy as an OA this year - IMO, Haas is a similar player. He has given us good service, but not sure that he brings enough to the table as an OA. I think we need to find another top 4 d-man - perhaps via FA, or perhaps via the draft. Agree that White will need to show large improvement to be back ... same with Nicholson - I would expect his role will be filled by a younger player from the draft. We don't really have any prospects waiting in the wings, unless one of the Americans surprisingly reports - so we will be dependent on FAs and the 2014 draft to fill out our D.
Up front, we look to return 12 guys (Lalonde, Barbashev, Johnson, Simpson, Tkachev, Halabi, Pugsley, Garland, Smith, Seegar, Bower and Olivier). They all look fairly safe to make the team to me - Halabi would be the only questionable one, but presumably they will keep someone around for toughness, so it may as well be him unless something better comes along. Jacob, Lane Cormier, and Eric Leger should all have a good chance to crack the roster as 17 y/o's ... Not a lot of openings beyond that - I don't really see anyone else among our current prospects as serious candidates.
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Post by SteveUL on Mar 31, 2014 11:04:10 GMT -4
I agree that we are set in net with Dubeau and Rioux. Not so sure I agree about the strength of our defense. Sweeney and Johnston are definite top 4 guys. After that Holwell has a chance to get there, but is still only 17. Klebanskyj was a pleasant surprise, but I am not sure he will be a guy who ends up being top 4 on a good team. Nice asset to have in the 5/6 role, though. Not sold on Haas as an OA - IMO, at best he is a #5/6 d-man ... many people poked fun at Bathurst for using Dylan Grundy as an OA this year - IMO, Haas is a similar player. He has given us good service, but not sure that he brings enough to the table as an OA. I think we need to find another top 4 d-man - perhaps via FA, or perhaps via the draft. Agree that White will need to show large improvement to be back ... same with Nicholson - I would expect his role will be filled by a younger player from the draft. We don't really have any prospects waiting in the wings, unless one of the Americans surprisingly reports - so we will be dependent on FAs and the 2014 draft to fill out our D. Up front, we look to return 12 guys (Lalonde, Barbashev, Johnson, Simpson, Tkachev, Halabi, Pugsley, Garland, Smith, Seegar, Bower and Olivier). They all look fairly safe to make the team to me - Halabi would be the only questionable one, but presumably they will keep someone around for toughness, so it may as well be him unless something better comes along. Jacob, Lane Cormier, and Eric Leger should all have a good chance to crack the roster as 17 y/o's ... Not a lot of openings beyond that - I don't really see anyone else among our current prospects as serious candidates. I disagree on Haas. He is a solid #5 but not quite a #4. The big difference between him and Grundy is that we don't have to trade to get Haas. For me, Haas should be the captain of this team ... not Lalonde. Lalonde was a bit of a disappointment in the playoffs and does not lead by example ... while Haas does.
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Post by jimmy on Mar 31, 2014 12:29:41 GMT -4
I agree that we are set in net with Dubeau and Rioux. Not so sure I agree about the strength of our defense. Sweeney and Johnston are definite top 4 guys. After that Holwell has a chance to get there, but is still only 17. Klebanskyj was a pleasant surprise, but I am not sure he will be a guy who ends up being top 4 on a good team. Nice asset to have in the 5/6 role, though. Not sold on Haas as an OA - IMO, at best he is a #5/6 d-man ... many people poked fun at Bathurst for using Dylan Grundy as an OA this year - IMO, Haas is a similar player. He has given us good service, but not sure that he brings enough to the table as an OA. I think we need to find another top 4 d-man - perhaps via FA, or perhaps via the draft. Agree that White will need to show large improvement to be back ... same with Nicholson - I would expect his role will be filled by a younger player from the draft. We don't really have any prospects waiting in the wings, unless one of the Americans surprisingly reports - so we will be dependent on FAs and the 2014 draft to fill out our D. Up front, we look to return 12 guys (Lalonde, Barbashev, Johnson, Simpson, Tkachev, Halabi, Pugsley, Garland, Smith, Seegar, Bower and Olivier). They all look fairly safe to make the team to me - Halabi would be the only questionable one, but presumably they will keep someone around for toughness, so it may as well be him unless something better comes along. Jacob, Lane Cormier, and Eric Leger should all have a good chance to crack the roster as 17 y/o's ... Not a lot of openings beyond that - I don't really see anyone else among our current prospects as serious candidates. I disagree on Haas. He is a solid #5 but not quite a #4. The big difference between him and Grundy is that we don't have to trade to get Haas. For me, Haas should be the captain of this team ... not Lalonde. Lalonde was a bit of a disappointment in the playoffs and does not lead by example ... while Haas does. I agree with your evaluation of Haas as a #5 but not quite a #4 ... on the team we had this year. If you are trying to ice a team in the top third of the Q, IMO, he is not close to a top 4 d-man. And IMO, using a 20 y/o spot on a 3rd pairing d-man is questionable asset management. I also agree with you that Haas brings leadership ... and where we already have him, and are not really at a point in our cycle where we would want to go out and deal assets for another OA, I don't really have a problem with him being one of our 3 OAs to start the season. But if we are planning on him as part of our top 4 on defense (same as Klebanskyj I alluded to in my earlier post), then IMO, we need an upgrade on defense. Not sure how I feel re: Lalonde vs. Haas as captain - I think my pick would have been Barbashev. I am not one who believes your captain needs to be your best player ... but I do think he should be one of your key players who is likely to be on the ice in key situations ... A captain loses some effectiveness, again IMO, if he is stapled to the bench at key moments.
