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Post by Reesor on Sept 7, 2023 16:25:21 GMT -4
Still a ways out right now. But quite a few long-range forecast models have this system affecting the Maritimes.
I'm in a internal struggle with these types of events because I find weather to be fascinating. I don't want anyone's property damaged or for anyone, including first responders to be in harms way. But I do find myself watching the podcats and looking at the charts for hurricanes. In a different life I would've been a meteorologist.
My basement flooded during those heavy rains in July. I work with multiple people that lost their homes in the forest fires. We don't need a threat of a hurricane any time let alone now. The last thing I want to do is fear-monger because I know these events can cause a lot of anxiety and depression for some folks. It is good to be prepared though.
For those interested, I follow Mike's Weather Page (https://www.spaghettimodels.com/) for information on storms that have the potential of impacting us.
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Post by moosefan1994 on Sept 7, 2023 17:36:11 GMT -4
We were already lucky that Franklin turned east when it did because it would have affected all of Nova Scotia had it kept going north and been worse than Fiona was.
We were already affected by Don- its outer bands got sucked into that system that caused the flooding in Bedford and all the lightning that day and night.
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Post by moosefan1994 on Sept 8, 2023 7:56:11 GMT -4
Lee is a 5 as of this morning- and most models have Nova Scotia in its tracks but it depends on where it starts to make its northward turn.
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Post by Jack Bauer on Sept 8, 2023 10:34:52 GMT -4
The fear mongering came out a bit with Franklin.
But this one appears to be a more realistic forecast in terms of at least keeping a close eye on it and being aware of whats coming.
I still get frustration of the media's cycle with this stuff, though. They tell us to be overly prepared for storms during newscasts where they're also talking about endless financial issues in the country and there's a known housing crisis being completely ignored by all levels of government.
So while we're supposed to deal with it all and prepare for these storms...I see zero sign of NS Power, Bell Aliant, Eastlink, etc who provide our critical services doing any preparation themselves.
Part of the problem with Fiona's response, that we have with hindsight now, is fuel shortages happened quickly. What are those providers doing to prepare any differently?
I'll play my part in making sure I can survive for a week without power but it sure would be nice to see government and essential services making the same commitment. In areas with tent filled parks and food banks hitting peaks they never seen before the response has to be designed to help people and direct them to where they can find assistance during and after these storms.
All I've seen from NS the last few years are 2 different governments taking the same useless stance as a messenger and not doing near enough to be proactive as these things get worse. The helicopter ride with the premier after the disaster in the hardest hit areas just being a part of the theatrics of it all.
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Post by Reesor on Sept 8, 2023 11:12:12 GMT -4
The fear mongering came out a bit with Franklin. But this one appears to be a more realistic forecast in terms of at least keeping a close eye on it and being aware of whats coming. I still get frustration of the media's cycle with this stuff, though. They tell us to be overly prepared for storms during newscasts where they're also talking about endless financial issues in the country and there's a known housing crisis being completely ignored by all levels of government. So while we're supposed to deal with it all and prepare for these storms...I see zero sign of NS Power, Bell Aliant, Eastlink, etc who provide our critical services doing any preparation themselves. Part of the problem with Fiona's response, that we have with hindsight now, is fuel shortages happened quickly. What are those providers doing to prepare any differently? I'll play my part in making sure I can survive for a week without power but it sure would be nice to see government and essential services making the same commitment. In areas with tent filled parks and food banks hitting peaks they never seen before the response has to be designed to help people and direct them to where they can find assistance during and after these storms. All I've seen from NS the last few years are 2 different governments taking the same useless stance as a messenger and not doing near enough to be proactive as these things get worse. The helicopter ride with the premier after the disaster in the hardest hit areas just being a part of the theatrics of it all. As with many subjects latest including politics, the sides are polarized. If you charge your power banks and test your generator a week out it's perceived to be hugely over-reacting. Then if you wait until next Wednesday you'll be spending an hour or more in line at Costco to fill your propane tank. Preparing now isn't sensationalist, it's smart. If it doesn't happen, great! It's like people are so afraid of being wrong it takes them away from the most logical course of action. I would hope (maybe I'm naive), that the cities and towns are talking about this already and are ready to open up schools etc for people experiencing homelessness in the event of a big storm. That HFXAlert App and the folks that control what is sent on it is laughable. Hopefully that gets improved while we're in peak hurricane season. I agree that there's a lot asked of residents and it seems levels of government don't show the same levels of pro-activeness. Their reactive ability is usually very good.
