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Post by Mika on Jul 27, 2022 10:34:35 GMT -4
You don't need a Vasilevskiy to win the Cup though. Not that having him hurts your chances, but in the last 5 years Tampa is still 2/5 with Stanley Cups with him in net. It was hardly elite goalies beating him either. Holtby, Bobrovsky, and Kuemper.
You just need a decent goalie who can get the job done and the Leafs have the pieces to move to get that goalie. There's really no need to be scraping the bottom of the discount barrel for a goalie.
What's killed Toronto is outside of Reilly, their defence is just OK. Guys like Andersen and Campbell have done a good job, but the defence has let them down.
4-3 OT in game 6 on the road, and 2-1 in game 7. Hard to really blame that on goaltending.
They remind me a lot of the Caps from the 2010s. Solid team, but key pieces just vanish when it matters the most. Game 7 at home with the firepower Toronto has, against a team missing one of their best forwards? Absolutely no reason that game should've ended 2-1 where their only goal is from a defenceman.
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Post by Captain Obvious on Jul 27, 2022 10:42:06 GMT -4
Goaltending takes a lot more importance in the playoffs. It's much harder to outscore teams because it's a best on best and 16/32 teams are no longer around. I agree. There's also only like 3-4 goaltenders that people consider elite and its impossible to acquire them. Even if Toronto didn't have Tavares or Marner and had $11 million in cap space they wouldnt have Vasilevskiy or Shesterkin to add to their team. They'd still be choosing between guys like Fleury, Campbell, Kuemper, Murray, Talbot, etc....all of them have warts and none will ever be favored over the elite at that position. You don't necessarily need an elite goalie, but punting the position to reclamation projects is at the other extreme of the scale.
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Post by Mika on Jul 27, 2022 10:43:44 GMT -4
I agree. There's also only like 3-4 goaltenders that people consider elite and its impossible to acquire them. Even if Toronto didn't have Tavares or Marner and had $11 million in cap space they wouldnt have Vasilevskiy or Shesterkin to add to their team. They'd still be choosing between guys like Fleury, Campbell, Kuemper, Murray, Talbot, etc....all of them have warts and none will ever be favored over the elite at that position. You don't necessarily need an elite goalie, but punting the position to reclamation projects is at the other extreme of the scale. And very high risk when it's an Auston Matthews contract year and elite American players are going back to the States. It'll be fun to watch for 31 other fan bases.
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Post by Captain Obvious on Jul 27, 2022 10:44:31 GMT -4
I agree. There's also only like 3-4 goaltenders that people consider elite and its impossible to acquire them. Even if Toronto didn't have Tavares or Marner and had $11 million in cap space they wouldnt have Vasilevskiy or Shesterkin to add to their team. They'd still be choosing between guys like Fleury, Campbell, Kuemper, Murray, Talbot, etc....all of them have warts and none will ever be favored over the elite at that position. I don't think it is quite right to say there is only 3-4 goalies capable of being a solid long term starting option ... not sure what the number is, but it is higher than that ... and you have a Leafs team that has been built to contend for a multi-year period, starting a few years ago, and likely extending a few more years. Somewhere along the way the team should have addressed their goaltending - but they didn't, and now they are where they are - seemingly entering each offseason looking for a new solution, and having to pick from a bunch of unappealing options in the discount bin. IMHO their issues started by overpaying Tavares, that messed up their salary structure and then Marner Matthews and Nylander all wanted more than they should have gotten at the time. They ended up with bargain pieces on defense and in nets as a result.
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Post by Jack Bauer on Jul 27, 2022 10:59:28 GMT -4
I agree. There's also only like 3-4 goaltenders that people consider elite and its impossible to acquire them. Even if Toronto didn't have Tavares or Marner and had $11 million in cap space they wouldnt have Vasilevskiy or Shesterkin to add to their team. They'd still be choosing between guys like Fleury, Campbell, Kuemper, Murray, Talbot, etc....all of them have warts and none will ever be favored over the elite at that position. I don't think it is quite right to say there is only 3-4 goalies capable of being a solid long term starting option ... not sure what the number is, but it is higher than that ... and you have a Leafs team that has been built to contend for a multi-year period, starting a few years ago, and likely extending a few more years. Somewhere along the way the team should have addressed their goaltending - but they didn't, and now they are where they are - seemingly entering each offseason looking for a new solution, and having to pick from a bunch of unappealing options in the discount bin. I'm saying there's only a handful of elite difference maker goaltenders...the guys who get the elite salary and term. Every goalie available this off season doesnt fit that category in my opinion. Kuemper just won a Cup but is he a guy you'd sign for 5 years fully expecting 5 solid years of potential Cup winning goaltending? I don't think he is personally. Campbell hasn't even really had 1 year of injury free #1 status and also got 5 years. I agree that there should have been more of a long term plan when it came to goaltending. Thats Dubas' biggest weakness to this point for me...not only not finding a long term option but not having much coming through prospect wise. We MIGHT be turning that corner now but its such a volatile position when it comes to projects vs elite prospects that we're like 3 years from knowing what we have even in prospects. But if you look around its either draft someone high and hope they stay on that upward trajectory and you lock them up through their prime or you're left going through the leagues mostly average group of available goaltenders.
