Drummondville @ Halifax - Thur. Dec. 7

[statsman18]

Dec 6, 2023 12:51:45 GMT -4 QMJHL Fan said:

Sylvain Favreau making his return to Halifax seems to be the first thing to come to mind for this game.

Favreau pushed all the right buttons behind the Moose bench last year with what he had to work with, and he appears to be doing the same this season behind the Voltigeurs bench.

The Volts currently sit 1st overall in the Western Conference - 2 points up on Rouyn and 3 up on Victoriaville, but both have 2 games in hand. They have a 7-3-0-0 record over their past 10 games.

Of note (while glancing at the standings), Rouyn (6-4-0-0) is in the same boat as the Mooseheads (5-3-2-0) recently - both in a bit of a mini-slump with 12 of a possible 20 points over their past 10 games.

The Volts are heavy on big names - Riley Mercer in goal; Komarov, Lamoureux and Rotondi on defence; and Woodworth, Ethan Gauthier and Huchette up front. They will be a handful for the Moose.

The talk of Tyler Peddle possibly being moved has pretty well died out, but from my own perspective, a trade to Halifax makes sense - mainly because the process of elimination has ruled out the majority of other teams (IMO). He's a 2005, but not a lot of other teams are likely willing to take a gamble. He's slipped to 14th in team scoring with no less than four defencemen putting up more points, and a player of his skill set needs to play top six minutes - not 3rd line. It wouldn't shock me to see him staying in Halifax - if not after this game - then after the Volts trip to the Maritimes.

Great to see the Moose with four players headed to the WJC tryouts at the end of the week. Markus Vidicek most certainly deserves the invite. If you need a goal in the last minute or in a shootout - he's the guy you want out there. He also brings out the best in Dumais. Those two can play with anybody.

Goaltending has been a weak link (IMO) with Team Canada in recent seasons - and Rousseau has been steadier than Steady Eddie Giacomin over the past calendar year. He tracks everything and has outstanding rebound control. I'm going to guess he EARNS the Number 1 role. As one of the broadcasters (I think it was George Matthews) mentioned in a recent game - if they had a vote for league MVP so far - he might get the most votes. The Moose were Number 1 in the CHL for four straight weeks - and he was the biggest reason (again IMO).

Huge game - but these are not must win games. What's more important for the Moose is building their final roster. The trade window opens in 11 days. Other teams have been tinkering - and it's time to make some decisions. Most of us figured they would wait and see how it looked at the Christmas break to decide where to go. I don't think it was ever  question of whether to buy or sell - it's always been to buy - but more of a decision on how deep you're ready to invest.

IMO (and I have no inside info) - but this could be Cam Russell's last hurrah as GM before being kicked upstairs to a mushroom job (if he wants one). You have the league's best goalie (IMO) - easily one of the top groups of D-men in the league (Owen Phillips has been through the roof outstanding - plus 3 in the 3 game Quebec trip and +4 over the past 6) - and the league's best line. You are probably NEVER going to have more to work with in another season.

Looking forward to the game. The Moose have had time to work on things in practice and sleep in their own beds. I expect them to be at their best - with every shift being treated as a playoff game.

Prediction: 5-2 Moose.

Drummondville isn’t going to give a potential boost to another contending team. Especially after making the big boy move they made earlier in the week. A team that I haven’t noticed if someone brought up in a Peddle move is Moncton. He makes a lot of sense there. Next years their year and he’s at least here for a year and half. That to me is a team to watch if Peddle is moved.

As for everything else I most agree besides maybe the score. You need to remember who coaching Drummondville now. I’m pretty sure he knows everyone weaknesses on this team and might try to exploit them heavily.

[bois]

I said Peddle to Moncton makes sense awhile ago

Moncton posters shot it down and they know their team and it's needs alot more than I do

[statsman18]

Dec 6, 2023 14:37:37 GMT -4 bois said:

I said Peddle to Moncton makes sense awhile ago

Moncton posters shot it down and they know their team and it's needs alot more than I do

Do they though?

[L'il Boy]

Dec 6, 2023 14:52:13 GMT -4 statsman18 said:

Dec 6, 2023 14:37:37 GMT -4 bois said:

I said Peddle to Moncton makes sense awhile ago

Moncton posters shot it down and they know their team and it's needs alot more than I do

Do they though?

