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Post by Captain Obvious on Apr 24, 2020 11:31:51 GMT -4
Once a province is at 0 cases for 10 days, the only way the virus comes in is by somebody bringing it in. That's the point of isolation. Obviously Ontario and Quebec are not at the same stage, but most of their cases are in care homes. I don't think it takes 18 months to get Quebec and NS at 0 if it's handled properly. not even close. Isolation periods are 14 days. Not 10. That kills that talk. Youd have infected people going out for 4 days. You are also using a wild assumption that everyone who needs testing has been tested. Its not about getting to 0 cases before we start doing things again. You seem to ignore that we keep being told of 2nd and 3rd waves of this because you cant keep everyone out forever and no dataset is 100% full proof. They isolate travellers for 14 days because of the 7-10 day delay in developping. After that point, you either never had it or your body's antibodies fought it off. I agree getting testing would help everybody, especially in areas where it's running wild(NY for example). In order to have a new "wave" people have to get infected by somebody else, it doesn't fall from the sky. The virus came to NA on travellers from the Far East and Europe. |
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Post by catnut on Apr 24, 2020 11:57:07 GMT -4
Isolation periods are 14 days. Not 10. That kills that talk. Youd have infected people going out for 4 days. You are also using a wild assumption that everyone who needs testing has been tested. Its not about getting to 0 cases before we start doing things again. You seem to ignore that we keep being told of 2nd and 3rd waves of this because you cant keep everyone out forever and no dataset is 100% full proof. They isolate travellers for 14 days because of the 7-10 day delay in developping. After that point, you either never had it or your body's antibodies fought it off. I agree getting testing would help everybody, especially in areas where it's running wild(NY for example). In order to have a new "wave" people have to get infected by somebody else, it doesn't fall from the sky. The virus came to NA on travellers from the Far East and Europe. The problem is the virus is already present in NA and not just in seniors' homes. The second wave WILL happen when measures are relaxed and most people go back to living their lives as they did before because the number of cases is minimal. Then people who are asymptomatic are walking around Walmart, the beach, campgrounds, etc. where people will gather and the cases will flare faster because it will start from everywhere. Large gatherings (weddings, funerals, concerts, sports events) will be the hotspots for transmission. |
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Post by Jack Bauer on Apr 24, 2020 12:16:10 GMT -4
Isolation periods are 14 days. Not 10. That kills that talk. Youd have infected people going out for 4 days. You are also using a wild assumption that everyone who needs testing has been tested. Its not about getting to 0 cases before we start doing things again. You seem to ignore that we keep being told of 2nd and 3rd waves of this because you cant keep everyone out forever and no dataset is 100% full proof. They isolate travellers for 14 days because of the 7-10 day delay in developping. After that point, you either never had it or your body's antibodies fought it off. I agree getting testing would help everybody, especially in areas where it's running wild(NY for example). In order to have a new "wave" people have to get infected by somebody else, it doesn't fall from the sky. The virus came to NA on travellers from the Far East and Europe. I look at it like this: In order for hockey to be played the world has to essentially be back to normal re: travel, economy, etc. So your 0 cases for 10 days only matters if you plan to somehow restrict travel to only places with 0 cases (impossible) or still think travelers coming home will take a 14 day isolation....including those just crossing your provincial border. Testing or vaccination or immunity through everyone having had it in way more then 2 provinces is needed before the CHL can play. If everyones numbers globally miraculously hit 0 new cases and 0 new deaths over the next say 60 days for your 10 day period and social restrictions are lifted and things stay that way....I think we could see hockey in late September as normal. But it's like you're ignoring whats happening on 3 of your 4 borders with the 3-4 week talk. And your "new wave" of people can come from anywhere. In terms of outside your own city/provincial border. You're right that the virus was brought here but we also have no idea no who, when it got here, how long it took to really start to spread, and how to successfully fight it. So because of all that it's going to keep going around the world in random places based on things we can't control within certain population demographics. Your local seniors, in Moncton and NB if there's 0 bases for a few weeks, risk being infected by anyone and everyone coming and going from the city and province when there's a nursing home 300KM away with 80 infected people in it. So it's not about it falling from the sky any more. It's in Halifax and Sydney and in the province of Quebec and in the state of Maine. In large numbers in some places. |