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Post by Jack Bauer on Jul 27, 2022 11:01:57 GMT -4
You don't necessarily need an elite goalie, but punting the position to reclamation projects is at the other extreme of the scale. And very high risk when it's an Auston Matthews contract year and elite American players are going back to the States. It'll be fun to watch for 31 other fan bases. 2 Americans left 1 Canadian city. Thats far from a trend. Matthews is also on ads and billboards all over the city and makes a ton of money from endorsements that wouldn't be available to him in every city.
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Post by Jack Bauer on Jul 27, 2022 11:08:25 GMT -4
I agree. There's also only like 3-4 goaltenders that people consider elite and its impossible to acquire them. Even if Toronto didn't have Tavares or Marner and had $11 million in cap space they wouldnt have Vasilevskiy or Shesterkin to add to their team. They'd still be choosing between guys like Fleury, Campbell, Kuemper, Murray, Talbot, etc....all of them have warts and none will ever be favored over the elite at that position. You don't necessarily need an elite goalie, but punting the position to reclamation projects is at the other extreme of the scale. Going with reclamation projects after getting mostly below average goaltending last season is punting the position a bit but the options were term on older guys or reclamation guys still in their prime ages. There were nothing but grenades lining the goaltending market and Dubas went with 2 guys who don't command term or huge money. If Mrazek goes 6-12 as a starter maybe they decide to give a Campbell the 5 years. But seeing a terrible goalie still win 2/3 of his starts and seeing Kuemper play average and still win a Cup means in a cap world where everyone has certain holes they can't fill they view goaltending as just needing to be average most nights to win and its hard to argue that when your team is built to win games 5-3. There's also a currently unknown trade market going to unfold later in the season where maybe you get that playoff #1 goalie for a draft pick after these guys get you to your playoff position. If you put all your eggs in on Kuemper or Campbell in terms of the term you're running with them for the next 3 years and praying they not only play well but stay healthy. This offers more flexibility and more risk. But after watching Mrazek and Kallgren play for stretches does it mean a 115 point team is a 105 point team or a 90 point team? Those are big differences but 1 is still easily a playoff team.
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Post by Jack Bauer on Jul 27, 2022 11:13:42 GMT -4
You don't need a Vasilevskiy to win the Cup though. Not that having him hurts your chances, but in the last 5 years Tampa is still 2/5 with Stanley Cups with him in net. It was hardly elite goalies beating him either. Holtby, Bobrovsky, and Kuemper. You just need a decent goalie who can get the job done and the Leafs have the pieces to move to get that goalie. There's really no need to be scraping the bottom of the discount barrel for a goalie. What's killed Toronto is outside of Reilly, their defence is just OK. Guys like Andersen and Campbell have done a good job, but the defence has let them down. 4-3 OT in game 6 on the road, and 2-1 in game 7. Hard to really blame that on goaltending. They remind me a lot of the Caps from the 2010s. Solid team, but key pieces just vanish when it matters the most. Game 7 at home with the firepower Toronto has, against a team missing one of their best forwards? Absolutely no reason that game should've ended 2-1 where their only goal is from a defenceman. Who is on your list of attainable goalies a simple trade away from acquiring? I'm looking around and not seeing any who solve the real issue of not having a solid reliable #1 goaltender.
