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Post by SteveUL on Jan 15, 2015 9:08:31 GMT -4
Today we sit in 1st in the Maritime Division with 59 pts, and 1st overall in the Q with a 2 pt lead over Rimouski ... with equal games played. We have a 5 pt lead on SJ (54 pts) with a game in hand. BBL sits in 3rd, 4 pts behind us with equal games played. Quebec is 4th at 55 pts but we have 2 games in hand on them.
I have no illusions of how good we are and how we stack up against the other top teams. We are in that mix, but in a 7 game series we very likely lose to Rimouski and Quebec, and would be in tough to knock out BBL ... but so would they be with us.
But because we play in a weaker division ... and because SJ made deals that weakened them for the short term ... ... we have a very good chance of staying in 1st in our division the rest of the way. That also means we'll finish in the top three with the seeding system for division winners.
But because the East division is so tough ... Rimouski and Quebec will have a tougher time catching and staying ahead of us ... us finishing 1st overall is not that far of a reach. I expect both Rimouski and Quebec to go on a tear now that their players are all back and we'll have to match them to stay ahead. I don't think we can do that.
I'd rather finish 2nd overall ... and face the 3rd seed in Rd 3 ... if we manage to get there. If you finish 1st overall, you are probably facing Quebec or Rimouski in Rd 3 ... whichever gets 4th seed. If we get 2nd or even 3rd seed ... there is a very good chance that we face BBL in Rd 3 ... a series that could go 7 games and a series that we could win as easily as we could lose it.
If Quebec were to knock out Rimouski in Rd 3 ... and we knock out BBL ... then we get a free back door ticket to the Memorial Cup. We'll get crushed at the Memorial Cup because we simply aren't built for that ... but I'm not worried about that.
Obviously ... getting to Rd 3 is not a given with the parity in the league ... and getting out of Rd 1 will be a battle for pretty much all teams. Injuries down the road will greatly affect us because we don't have the depth of the other top teams ... and our goaltending needs to be stellar. But ... if we can maintain the 0.702 ... lately we have been playing at about a rate of 8-2 in 10 games which is 0.800 ... we could get that 1st or 2nd seed.
I honestly don't want 1st overall. It is nice to claim that title at season's end ... but it is a meaningless title that means even less if you don't win the Prez Cup. In my opinion, we just need to stay ahead of BBL and SJ.
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Post by catnut on Jan 15, 2015 9:19:00 GMT -4
But how often do we see 1-2-3-4 in the semis? It would take just one upset to avoid Que/Rim.
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Post by SteveUL on Jan 15, 2015 9:53:26 GMT -4
But how often do we see 1-2-3-4 in the semis? It would take just one upset to avoid Que/Rim. I agree. But if I look at each of these current Top 4 tams ... we are the most likely to get knocked out early. No matter who we line up with in Rd 1 ... we'll have to really battle to win. Any sort of injury to a key player and we'll be done. I see each of those other 3 teams having more depth than we do ... and I think they are all likely to get to Rd 3. Are we ? We could ... but could easily lose in Rd 1 or 2. The one good thing for us this year ... if we buy a playoff package we have a good chance to use all 16 tickets. |
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Post by catnut on Jan 15, 2015 10:11:52 GMT -4
But how often do we see 1-2-3-4 in the semis? It would take just one upset to avoid Que/Rim. I agree. But if I look at each of these current Top 4 tams ... we are the most likely to get knocked out early. No matter who we line up with in Rd 1 ... we'll have to really battle to win. Any sort of injury to a key player and we'll be done. I see each of those other 3 teams having more depth than we do ... and I think they are all likely to get to Rd 3. Are we ? We could ... but could easily lose in Rd 1 or 2. The one good thing for us this year ... if we buy a playoff package we have a good chance to use all 16 tickets. But by finishing first, any upset gives the Cats a (statistically) more favourable opponent. From what I've seen of this Cats team, they are already geared up for playoff hockey. The complete opposite of the 2013 team. Anything is possible. I just wish they had managed to pick up a 2nd Euro for more offensive punch. I still doubt I'll buy the playoff package.  |
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Post by SteveUL on Jan 15, 2015 10:36:59 GMT -4