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Post by Jack Bauer on Apr 24, 2020 12:20:36 GMT -4
They isolate travellers for 14 days because of the 7-10 day delay in developping. After that point, you either never had it or your body's antibodies fought it off. I agree getting testing would help everybody, especially in areas where it's running wild(NY for example). In order to have a new "wave" people have to get infected by somebody else, it doesn't fall from the sky. The virus came to NA on travellers from the Far East and Europe. The problem is the virus is already present in NA and not just in seniors' homes. The second wave WILL happen when measures are relaxed and most people go back to living their lives as they did before because the number of cases is minimal. Then people who are asymptomatic are walking around Walmart, the beach, campgrounds, etc. where people will gather and the cases will flare faster because it will start from everywhere. Large gatherings (weddings, funerals, concerts, sports events) will be the hotspots for transmission. Exactly. Up to 80 cases in Newfoundland were traced to 1 person going to a funeral during the isolation period. Imagine if we were ALL going to funerals in a few months time as we would have 6 months ago and the 2nd wave is here and we don't know it and there's 5 people at that funeral who have it. And there's a Q game later that evening...the sold out home opener. Like it was here before we started isolating and didn't know until cases started coming back (with delays as they had to be done in Winnipeg I believe until provinces realized they needed more local/centralized testing closer to the disease) |
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Post by SteveUL on Apr 24, 2020 12:42:06 GMT -4
That would make Pelletier and Spence untradable and in no world is that good for us. We might open up in January but then we could be closed back down in March as wave two or three hit us. What wave? If you don't let people from infected countries come there are no other waves. We are only having low numbers now because we are shut down and staying away from each other. Put 4000 people into a rink and watch it grow back up real quick. I don't think we'd get big crowds because many will just want to stay away. As soon as we relax our restrictions and we all get back to work and back to mingling, we will have another outbreak. It may be small and initially less than the first wave of 118 cases, but if we stay out there and don't lock down again, it will grow quickly. So we could start a new season and then be shut down within a month. Where would it come from ? Well some people still have it and don't realize it. We have healthcare workers living on both sides of the borders in NS and Que that work in NB, and vice versa, and many others that come and go from the Province because they are deemed essential. Many of our players will come in from Quebec and NS. Until they get a handle on this in Quebec and NS, our league is dead in the water. |
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Post by Captain Obvious on Apr 24, 2020 14:12:41 GMT -4
What wave? If you don't let people from infected countries come there are no other waves. We are only having low numbers now because we are shut down and staying away from each other. Put 4000 people into a rink and watch it grow back up real quick. I don't think we'd get big crowds because many will just want to stay away. As soon as we relax our restrictions and we all get back to work and back to mingling, we will have another outbreak. It may be small and initially less than the first wave of 118 cases, but if we stay out there and don't lock down again, it will grow quickly. So we could start a new season and then be shut down within a month. Where would it come from ? Well some people still have it and don't realize it. We have healthcare workers living on both sides of the borders in NS and Que that work in NB, and vice versa, and many others that come and go from the Province because they are deemed essential. Many of our players will come in from Quebec and NS. Until they get a handle on this in Quebec and NS, our league is dead in the water. So you stay shut down to places until they have 100% control of the situation. Close the US border until 2021. Keep Quebec closed until they get control, same for NS. The virus needs people to transport it, it won't travel without people. |
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Post by Captain Obvious on Apr 24, 2020 14:17:22 GMT -4