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Post by Mika on Jul 27, 2022 11:34:09 GMT -4
You don't need a Vasilevskiy to win the Cup though. Not that having him hurts your chances, but in the last 5 years Tampa is still 2/5 with Stanley Cups with him in net. It was hardly elite goalies beating him either. Holtby, Bobrovsky, and Kuemper. You just need a decent goalie who can get the job done and the Leafs have the pieces to move to get that goalie. There's really no need to be scraping the bottom of the discount barrel for a goalie. What's killed Toronto is outside of Reilly, their defence is just OK. Guys like Andersen and Campbell have done a good job, but the defence has let them down. 4-3 OT in game 6 on the road, and 2-1 in game 7. Hard to really blame that on goaltending. They remind me a lot of the Caps from the 2010s. Solid team, but key pieces just vanish when it matters the most. Game 7 at home with the firepower Toronto has, against a team missing one of their best forwards? Absolutely no reason that game should've ended 2-1 where their only goal is from a defenceman. Who is on your list of attainable goalies a simple trade away from acquiring? I'm looking around and not seeing any who solve the real issue of not having a solid reliable #1 goaltender. Quick on a good team is an option, Lehner would be a good and still cheap option, One of Sorokin or Varlamov could probably be pried from the Isles, Same deal with Detroit having Husso and Nedeljkovic, there's tons of talent in the various Euro leagues. They could always inquire about getting a guy like Andersen or Reimer back. If they want to win the Cup, they have to give up a piece that in an ideal situation they'd want to keep. Winning a Cup isn't cheap.
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Post by Jack Bauer on Jul 27, 2022 12:14:49 GMT -4
Who is on your list of attainable goalies a simple trade away from acquiring? I'm looking around and not seeing any who solve the real issue of not having a solid reliable #1 goaltender. Quick on a good team is an option, Lehner would be a good and still cheap option, One of Sorokin or Varlamov could probably be pried from the Isles, Same deal with Detroit having Husso and Nedeljkovic, there's tons of talent in the various Euro leagues. They could always inquire about getting a guy like Andersen or Reimer back. If they want to win the Cup, they have to give up a piece that in an ideal situation they'd want to keep. Winning a Cup isn't cheap. I'm seeing a pile of guys who still have huge questions about being a legit long term fix. And some I can probably get cheaper in March if i'm really needing someone. Andersen or Reimer back within a duo may have been an option but do either fix the problem? I think we're still having the same conversation if its an Andersen or Reimer/Samsonov duo and I would have had to give up something to to bring back the guys I already decided weren't my answer. Kallgran came from the Euro leagues. We drafted an overager in Hildeby mostly based on his play in the SHL. So I think those are among the best options we would have found in undrafted and available goaltending from European leagues. Detroit just acquired Husso because they weren't impressed at all with Nedeljkovic. Is Varlamov an answer at 34? Whats the price on him? Another question mark I have to acquire that I dont think puts me in any better spot. Lehner for 2 more years and I have to pay a huge premium to get Vegas to move their only real shot at a #1 goaltender for this upcoming season. And am I confident he can play in Toronto and not get crushed under the media spotlight while I know how his issues effected him in other markets? And why is Vegas they doing this for anything but a laughable overpay of prospects and/or picks an offer? Quick is another not going cheap and are you getting someone you know can carry you at 37? All these short term $5 million guys like Quick, Lehner, Varlamov dont solve any issues or every team needing goaltending would have taken their short term deals vs signing guys who are just as questionable when you try and see 2-3-4-5 years down the road. The cost to adding one of these guys could literally be a 3rd rounder. So by giving Matt Murray a shot....we can acquire a replacement at the deadline and the real cost be Matt Murray not living up to the role but otherwise I can enter the playoffs with a short term veteran and asset wise be down nothing. That point is worth considering when you get into these guys with miles on them and what you'd have to pay to add them right now.
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Post by Mika on Jul 27, 2022 12:35:21 GMT -4
None of those guys are "just as questionable" though. Every goalie has good points and bad points.
The answer to the goaltending problem in Toronto though definitely isn't Murray or Samsonov. I would've liked their chances at winning a series this coming season with Campbell and a called up minor league goalie, or even Samsonov if the cap space was there.
Samsonov had the starting job in Washington, a team with arguably better defence than Toronto, and he kept losing it to a less talented goalie. Maybe he'll thrive as a backup, but even in Washington as a backup, he was never that good.
I just don't see any optimism with Murray as the starter. Pittsburgh had instant regret choosing him over Fleury, they just lucked in and Jarry turned into a fairly solid goalie.
They aren't getting a Vasilevskiy, it doesn't matter what Toronto offers as a return. So you go for the next best thing. This year that was Kuemper or Campbell. Both solid goalies who could've taken Toronto over that hump when they needed it most. Toronto just seems to have hit the panic button and taken anyone willing to go there.