I agree. But if I look at each of these current Top 4 tams ... we are the most likely to get knocked out early. No matter who we line up with in Rd 1 ... we'll have to really battle to win. Any sort of injury to a key player and we'll be done. I see each of those other 3 teams having more depth than we do ... and I think they are all likely to get to Rd 3. Are we ? We could ... but could easily lose in Rd 1 or 2. The one good thing for us this year ... if we buy a playoff package we have a good chance to use all 16 tickets. But by finishing first, any upset gives the Cats a (statistically) more favourable opponent. From what I've seen of this Cats team, they are already geared up for playoff hockey. The complete opposite of the 2013 team. Anything is possible. I just wish they had managed to pick up a 2nd Euro for more offensive punch. I still doubt I'll buy the playoff package. I know you won't ... but I will. Is it really a "statistically more favourable opponent" ? Where we play in different divisions and differing strengths of schedule ... and we only rank the teams by points accumulated and no other variables ... is the 16th place team a more statistically favourable matchup than say the 14th place team ? |
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Post by jimmy on Jan 15, 2015 10:58:12 GMT -4
But by finishing first, any upset gives the Cats a (statistically) more favourable opponent. From what I've seen of this Cats team, they are already geared up for playoff hockey. The complete opposite of the 2013 team. Anything is possible. I just wish they had managed to pick up a 2nd Euro for more offensive punch. I still doubt I'll buy the playoff package. I know you won't ... but I will. Is it really a "statistically more favourable opponent" ? Where we play in different divisions and differing strengths of schedule ... and we only rank the teams by points accumulated and no other variables ... is the 16th place team a more statistically favourable matchup than say the 14th place team ? With the parity this year, it is pretty much a crapshoot - I think if you can avoid Quebec/Rimouski in the 3rd round, you may get a backdoor ticket to the Mem Cup if Quebec takes out Rimouski ... that said, upsets will no doubt occur, and I agree that this seems to be a year where the the difference in strength between the 12th seed and 14th seed for example would appear to be negligible and probably more dependent on how the individual teams match up than anything else. May as well finish as high as possible and guarantee home ice as long as you can. |
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Post by mooseinfo on Jan 15, 2015 11:15:09 GMT -4
I think the chance of Moncton and BLB losing in the 2nd round is just as likely considering the teams that could be in the 7 or 8 position. It will perhaps be luck of the draw so what are the odds you both win. IMO its best to be 1st overall as that is likely the best chance to luck out. Teams like Sags, Gat, CB could be 8th in 2nd round.
Often the 8th best team has burned some of their life to get there in a hard series. I think you have to hope for an upset that either gets Rimouski out or playing Quebec as 2 vs 3. BLB likely beats you in a playoff anyway especially in your better division theory. At least historically first overall is a booby prize with home ice.
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Post by SteveUL on Jan 15, 2015 11:38:29 GMT -4
I think the chance of Moncton and BLB losing in the 2nd round is just as likely considering the teams that could be in the 7 or 8 position. It will perhaps be luck of the draw so what are the odds you both win. IMO its best to be 1st overall as that is likely the best chance to luck out. Teams like Sags, Gat, CB could be 8th in 2nd round. Often the 8th best team has burned some of their life to get there in a hard series. I think you have to hope for an upset that either gets Rimouski out or playing Quebec as 2 vs 3. BLB likely beats you in a playoff anyway especially in your better division theory. At least historically first overall is a booby prize with home ice. With a healthy roster ... and goaltending that we have come to expect from Dubeau ... I think we can beat BLB in a 7 game series ... and they can just as easily beat us. I think it is too close to call between them and us. I have no illusions about beating Quebec or Rimouski. And if we were to get a backdoor ticket to the Mem Cup ... we would embarrass the Q. |
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Post by Captain Obvious on Jan 15, 2015 11:51:09 GMT -4
