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Post by j3e4 on Apr 24, 2020 22:14:51 GMT -4
If the QMJHL plays in the fall of 2020, thinking it's safe to do so because there hasn't been a 2nd wave, that would almost certainly be the cause of the 2nd wave and could potentially be much worse than the first. A shortened season starting in 2021 is likely the best we can hope for. There will not be any Major Junior hockey in NB in the fall of 2020. NB has already said no festivals or gatherings until Dec 31 2020 (unless things change significantly). Quebec and NS are worse off - so I expect their government will impose the same restrictions. Governments aren't making these decisions without first consulting with the federal and other provincial governments about their own future plans. Yes I know. That was pretty much my point in response to a suggestion someone keeps making that it could happen. |
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Post by SteveUL on Apr 27, 2020 8:09:37 GMT -4
I look at it like this: In order for hockey to be played the world has to essentially be back to normal re: travel, economy, etc. So your 0 cases for 10 days only matters if you plan to somehow restrict travel to only places with 0 cases (impossible) or still think travelers coming home will take a 14 day isolation....including those just crossing your provincial border. Testing or vaccination or immunity through everyone having had it in way more then 2 provinces is needed before the CHL can play. If everyones numbers globally miraculously hit 0 new cases and 0 new deaths over the next say 60 days for your 10 day period and social restrictions are lifted and things stay that way....I think we could see hockey in late September as normal. But it's like you're ignoring whats happening on 3 of your 4 borders with the 3-4 week talk. And your "new wave" of people can come from anywhere. In terms of outside your own city/provincial border. You're right that the virus was brought here but we also have no idea no who, when it got here, how long it took to really start to spread, and how to successfully fight it. So because of all that it's going to keep going around the world in random places based on things we can't control within certain population demographics. Your local seniors, in Moncton and NB if there's 0 bases for a few weeks, risk being infected by anyone and everyone coming and going from the city and province when there's a nursing home 300KM away with 80 infected people in it. So it's not about it falling from the sky any more. It's in Halifax and Sydney and in the province of Quebec and in the state of Maine. In large numbers in some places. NB could be back to normal within a month. Obviously Quebec and Ontario will require a lot more time. If you have zero cases and your border is shut down, how will the virus get in? Our border is not "shut down". People that are essential services are permitted to cross back and forth. But the biggest one that I dislike is that if you come to one of our border crossings, and say you are travelling to NS, PEI, NFLD or Que, you are permitted to drive through NB to get to your destination ... no self-quarantining required before you travel through NB. There was a much publicized story of a gentleman that had been wintering in Florida, and drove from Florida to get to his home in PEI. He crossed into NB and told them he was travelling to PEI, so they let him through. When he got to the bridge he was blocked by PEI officials because they could not confirm that he had more than just a cottage in PEI, for various reasons that were well publicized. So they blocked him from entering PEI and so he was stuck in NB. At that moment he should have began his 14 day self-quarantine, and he did ... sort of. He slept in his car for at least one night ... maybe two, but that is not quarantining. He would have had to go out to get food and use the washroom. Then he decided that he'd drive to Ontario where he had family, so he drove up through NB, through Quebec, and into Ontario where he stopped in Kingston ... how many stops for gas and washroom breaks and food did he make ? Then he got word that his entry into PEI was approved, so he got back into his car and drove back through Ontario, back through Quebec, and back through NB (more stops required). Same thing happened in a non-publicized story. A woman in Ontario says that her son and his girlfriend (not living together), drove from Ontario, and entered NB at the Quebec border up past Edmundston. They told NB officials that they were travelling to NFLD, so they were permitted to drive through. They got through NB and were permitted entry to NS and drove to the ferry in North Sydney, and crossed into NFLD. They were just bored so they decided to take a trip and drove from Ontario to NFLD (they had family there), and a 4 days later they turned around and drove back home. How many other stories like that are there that we have not heard ? The fact that NB is a drive-thru province means that our borders are never closed. |
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Post by hal on Apr 27, 2020 8:19:24 GMT -4
......I don't necessarily disagree with your take on those scenarios ......... but look at the Big Picture ...you Guys must be doing the Vast Majority of things related to Covid 19 right ....The Numbers don't Lie .
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Post by SteveUL on Apr 27, 2020 8:29:00 GMT -4
......I don't necessarily disagree with your take on those scenarios ......... but look at the Big Picture ...you Guys must be doing the Vast Majority of things related to Covid 19 right ....The Numbers don't Lie . I get that ... but the question was "where would this second wave come from ?" Just pointing out the weaknesses in our system. |
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Post by Jack Bauer on Apr 27, 2020 9:00:54 GMT -4
......I don't necessarily disagree with your take on those scenarios ......... but look at the Big Picture ...you Guys must be doing the Vast Majority of things related to Covid 19 right ....The Numbers don't Lie . The issue is what was proven in Newfoundland: Every person doing their part can be completely ruined by just 1 person not doing so. NB is in great shape right now. But over the next few months just 1 person screwing up, intentionally or not, means you're right back to square 1 which could result in a wave much worse then this one. It's not a situation of "once we're clear, we're clear forever because our borders are closed" as some want you to believe based on some comments here. It's still touch and go until there's a vaccine for many larger gatherings. |
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