YADA

[statsman18]

Dec 6, 2023 16:22:21 GMT -4 L'il Boy said:

Dec 6, 2023 14:52:13 GMT -4 statsman18 said:

Do they though?

YADA

Agree to disagree.

[Citris]

It's just my opinion, and nobody appointed me queen of the forums - but I also don't see a fit for Peddle to Moncton or Halifax.

He'd be in a similar situation in Moncton than he is in Drummondville, if not worse. Moncton has a ton of talent, young talent up front, he'd still have to fight for ice time and PP time etc. If you're gonna be a 3rd /4th liner you'd probably prefer to do it on the better team (and I do think, overall Drummondville is the better team this year.)

And Halifax, from the Volts perspective makes ZERO sense. I've expressed my thoughts on this before but it's a lose-lose situation for everyone.

He already told Cape Breton he didn't want to play there, I'm not sure if that's changed. On-ice he would be a fit tho.

That basically leaves Charlottetown, Saint John and Bathurst... all 3 of which I could see being a fit under the right circumstances.

Peddle as a return in a Reynolds deal (unlikely as it may be) makes some sense...

Bathurst has 20's that would be a huge upgrade on Drew Elliot, and Gordie Dwyer has already shown he's willing to take on reclamation projects, he's even had success with a couple. (Orr and Huggan. Arsenault was in a somewhat similar situation too.)

Charlottetown would be similar to Saint John, they have a 20 to offer and a roster spot they could basically guarantee.

[hfxfan09]

5-3 Halifax to right the ship! (With 4 departing after Friday's game it's time now for the younger players to step up)

[lirette]

Dec 6, 2023 19:01:25 GMT -4 Citris said:

It's just my opinion, and nobody appointed me queen of the forums - but I also don't see a fit for Peddle to Moncton or Halifax.

He'd be in a similar situation in Moncton than he is in Drummondville, if not worse. Moncton has a ton of talent, young talent up front, he'd still have to fight for ice time and PP time etc. If you're gonna be a 3rd /4th liner you'd probably prefer to do it on the better team (and I do think, overall Drummondville is the better team this year.)

And Halifax, from the Volts perspective makes ZERO sense. I've expressed my thoughts on this before but it's a lose-lose situation for everyone.

He already told Cape Breton he didn't want to play there, I'm not sure if that's changed. On-ice he would be a fit tho.

That basically leaves Charlottetown, Saint John and Bathurst... all 3 of which I could see being a fit under the right circumstances.

Peddle as a return in a Reynolds deal (unlikely as it may be) makes some sense...

Bathurst has 20's that would be a huge upgrade on Drew Elliot, and Gordie Dwyer has already shown he's willing to take on reclamation projects, he's even had success with a couple. (Orr and Huggan. Arsenault was in a somewhat similar situation too.)

Charlottetown would be similar to Saint John, they have a 20 to offer and a roster spot they could basically guarantee.

Yeah, Moncton currently has Carrier on the 4th line who was a 6th overall pick and really should be playing more. If you added Peddle onto the team right now there's no one I'd bump off the top 6 for him. The first line has been together for about 3 weeks and just came off a 9 point night against Chicoutimi. Great chemistry developing there.

The 2nd line with Mueller/Collard/Lounsbury has no chance of being broken up, honestly one of the most cohesive and balanced lines in recent Wildcats history. If you put Peddle on the 3rd line you are bumping down Gabe Smith who also needs playing time. I suppose you could include Auger as part of the deal but he's red hot right now so you'd basically be downgrading the team but getting abit younger. I think once the Wildcats added Collard any chance of adding Peddle went out the door. We just don't really have room for underperforming forwards right now.

[Joe Burrow]

6-3 Dru

[Marshall]

Peitche also needs playing time , had a hot start then got bumped to 4th , has more points and goals still then anyone on 3rd 4th and kilfoil , also Martin is getting a bit shafted on the back end , hard to think about what the coaches may be thinking kinda the same situation as Moncton .

[bd]

If I didn't have my own team's game to attend, I would be watching this!

Drummondville looking to make some strides and Halifax being one of the top teams will make for a great game.

[sc74]

All this talk about Peddle but he was used in a top 6 role last night with Woodworth and Côté.

[hfxfan2002]

I want to see more Dom MacKenzie in the coming weeks, kid gets an assist everytime he gets playing time.

Peitzsche finally turns 17 tomorrow, love his growth so far, I agree needs more ice. He just needs to work on the drop passes and turnovers.