I think the chance of Moncton and BLB losing in the 2nd round is just as likely considering the teams that could be in the 7 or 8 position. It will perhaps be luck of the draw so what are the odds you both win. IMO its best to be 1st overall as that is likely the best chance to luck out. Teams like Sags, Gat, CB could be 8th in 2nd round. Often the 8th best team has burned some of their life to get there in a hard series. I think you have to hope for an upset that either gets Rimouski out or playing Quebec as 2 vs 3. BLB likely beats you in a playoff anyway especially in your better division theory. At least historically first overall is a booby prize with home ice. With a healthy roster ... and goaltending that we have come to expect from Dubeau ... I think we can beat BLB in a 7 game series ... and they can just as easily beat us. I think it is too close to call between them and us. I have no illusions about beating Quebec or Rimouski. And if we were to get a backdoor ticket to the Mem Cup ... we would embarrass the Q. It depends if you are talking about the Dubeau of last year(top 3-4 in the Q) or this year(slightly above average). His playoff track record has not been great either. |
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Post by SteveUL on Jan 15, 2015 13:39:16 GMT -4
With a healthy roster ... and goaltending that we have come to expect from Dubeau ... I think we can beat BLB in a 7 game series ... and they can just as easily beat us. I think it is too close to call between them and us. I have no illusions about beating Quebec or Rimouski. And if we were to get a backdoor ticket to the Mem Cup ... we would embarrass the Q. It depends if you are talking about the Dubeau of last year(top 3-4 in the Q) or this year(slightly above average). His playoff track record has not been great either. Which Dubeau do you expect ? I expect the better one ... I'm disappointed when we don't get him. But I know he can be that good so expect the good. Last year vs BLB he was very good if I recall ... but we got beat by a better team. The year before the entire team was a shit-show and I couldn't expect him to be any better than anybody else. |
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Post by Captain Obvious on Jan 15, 2015 14:03:10 GMT -4
It depends if you are talking about the Dubeau of last year(top 3-4 in the Q) or this year(slightly above average). His playoff track record has not been great either. Which Dubeau do you expect ? I expect the better one ... I'm disappointed when we don't get him. But I know he can be that good so expect the good. Last year vs BLB he was very good if I recall ... but we got beat by a better team. The year before the entire team was a shit-show and I couldn't expect him to be any better than anybody else. Against Victo he was a big part of the shitshow. The team started really struggling because they couldn't trust him to stop anything. |
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Post by SteveUL on Jan 15, 2015 14:16:34 GMT -4
Which Dubeau do you expect ? I expect the better one ... I'm disappointed when we don't get him. But I know he can be that good so expect the good. Last year vs BLB he was very good if I recall ... but we got beat by a better team. The year before the entire team was a shit-show and I couldn't expect him to be any better than anybody else. Against Victo he was a big part of the shitshow. The team started really struggling because they couldn't trust him to stop anything. Right ... and he was 18 at the time .. and not part of the leadership core of that team. At 19 he was solid and held us in just about every game until we decided to work hard in the final period. Last year he was part of the leadership core and we over-achieved because of it ... and we are again this year even though his numbers are off. I know he can be better ... we have seen it periodically this year where he has been great. |
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Post by Don Draper on Jan 15, 2015 17:12:58 GMT -4
Which Dubeau do you expect ? I expect the better one ... I'm disappointed when we don't get him. But I know he can be that good so expect the good. Last year vs BLB he was very good if I recall ... but we got beat by a better team. The year before the entire team was a shit-show and I couldn't expect him to be any better than anybody else. Against Victo he was a big part of the shitshow. The team started really struggling because they couldn't trust him to stop anything. They also struggled because certain players had one hand on the Wildcats' bus door and another hand on the door to the plane that was taking them to their next (pro) destination... and they struggled because they didn't care enough to adjust their game to defeat what Jean was throwing at them (and/or didn't listen to how Flynn intended on making that adjustment)... and they struggled because the most talented players on that club were playing for themselves and were horrendously cliquish... and I'm not just talking about the Shawinigan boys, either. A fair number of key players on that team could've cared less is they trusted Dubeau or not... because they were already in the uniform of their next team, mentally. Or thought they were bigger than the Cats uniform they already had on. Or both. Dubeau was a part of it, yes. But a lack of confidence in him was not the root of the issue. |
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