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Post by WildcatMapleLeafs on Mar 31, 2014 14:13:46 GMT -4
Dubeau Rioux
Sweeney - Holwell Johnston - FA/Trade Klebanskyj - Haas
#7 = Nicholson/prospect/FA/Malatesta
Tkachev Simpson Barbashev Lalonde Johnson Garland Bower Pugsley Smith Seeger Jacob Olivier Halabi Cormier Leger
Forwards are pretty well set. A free agent dman would be nice , ala Yarwood/Eastman type. Maybe we could acquire a cheap top-4 overager to replace Haas. An offensive minded or even two-way guy would be a good fit since we have a fairly defensive minded , hard nosed , stay-at-home core.
Some reasonably priced overage options:
(* means unlikely available)
Lucas Pozgay - Victo Julien Leduc - Victo * Dominic Poulin - BC Sebastien Gauthier - Sha *Jeremy Fraser- Val d'Or Dominic Talbot-Tassi - BLB Micheal Abbott - SJ
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Post by Penguins23® on Mar 31, 2014 14:39:46 GMT -4
I wonder how much Talbot-Tassi would cost, I'd love to have him in a Cats uniform.
He was traded WITH a first round pick for Bahl. To me, that doesn't show he has great value and he'll be a 20 year old as opposed to 19 so he shouldn't cost too much.
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Post by WildcatMapleLeafs on Mar 31, 2014 14:59:57 GMT -4
I wonder how much Talbot-Tassi would cost, I'd love to have him in a Cats uniform. He was traded WITH a first round pick for Bahl. To me, that doesn't show he has great value and he'll be a 20 year old as opposed to 19 so he shouldn't cost too much. This is who I'd target the most. Even if we had to send a forward and a mid pick. It's hard to gauge values on overagers , they tend to vary from year to year. Campagna was a PPG player and only cost a 10th , that was upgraded to an 8th. I'd gladly give up a 4th. That might not get it done by itself though...
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Post by Ragin' Cajun on Mar 31, 2014 19:27:15 GMT -4
what do we have for draft picks next year?
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Post by Captain Obvious on Apr 1, 2014 10:10:50 GMT -4
I'll repost what I just put in another thread in regards to the future...
Most of the core will be gone after next year(Barbashev Lalonde Dubeau Tkachev), unless they can contend next year, they will be rebuilding again in 15-16.
They have a few good players younger than 1995, but not nearly enough to build a strong core with, and no 2014 1st rounder. Garland and Holwell appear to be potential future core players, after that it's mostly 3rd liners and #4-5 d-men
Though this year was a bit better than expected, there is no clear plan to contend any time soon.
Thoughts?
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Post by Captain Obvious on Apr 1, 2014 10:14:04 GMT -4
OK ... lets get started on next year. I'll break it down by age first and then position. Caissie and Donnelly are our only losses (at this point) ... although I guess you can add Campagna to that. 17 YOs (next season) Olivier, Holwell, Bower ... and Jacob is expected in, plus perhaps Lane Cormier 18 YOs (next season) Smith, Seegar, Garland, Klebanskyj, Nicholson, White, Rioux, Pugsley 19 YOs (next season) Simpson, Johnson, Johnston, Sweeney, Halabi, Tkachev, Barbashev 20 YOs (next season) Lalonde, Dubeau, Haas Goaltenders are set ... Dubeau and Rioux will be a good tandem, with Rioux's workload increasing next year. Defense looks good ... Sweeney and Johnston will anchor a pretty solid group. Holwell, Haas and Klebanskyj will battle for Top 4 positions, and Nicholson playing a regular role in the 5/6 slots. I can't see them breaking camp next year with White unless he grows into his body a little better ... he seemed to grow 2 or 3 inches to what looked like about 6'7", which is quite awkward at 17. They'll want to add a Dman or 2 from the draft. Forwards ... lets leave the Euros out of it for a moment. Lalonde and Garland will provide solid offense, and I expect that Simpson and Smith will contribute in a bigger way. I'm very excited about what Bower and Olivier will do as they were excellent in the playoffs. I'm not sure that we need Halabi back as a 19 YO 4th liner. Jacob is going to be a very good Jr player and I expect something similar to what Garland brings after he has adjusted to the speed of the league. Seegar is a bit of an anomaly for me ... I'm not fond of his skating but he does like to go to the net and score by picking up the garbage. Pugsley probably takes on a 3rd line role, but I expect more offense from him as he is a former scoring champ of the NSMAAA as a 15 YO. He certainly works hard and has very good speed. The real issue is our Euros. I don't expect Barbashev to go high in the draft and I expect he'll be late 1st at best. If he is a first then I believe that means we can draft another Euro in his place and wait and see if he is back. I'm 98% certain he will be back for his 19 YO season but stranger things have happened. Hopefully he goes in Rd 1 and allows us to draft another Euro .. and then returns for his 19 YO season. Tkachev