And yes, if the Groundhog Day trend continues and Toronto misses the playoffs or goes out round 1 again, Matthews probably walks. He can dictate his salary and where he goes and there will be a long lineup of teams more than happy to take him away.
I just don't get why anyone would be content with Murray as the starter. Even if you were in rebuild mode, you shouldn't be content with him.
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Post by Jack Bauer on Jul 27, 2022 12:54:29 GMT -4
None of those guys are "just as questionable" though. Every goalie has good points and bad points. The answer to the goaltending problem in Toronto though definitely isn't Murray or Samsonov. I would've liked their chances at winning a series this coming season with Campbell and a called up minor league goalie, or even Samsonov if the cap space was there. Samsonov had the starting job in Washington, a team with arguably better defence than Toronto, and he kept losing it to a less talented goalie. Maybe he'll thrive as a backup, but even in Washington as a backup, he was never that good. I just don't see any optimism with Murray as the starter. Pittsburgh had instant regret choosing him over Fleury, they just lucked in and Jarry turned into a fairly solid goalie. They aren't getting a Vasilevskiy, it doesn't matter what Toronto offers as a return. So you go for the next best thing. This year that was Kuemper or Campbell. Both solid goalies who could've taken Toronto over that hump when they needed it most. Toronto just seems to have hit the panic button and taken anyone willing to go there. And yes, if the Groundhog Day trend continues and Toronto misses the playoffs or goes out round 1 again, Matthews probably walks. He can dictate his salary and where he goes and there will be a long lineup of teams more than happy to take him away. I just don't get why anyone would be content with Murray as the starter. Even if you were in rebuild mode, you shouldn't be content with him. They're all questionable in that none of them are an answer as any of us see it. If Toronto had Quick and Samsonov or Lehner and Samsonov nobody is changing their view of how they see Toronto's goaltending as a question mark. The only optimism anyone has in Murray is that if he can stay healthy he should be an average goaltender. Same with Samsonov. If they're anything more? Great. If not? Kallgren showed he can also ve average and we have a 3rd rounder to go shopping for a goaltender with. Who is saying they are happy Murray is the starter? I'm saying I see how when faced with mostly question marks I see the logic in taking the cheapest one cost wise. I havent seen anyone say they're happy with it or that Murray is any solution. But I don't think he's all that worse then the Nedeljkovic, guys from Europe, Lehner, Quick at 37, or Varlamov all could be when you view their situations and then go try and trade for some of them. Seeing justification in a move isnt supporting it or being happy with it. In a cap world you'll drive yourself nuts thinking your team can fill every hole with the best available player. And some times the best available players dont fill the hole. I honestly think everyone looks back on this goaltending market and believes nobody found a real solution. But only 1 team took the approach of taking on a player while also getting an asset to do so...in a cap system would it be so crazy if that ends up not looking completely terrible?
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Post by jimmy on Jul 27, 2022 13:21:19 GMT -4
None of those guys are "just as questionable" though. Every goalie has good points and bad points. The answer to the goaltending problem in Toronto though definitely isn't Murray or Samsonov. I would've liked their chances at winning a series this coming season with Campbell and a called up minor league goalie, or even Samsonov if the cap space was there. Samsonov had the starting job in Washington, a team with arguably better defence than Toronto, and he kept losing it to a less talented goalie. Maybe he'll thrive as a backup, but even in Washington as a backup, he was never that good. I just don't see any optimism with Murray as the starter. Pittsburgh had instant regret choosing him over Fleury, they just lucked in and Jarry turned into a fairly solid goalie. They aren't getting a Vasilevskiy, it doesn't matter what Toronto offers as a return. So you go for the next best thing. This year that was Kuemper or Campbell. Both solid goalies who could've taken Toronto over that hump when they needed it most. Toronto just seems to have hit the panic button and taken anyone willing to go there. And yes, if the Groundhog Day trend continues and Toronto misses the playoffs or goes out round 1 again, Matthews probably walks. He can dictate his salary and where he goes and there will be a long lineup of teams more than happy to take him away. I just don't get why anyone would be content with Murray as the starter. Even if you were in rebuild mode, you shouldn't be content with him. They're all questionable in that none of them are an answer as any of us see it. If Toronto had Quick and Samsonov or Lehner and Samsonov nobody is changing their view of how they see Toronto's goaltending as a question mark. The only optimism anyone has in Murray is that if he can stay healthy he should be an average goaltender. Same with Samsonov. If they're anything more? Great. If not? Kallgren showed he can also ve average and we have a 3rd rounder to go shopping for a goaltender with. Who is saying they are happy Murray is the starter? I'm saying I see how when faced with mostly question marks I see the logic in taking the cheapest one cost wise. I havent seen anyone say they're happy with it or that Murray is any solution. But I don't think he's all that worse then the Nedeljkovic, guys from Europe, Lehner, Quick at 37, or Varlamov all could be when you view their situations and then go try and trade for some of them. Seeing justification in a move isnt supporting it or being happy with it. In a cap world you'll drive yourself nuts thinking your team can fill every hole with the best available player. And some times the best available players dont fill the hole. I honestly think everyone looks back on this goaltending market and believes nobody found a real solution. But only 1 team took the approach of taking on a player while also getting an asset to do so...in a cap system would it be so crazy if that ends up not looking completely terrible? From a this July perspective, you are right ... any move he would have made would have had just as many question marks/risk involved ... but Dubas has been GM since 2018. Sometime in the past four years, he could have done something to make sure that his team, built to contend, did not end up halfway through its championship window with zero playoff series win and no idea who was going to be in net in 2022/23 and beyond. The fact that they are forced to choose among a bunch of bad options is 100% on him. Good goalies have signed, been traded, or been drafted since he was GM of the Leafs.