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Post by Jack Bauer on Sept 8, 2023 11:41:03 GMT -4
The fear mongering came out a bit with Franklin. But this one appears to be a more realistic forecast in terms of at least keeping a close eye on it and being aware of whats coming. I still get frustration of the media's cycle with this stuff, though. They tell us to be overly prepared for storms during newscasts where they're also talking about endless financial issues in the country and there's a known housing crisis being completely ignored by all levels of government. So while we're supposed to deal with it all and prepare for these storms...I see zero sign of NS Power, Bell Aliant, Eastlink, etc who provide our critical services doing any preparation themselves. Part of the problem with Fiona's response, that we have with hindsight now, is fuel shortages happened quickly. What are those providers doing to prepare any differently? I'll play my part in making sure I can survive for a week without power but it sure would be nice to see government and essential services making the same commitment. In areas with tent filled parks and food banks hitting peaks they never seen before the response has to be designed to help people and direct them to where they can find assistance during and after these storms. All I've seen from NS the last few years are 2 different governments taking the same useless stance as a messenger and not doing near enough to be proactive as these things get worse. The helicopter ride with the premier after the disaster in the hardest hit areas just being a part of the theatrics of it all. As with many subjects latest including politics, the sides are polarized. If you charge your power banks and test your generator a week out it's perceived to be hugely over-reacting. Then if you wait until next Wednesday you'll be spending an hour or more in line at Costco to fill your propane tank. Preparing now isn't sensationalist, it's smart. If it doesn't happen, great! It's like people are so afraid of being wrong it takes them away from the most logical course of action. I would hope (maybe I'm naive), that the cities and towns are talking about this already and are ready to open up schools etc for people experiencing homelessness in the event of a big storm. That HFXAlert App and the folks that control what is sent on it is laughable. Hopefully that gets improved while we're in peak hurricane season. I agree that there's a lot asked of residents and it seems levels of government don't show the same levels of pro-activeness. Their reactive ability is usually very good. I'm thinking more of those on fixed incomes who can't even afford proper meals and then the media is saying watch out for this storm that models say likely wont impact us...but MAY...and be ready for it. They're already picking which bill to pay...food, energy, or oil...they can't afford to buy extra groceries during hurricane season every time a storm starts turning up the coast. 1 sensationalist social media "weather reporter" would have made people think Franklin was going to be a direct hit for us. Literally forced everyone else to have to refute it and explain why. The experts were almost bang on. But again the false/misleading info is out there and we have an entire generation not raised on the internet who doesn't know what to believe or not. I feel for them in a lot of ways. You're bang on that the reactive ability is generally good. Imaging how low of a bar they've set though that opening up local fire stations as warming centers is considered good. The people responsible for properly spending that 20%+ of our paychecks should be delivering way more then reactive support though. I already know that if a big storm comes one of the big things our utilities will do is get everyone on a conference call. They think having 10 guys making over $300K each together for a few hours is doing their due dilligence. Its about time we change that response to being proactive as well as reactive. Especially knowing what we do about flooding around the province in certain areas. Its like we're shocked every time people in a flood zone are forced out of their homes now.
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Post by hal on Sept 8, 2023 17:35:22 GMT -4
I know and I am guessing we all know people that haven't even got everything back in tact from Fiona . I have a Neighbour that just had their Roof finally replaced about 6 weeks ago . Hopefully Lee goes out to Sea and misses us ........it has been a Crappy Enough Summer already .
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Post by Reesor on Sept 11, 2023 7:39:34 GMT -4
Track models for Lee have shifted considerably west and it now poses more of a threat to the North-Eastern US. Saint John and Moncton may also want to keep a close eye on this one as some tracks put the storm up the Bay of Fundy, although it 99.99% won't have hurricane-force sustained winds by then. Looking like an extremely strong nor-easter by the time it reaches the Maritimes.
Nigel is starting to form off the coast of Africa, and there are models showing a potential almost identical scenario to Lee happening in two weeks time.
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Post by Reesor on Sept 14, 2023 7:22:10 GMT -4
Strong wind and rain event for Halifax but aside from a few sporadic trees and branches down it shouldn't be a huge issue. Biggest concern is storm surge along the coast as this is a huge storm pushing a lot of water. The Nova Scotia south shore is a bit more vulnerable as it hasn't taken the brunt of a weak hurricane / strong tropical storm in quite some time, and there may be more tree damage because of it.
A straight line in New Brunswick from Saint Stephen to Bathurst is in for a lot of rain (~100mm), and South-Western New Brunswick may get some hurricane-force gusts. I think the biggest concern will be storm surge in the Bay of Fundy. Tides are high because of the new moon. I think we're pretty lucky this storm isn't like Fiona, because it could push a lot of water near the Tatramar Marsh.
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Post by hal on Sept 17, 2023 5:56:38 GMT -4
Hope everyone made out OK during this latest Weather Event . Thankfully Lee paled in comparison to Fiona or Dorian . It looks like from Yarmouth up to Digby were the hardest hit areas in Nova Scotia . Maybe some of our NB and PEI Posters can let us know how they made out .
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Post by atlhockey on Sept 17, 2023 7:47:17 GMT -4
Eastern PEI got light rain and moderate winds. No power outages where we are except for a few flickers.
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Post by bois on Sept 17, 2023 9:27:18 GMT -4
Yeah pretty standard fall storm in charlottetown lotsa rain and some strong winds…. Thankful it was mild this time
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