They isolate travellers for 14 days because of the 7-10 day delay in developping. After that point, you either never had it or your body's antibodies fought it off. I agree getting testing would help everybody, especially in areas where it's running wild(NY for example). In order to have a new "wave" people have to get infected by somebody else, it doesn't fall from the sky. The virus came to NA on travellers from the Far East and Europe. I look at it like this: In order for hockey to be played the world has to essentially be back to normal re: travel, economy, etc. So your 0 cases for 10 days only matters if you plan to somehow restrict travel to only places with 0 cases (impossible) or still think travelers coming home will take a 14 day isolation....including those just crossing your provincial border. Testing or vaccination or immunity through everyone having had it in way more then 2 provinces is needed before the CHL can play. If everyones numbers globally miraculously hit 0 new cases and 0 new deaths over the next say 60 days for your 10 day period and social restrictions are lifted and things stay that way....I think we could see hockey in late September as normal. But it's like you're ignoring whats happening on 3 of your 4 borders with the 3-4 week talk. And your "new wave" of people can come from anywhere. In terms of outside your own city/provincial border. You're right that the virus was brought here but we also have no idea no who, when it got here, how long it took to really start to spread, and how to successfully fight it. So because of all that it's going to keep going around the world in random places based on things we can't control within certain population demographics. Your local seniors, in Moncton and NB if there's 0 bases for a few weeks, risk being infected by anyone and everyone coming and going from the city and province when there's a nursing home 300KM away with 80 infected people in it. So it's not about it falling from the sky any more. It's in Halifax and Sydney and in the province of Quebec and in the state of Maine. In large numbers in some places. NB could be back to normal within a month. Obviously Quebec and Ontario will require a lot more time. If you have zero cases and your border is shut down, how will the virus get in? |
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Post by jimmy on Apr 24, 2020 14:32:53 GMT -4
NB just announced no festivals or large scale sporting events until Dec 31/2020.
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Post by Jack Bauer on Apr 24, 2020 14:51:00 GMT -4
NB could be back to normal within a month. Obviously Quebec and Ontario will require a lot more time. If you have zero cases and your border is shut down, how will the virus get in? Is this where you're going with this now? NB just isn't going to open up borders? I can fly into Moncton from Quebec right now with the virus. There's Trump loving laborers working in Ft Mac right now who will fly back to your province in 2-3 weeks and you don't know if they'll have the virus or not. Or whether they're isolate when they come home. You closing your border forever is another story. It's not even REALLY closed right now other then to travelers...I can work in NS and live in NB and drive back and forth and not have the virus myself for 3 more weeks. You closing your border forever is another story. But absolutely nothing you're saying here makes sense or lines up with reality. |
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Post by ysj28 on Apr 24, 2020 14:51:56 GMT -4
I look at it like this: In order for hockey to be played the world has to essentially be back to normal re: travel, economy, etc. So your 0 cases for 10 days only matters if you plan to somehow restrict travel to only places with 0 cases (impossible) or still think travelers coming home will take a 14 day isolation....including those just crossing your provincial border. Testing or vaccination or immunity through everyone having had it in way more then 2 provinces is needed before the CHL can play. If everyones numbers globally miraculously hit 0 new cases and 0 new deaths over the next say 60 days for your 10 day period and social restrictions are lifted and things stay that way....I think we could see hockey in late September as normal. But it's like you're ignoring whats happening on 3 of your 4 borders with the 3-4 week talk. And your "new wave" of people can come from anywhere. In terms of outside your own city/provincial border. You're right that the virus was brought here but we also have no idea no who, when it got here, how long it took to really start to spread, and how to successfully fight it. So because of all that it's going to keep going around the world in random places based on things we can't control within certain population demographics. Your local seniors, in Moncton and NB if there's 0 bases for a few weeks, risk being infected by anyone and everyone coming and going from the city and province when there's a nursing home 300KM away with 80 infected people in it. So it's not about it falling from the sky any more. It's in Halifax and Sydney and in the province of Quebec and in the state of Maine. In large numbers in some places. NB could be back to normal within a month. Obviously Quebec and Ontario will require a lot more time. If you have zero cases and your border is shut down, how will the virus get in? Well, Blaine Higgs sure shut you down. Here's how the virus gets in - let's say you got a trucker transporting food who is asymptomatic (essential worker) that came from Maine, or Quebec, or NS. Has the virus, decides to go out to his parents house who are having a big ole shin dig - passes it to his parents, brothers, sisters, nephews - who then pass it to all of their friends. Then you are back to where you started.