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Post by Jack Bauer on Jul 27, 2022 13:25:11 GMT -4
They're all questionable in that none of them are an answer as any of us see it. If Toronto had Quick and Samsonov or Lehner and Samsonov nobody is changing their view of how they see Toronto's goaltending as a question mark. The only optimism anyone has in Murray is that if he can stay healthy he should be an average goaltender. Same with Samsonov. If they're anything more? Great. If not? Kallgren showed he can also ve average and we have a 3rd rounder to go shopping for a goaltender with. Who is saying they are happy Murray is the starter? I'm saying I see how when faced with mostly question marks I see the logic in taking the cheapest one cost wise. I havent seen anyone say they're happy with it or that Murray is any solution. But I don't think he's all that worse then the Nedeljkovic, guys from Europe, Lehner, Quick at 37, or Varlamov all could be when you view their situations and then go try and trade for some of them. Seeing justification in a move isnt supporting it or being happy with it. In a cap world you'll drive yourself nuts thinking your team can fill every hole with the best available player. And some times the best available players dont fill the hole. I honestly think everyone looks back on this goaltending market and believes nobody found a real solution. But only 1 team took the approach of taking on a player while also getting an asset to do so...in a cap system would it be so crazy if that ends up not looking completely terrible? From a this July perspective, you are right ... any move he would have made would have had just as many question marks/risk involved ... but Dubas has been GM since 2018. Sometime in the past four years, he could have done something to make sure that his team, built to contend, did not end up halfway through its championship window with zero playoff series win and no idea who was going to be in net in 2022/23 and beyond. The fact that they are forced to choose among a bunch of bad options is 100% on him. Good goalies have signed, been traded, or been drafted since he was GM of the Leafs. I'm with you 100%. Thats why I think Dubas job rests on Matt Murray's performance now. And its fair to put that all on the player considering the circumstances. Dubas' strategy revolves around high end skill, low paid depth, and average goaltending. That was his plan for building. If the low paid depth and average goaltending get beat again by better depth or better goaltending...i'd argue even Shanahan's job should start to be in question but at minimum Dubas should be done.
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Post by MikeC on Jul 27, 2022 13:54:50 GMT -4
From a this July perspective, you are right ... any move he would have made would have had just as many question marks/risk involved ... but Dubas has been GM since 2018. Sometime in the past four years, he could have done something to make sure that his team, built to contend, did not end up halfway through its championship window with zero playoff series win and no idea who was going to be in net in 2022/23 and beyond. The fact that they are forced to choose among a bunch of bad options is 100% on him. Good goalies have signed, been traded, or been drafted since he was GM of the Leafs. I'm with you 100%. Thats why I think Dubas job rests on Matt Murray's performance now. And its fair to put that all on the player considering the circumstances. Dubas' strategy revolves around high end skill, low paid depth, and average goaltending. That was his plan for building. If the low paid depth and average goaltending get beat again by better depth or better goaltending...i'd argue even Shanahan's job should start to be in question but at minimum Dubas should be done. If the Leafs are trading for Varlamov in March, it will likely be because the wheels have fallen off in both cities, and if that's the case, it probably won't be Dubas or Lamoriello making the trade.
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