is a whole 'nother situation. My understanding is he wants to come back ... but the deal we have with his KHL team is a one year thing and so we'll need to renegotiate to get him back here. His strong showing here might mean he jumps up to the big club in the KHL, and if he is drafted fairly high (2nd Rd ?) they might want to bring him back away from NA and lock him up. I don't know. But the problem it creates is that we have to know what is going on before the Import Draft in June. If Barbashev is drafted in Rd 1 then it allows some flexibility. We only get 2 Euro picks, can't trade up ... and can't use either of them if we want Barbashev and Tkachev back. If they are both back ... great ... I think we might even contend or at least go deep into the playoffs. If Tkachev is unavailable then we draft another guy but doubtful you find a guy like him. Going forward ... with the restrictions on Euros and Euro picks, having 2 Euros the same age is not a good idea. If Barbashev and Tkachev are both back, it means we have to replace both the next season with what should be a 1st rd pick about 75% into the round ... and a similar 2nd rounder. Our 15/16 season is likely where we want to contend and that won't work well with that timing. Another option is to deal Barbashev and Tkachev as a package to Quebec who are expected to host the Mem Cup next year. We'd take their Euros next year (at Xmas), plus picks and prospects/players. They are likely losing all 3 Euros they have now as they are all 19 (one is 25) ... so we could have a say in who they pick. A deal would have to be made obviously. Barbashev should go mid 1st rd in the draft. even with the Russian factor I can't see him going past the 35th pick.
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Post by jimmy on Apr 1, 2014 10:31:33 GMT -4
I'll repost what I just put in another thread in regards to the future... Most of the core will be gone after next year(Barbashev Lalonde Dubeau Tkachev), unless they can contend next year, they will be rebuilding again in 15-16. They have a few good players younger than 1995, but not nearly enough to build a strong core with, and no 2014 1st rounder. Garland and Holwell appear to be potential future core players, after that it's mostly 3rd liners and #4-5 d-men Though this year was a bit better than expected, there is no clear plan to contend any time soon. Thoughts? Agree wholeheartedly ... to me it is either next year, or 2016/17 (or beyond) ... If it is next year, we are going to have to mortgage the future, and we are already still paying off our last spending spree - our pick and prospect cupboard is still not fully stocked. I think buying next year would be setting us up for a long run of futility in years to come. If we could convert Barbashev, Tkachev, Dubeau, Lalonde, Sweeney into younger players over the next 9 months, that would be ideal, but it will be easier said than done (euros and OAs being hard to deal for full value). We are stuck in no-man's land - a long way from a contender, but with a strong veteran core that means we are't rebuilding either.
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Post by DropThePuck on Apr 1, 2014 11:12:15 GMT -4
I think you will see Irving mortgage the future and look to contend next year....(assuming he knows he'll have both Euros return) I believe he will want to build around Dubeau, the Euros, Garland...etc. I'm not sure how I feel about that scenario. They will need an upgrade or two on defense and will also need more depth up front....with all of this coming at a price! I look forward to next year already....
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Post by Captain Obvious on Apr 1, 2014 11:36:41 GMT -4
I think you will see Irving mortgage the future and look to contend next year....(assuming he knows he'll have both Euros return) I believe he will want to build around Dubeau, the Euros, Garland...etc. I'm not sure how I feel about that scenario. They will need an upgrade or two on defense and will also need more depth up front....with all of this coming at a price! I look forward to next year already.... I think they lack skill on defense and size up front to truly contend next year...that's even if you empty the cupboards.
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Post by Porkchop on Apr 1, 2014 11:43:52 GMT -4
Moncton had the JR cycle working pretty good for them the last couple of times....won the cup in '06 and '10...the mistake was going for it last year, when everybody knew that nobody was beating Halifax...if they had let some of those high end assets go at Christmas last season, this playoffs right now would be a great one and next year could have been better.
Looking at what you have right now, it's a pretty solid group, but still missing a few solid pieces to be a true contender......all of this depends on whether your Euros come back, and if you have enough in the cupboards to get those pieces you need. Selling next season might be the best bet, setting you up for the season after.
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