It’s time to see an Ethan Larmand goal tonight, get the monkey off his back.

I’m going 4-3 DRU Overtime.

We’re still running the same lines pretty much.

Cataford | Vidicek | Dumais
Kilfoil | Larmand | Fournier
Ponzetto | Todd | MacPhee
Peitzsche | Moser

[Herd Fan]

Dec 7, 2023 15:07:32 GMT -4 hfxfan2002 said:

I want to see more Dom MacKenzie in the coming weeks, kid gets an assist everytime he gets playing time.

Peitzsche finally turns 17 tomorrow, love his growth so far, I agree needs more ice. He just needs to work on the drop passes and turnovers.

It’s time to see an Ethan Larmand goal tonight, get the monkey off his back.

I’m going 4-3 DRU Overtime.

We’re still running the same lines pretty much.

Cataford | Vidicek | Dumais
Kilfoil | Larmand | Fournier
Ponzetto | Todd | MacPhee
Peitzsche | Moser

Careful what you wish for.  Mackenzie has got assists in a few games, but you have to look at the whole picture. When he plays, he is usually with Furlong most of the time, and Furlong is usually with Dumais line majority of the time. It creates plenty of opportunities for anyone on the ice with that line and Furlong. Defensively, he scares me a bit but I think with more coaching, more ice time that can be fixed. 

On another note, sucks to see Rousseau out. Wonder if there is a flu bug going around or if he is hurt. But that lessens our chances big time tonight against Sylvain Favereau. Hoping to make it to game by 2nd period as I am working late. 

Go moose go!!!

[fabi1309]

I have been working on something like MoneyPuck for the QMJHL for a while as kind of a fun side-project. I just always liked MoneyPuck and I think it’s interesting to compare statistical predictions (based on assumptions and math) with what the general public thinks. Plus, I am a big data/stats/math guy that loves hockey so there is that as well.

Anyways, here are some stats for tonights game:

Game Outcomes:
(these update live while the game is played based on a bunch of factors)

Current Win Probability For Halifax: 53%
Current Win Probability For Drummondville: 32%
Current Overtime Probability: 15%

Goalies:
(had ChatGPT give me a hand here a little)

Jack Milner gets the nod between the pipes in light of Rousseau's injury. Across 8 games played, Milner has a Goals Against (GA) of 25, leading to an average Goals Against Average (GAA) of 3.13. His Expected Goals Against (xGA) is 22.23, resulting in a Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) of -2.77. Having spent a total of 478 minutes on the ice, Milner faced 30 high-danger shots, allowing 12 high-danger goals against (xHDGA), while the expected High-Danger Goals Against (HDGAx) were 7.49. This leads to a High Danger Goals Saved Above Expected (HDGSAx) of -4.51. In the medium-danger category, he faced 50 shots, allowing 8 goals against with an expected goals against (xMDGA) of 8.25, resulting in a Medium Danger Goals Saved Above Expected (MDGSAx) of 0.25. As for low-danger shots, Milner faced 147, allowing 7 goals against, while the expected goals against (xLDGA) were 6.49, leading to a Low Danger Goals Saved Above Expected (LDGSAx) of -0.51.

For Drummondville, we can expect Riley Mercer (confirmed since I started writing) who has demonstrated his skills in 22 games played. With a total of 59 Goals Against (GA), Mercer maintains a Goals Against Average (GAA) of 2.68, outperforming the Expected Goals Against (xGA) of 64.35 and achieving a Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) of 5.35. Mercer has been a key presence on the ice for a substantial 1285.85 minutes. Facing 70 high-danger shots, he allowed 15 goals against with an Expected Goals Against (xHDGA) of 19.88, resulting in a High Danger Goals Saved Above Expected (HDGSAx) of 4.88. In the medium-danger category, Mercer faced 156 shots, allowing 23 goals against with an Expected Goals Against (xMDGA) of 24.4, securing a Medium Danger Goals Saved Above Expected (MDGSAx) of 1.4. For low-danger shots, Mercer faced 415, allowing 22 goals against, with an Expected Goals Against (xLDGA) of 20.07, leading to a Low Danger Goals Saved Above Expected (LDGSAx) of -1.93.

Summary: Milner seems to be consistent at low/medium danger chances but struggles to keep out the important high danger shots and is definitely missing some experience and game time compared to Mercer. On the other end we can except Mercer to scrape some high danger shots from the line. Brining pucks on goal and expecting a bad save on a weak shot seems to be key for success.