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Post by Captain Obvious on Apr 24, 2020 14:55:24 GMT -4
NB could be back to normal within a month. Obviously Quebec and Ontario will require a lot more time. If you have zero cases and your border is shut down, how will the virus get in? Well, Blaine Higgs sure shut you down. Here's how the virus gets in - let's say you got a trucker transporting food who is asymptomatic (essential worker) that came from Maine, or Quebec, or NS. Has the virus, decides to go out to his parents house who are having a big ole shin dig - passes it to his parents, brothers, sisters, nephews - who then pass it to all of their friends. Then you are back to where you started.
The important part is identifying who and where it is. Random people should not have it if those affected are isolated. those in care homes with a lot of sick people can't socialize, most don't even go to the grocery store. |
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Post by Jack Bauer on Apr 24, 2020 15:14:12 GMT -4
Well, Blaine Higgs sure shut you down. Here's how the virus gets in - let's say you got a trucker transporting food who is asymptomatic (essential worker) that came from Maine, or Quebec, or NS. Has the virus, decides to go out to his parents house who are having a big ole shin dig - passes it to his parents, brothers, sisters, nephews - who then pass it to all of their friends. Then you are back to where you started.
The important part is identifying who and where it is. Random people should not have it if those affected are isolated. those in care homes with a lot of sick people can't socialize, most don't even go to the grocery store. Why do you keep talking in circles and ignoring key points? NOT EVERYONE WHO HAS THIS KNOW THEY HAVE IT. That trucker example....he might not know he has it. And not 100% of people coming in have to isolate. People can follow the rules and bring it in. Why can't someone in a care home catch it after restrictions are lifted and start another spread at a family function? |
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Post by ysj28 on Apr 24, 2020 15:23:59 GMT -4
Well, Blaine Higgs sure shut you down. Here's how the virus gets in - let's say you got a trucker transporting food who is asymptomatic (essential worker) that came from Maine, or Quebec, or NS. Has the virus, decides to go out to his parents house who are having a big ole shin dig - passes it to his parents, brothers, sisters, nephews - who then pass it to all of their friends. Then you are back to where you started.
The important part is identifying who and where it is. Random people should not have it if those affected are isolated. those in care homes with a lot of sick people can't socialize, most don't even go to the grocery store. And if you didn't know - there are still planes coming over from Europe bringing Canadians home. Who's to say they don't have the virus? Who's to say they are going to follow the rules and self-isolate for 14 days?
You really should quit talking about subjects you don't have a clue about.
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Post by SteveUL on Apr 24, 2020 15:34:32 GMT -4
Well, Blaine Higgs sure shut you down. Here's how the virus gets in - let's say you got a trucker transporting food who is asymptomatic (essential worker) that came from Maine, or Quebec, or NS. Has the virus, decides to go out to his parents house who are having a big ole shin dig - passes it to his parents, brothers, sisters, nephews - who then pass it to all of their friends. Then you are back to where you started.
The important part is identifying who and where it is. Random people should not have it if those affected are isolated. those in care homes with a lot of sick people can't socialize, most don't even go to the grocery store. "Most" ... there is your problem. If everybody was following the rules then we could squash this quickly. We are doing well in NB but there are still many people, not most, that downplay the risk as nothing or don't grasp the idea of social distancing or staying home. I've watched my 74 yr old neighbour across the street get in her car 4 times today and go out somewhere. I might have been in my car 4 times this month. All it takes is one person to be careless and reckless and we can start all over. |
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Post by Captain Obvious on Apr 24, 2020 16:15:44 GMT -4
The important part is identifying who and where it is. Random people should not have it if those affected are isolated. those in care homes with a lot of sick people can't socialize, most don't even go to the grocery store. Why do you keep talking in circles and ignoring key points? NOT EVERYONE WHO HAS THIS KNOW THEY HAVE IT. That trucker example....he might not know he has it. And not 100% of people coming in have to isolate. People can follow the rules and bring it in. Why can't someone in a care home catch it after restrictions are lifted and start another spread at a family function? You can't catch it out of the blue, it has to be transferred. Truckers are obviously not spreading anything, there are virtually no cases in Nb and PEI and I'm sure there are 10k trucks going in and out of each province in a week. |
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