Stats for Players Of Interest:
(I don't think a write up as for the goalies would be of benefit for anyone - so here is just the top 3 players for each team)

Halifax:

First Name	Last Name	Jersey Number	Position	Team	Games Played	Goals	Expected Goals	Goals Above Expected	Shots	Goal Percent	Power Play Goals	Short Handed Goals	First Assists	Second Assists	Plus	Minus	Plus / Minus	Goals Against On Ice	Goals On Ice	Penalty Minutes	Faceoff Wins	Faceoff Attempts	Faceoff Percent	Times Assistant	Times Captain	Low Danger Expected Goals	Low Danger Shots	Low Danger Goals	Medium Danger Expected Goals	Medium Danger Shots	Medium Danger Goals	High Danger Expected Goals	High Danger Shots	High Danger Goals
Mathieu	Cataford	10	C	Halifax, Mooseheads	27	14	10.65	3.35	80	17.5	3	1	13	11	49	21	28	22	63	6	146	269	54.28	18	0	2.09	36	4	4.62	29	7	3.94	15	3
Jordan	Dumais	11	RW	Halifax, Mooseheads	19	15	9.68	5.32	69	21.74	3	0	21	6	40	19	21	20	52	6	0	0	0	19	0	1.55	26	2	4.31	27	9	3.82	16	4
Markus	Vidicek	6	C	Halifax, Mooseheads	27	19	8.98	10.02	89	21.35	2	2	5	13	45	23	22	28	58	17	313	588	53.23	27	0	2.71	53	10	4.28	27	6	1.99	9	3

Drummondville:

First Name	Last Name	Jersey Number	Position	Team	Games Played	Goals	Expected Goals	Goals Above Expected	Shots	Goal Percent	Power Play Goals	Short Handed Goals	First Assists	Second Assists	Plus	Minus	Plus / Minus	Goals Against On Ice	Goals On Ice	Penalty Minutes	Faceoff Wins	Faceoff Attempts	Faceoff Percent	Times Assistant	Times Captain	Low Danger Expected Goals	Low Danger Shots	Low Danger Goals	Medium Danger Expected Goals	Medium Danger Shots	Medium Danger Goals	High Danger Expected Goals	High Danger Shots	High Danger Goals
Justin	Côté	92	RW	Drummondville, Voltigeurs	30	14	11.71	2.29	96	14.58	4	1	10	4	24	19	5	21	44	8	2	5	40	29	0	2.25	49	1	4.95	31	10	4.51	16	3
Luke	Woodworth	19	C	Drummondville, Voltigeurs	30	15	10.51	4.49	86	17.44	1	1	15	4	35	15	20	21	52	14	293	558	52.51	0	29	3.27	52	5	2.81	19	5	4.43	15	5
Sam	Oliver	47	LW	Drummondville, Voltigeurs	30	10	9.94	0.06	108	9.26	2	0	8	3	25	16	9	25	31	16	110	232	47.41	0	0	3.75	73	2	3.95	26	5	2.23	9	3

Summary: It's interesting to see Dumais up that high in goals with only 19 games played. Drummondvilles top 3 players combined to score less goals in 30 games than our top 3 players in 27 (and 19 games). None of Drummondvilles players have a great Goals Above Expected (GAx) showing that most of their goals come from a lot of average shots. On the other hand, we see high Goals Above Expected (GAx) for the top Moose indicating great shots. All 3 Moose have a higher goal percent than the best shooter, Luke Woodworth, from Drummondville which just underlines my first statement. We can expect many shots from all angles from the Voltigeurs and some precise, few shots from the Moose (as we have seen in the past games). Given Mercers skill at fighting of high danger shots, this might cause some issues for the Moose. 


Final Words:

A lot of information and it’s still a WIP (but I guess close to an MVP) with some features/information missing but if people care I could see myself making it publicly accessible sometime in the next month or two. There is also way less data available for the QMJHL compared to the NHL which makes some estimates a little ‘rough’.

Any feedback is appreciated. If interest is there, I'd be happy to explain how some of the stats are calculated.  




Also let me know if you like these summaries and I can continue putting them out for every game. Maybe I will only include the other teams information as the stats for the Mooseheads don't change much - if that makes sense? Oh and of course I don't own any of the data but the CHL/QMJHL does - I am just making it easily readable and come up with some more intricate stats.