|
Post by hockeydad on Dec 7, 2023 16:36:40 GMT -4
No Rousseau ouch might be ugly tonight 6-2 Drummondville the losing streak continues. Might want to play the trap tonight with the lines except first line if they want to keep it close .
|
|
|
Post by mooseguy on Dec 7, 2023 19:47:57 GMT -4
A couple of lasers by Vidicek but a bit of a defensive let down in the last 5 seconds brings the Volts back within 1 on the powerplay. The Moosehads looked like a team of boys vs men on the Drummondville penalty kill. Strength along the boards freezing the puck with 3 Volts players and they still came out with the puck each time. Moose will have to adjust to that.
|
|
|
Post by hfxfan2002 on Dec 7, 2023 20:14:44 GMT -4
Low shot affair, shots 12-8 Drummondville half way through.
|
|
|
Post by hfxfan2002 on Dec 7, 2023 20:42:38 GMT -4
Vidicek, Peitzsche, and MacPhee are the only forwards in my opinion giving 100% in this game.
|
|
|
Post by Jacques Strap on Dec 7, 2023 20:59:55 GMT -4
So is Team Canada going to care if Dumais doesn't play defense or will he have to make more of an effort or get cut?
|
|
|
Post by hfxfan2002 on Dec 7, 2023 22:13:36 GMT -4
Dumais has looked very careless and frustrated at points in the game. Gave about 75% out there today. Some lousy skating defensively, unless that’s his way of saving endurance.
Meanwhile Vidicek was winning draws and setting up plays, looked decent on the PK, and got a hat trick.
Dumais must be saving his energy for the World Juniors. Hopefully he comes back with gold and a fresh mindset. I looked back at his first career Q goal in 2020-21. So much happier, you know he just wants to be in the pros.
|
|
guffmcshay
Draft Pick
"Don't feed a guy a sponge"
Posts: 41
|
Post by guffmcshay on Dec 7, 2023 22:29:50 GMT -4
Nice win and a nice game from Milner. That should help his confidence level.
|
|
|
Post by trueblue on Dec 7, 2023 22:36:25 GMT -4
Good win!
Anyone else noticing how bad Martin is struggling right now?
|
|
Roscoe
Blue-Chip Prospect
Posts: 377
|
Post by Roscoe on Dec 8, 2023 3:13:32 GMT -4
So is Team Canada going to care if Dumais doesn't play defense or will he have to make more of an effort or get cut? I was thinking the same thing. The skill is obviously there but seemed to be just going through the motions on Thursday... P.S. His agent should get him an acting coach. Would be a plus to crack a smile and look engaged when he's talking to the media.
|
|
|
Post by Jacques Strap on Dec 8, 2023 8:49:22 GMT -4
So is Team Canada going to care if Dumais doesn't play defense or will he have to make more of an effort or get cut? I was thinking the same thing. The skill is obviously there but seemed to be just going through the motions on Thursday... P.S. His agent should get him an acting coach. Would be a plus to crack a smile and look engaged when he's talking to the media. I really do love Dumais but he is frustrating me. He is like comatose out there. The only emotion I saw from him last night was when he got pissed that Vidicek didn't pass him the puck. He has got to fix this attitude problem or whatever it is he has going on. This is only my opinion.
|
|
|
Post by Reesor on Dec 8, 2023 8:53:33 GMT -4
Thought last night's game was very entertaining. Very good effort from Milner. Vidicek was awesome. Not as harsh on Dumais. I thought he was very creative at times and that play to set up Vidicek on the 2-0 goal was fantastic. All in all a good win against a good team to try and turn the ship around. Watch out for the trap game tonight.
|
|
|
Post by itstime on Dec 8, 2023 9:30:35 GMT -4
I was thinking the same thing. The skill is obviously there but seemed to be just going through the motions on Thursday... P.S. His agent should get him an acting coach. Would be a plus to crack a smile and look engaged when he's talking to the media. I really do love Dumais but he is frustrating me. He is like comatose out there. The only emotion I saw from him last night was when he got pissed that Vidicek didn't pass him the puck. He has got to fix this attitude problem or whatever it is he has going on. This is only my opinion. I 100% agree with you that Dumais is struggling and his work ethic is not what it was when he first returned from the NHL Camp. That being said he undressed those two defenders on the first goal. I think Dumais is playing that way so he doesn’t get hurt for the World Juniors. I think you will see him play a lot better when he returns in the new year. He will need to play defence if he is going to play in the world Juniors. The other thing that I think is killing Dumais is his playing time. The kids has multiple 2 min shifts so he is conserving his energy so he can do this, he only works on offense. If the coaching staff stop allowing him to do this you would see more on both ends. But this is the problem in the Q, they don’t develop how top point getters to defend and they don’t hold them accountable defensively because you need the scoring
|
|
|
Post by statsman18 on Dec 8, 2023 9:52:08 GMT -4
I have been working on something like MoneyPuck for the QMJHL for a while as kind of a fun side-project. I just always liked MoneyPuck and I think it’s interesting to compare statistical predictions (based on assumptions and math) with what the general public thinks. Plus, I am a big data/stats/math guy that loves hockey so there is that as well. Anyways, here are some stats for tonights game: Game Outcomes: (these update live while the game is played based on a bunch of factors)Current Win Probability For Halifax: 53% Current Win Probability For Drummondville: 32%Current Overtime Probability: 15% Goalies: (had ChatGPT give me a hand here a little)Jack Milner gets the nod between the pipes in light of Rousseau's injury. Across 8 games played, Milner has a Goals Against (GA) of 25, leading to an average Goals Against Average (GAA) of 3.13. His Expected Goals Against (xGA) is 22.23, resulting in a Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) of -2.77. Having spent a total of 478 minutes on the ice, Milner faced 30 high-danger shots, allowing 12 high-danger goals against (xHDGA), while the expected High-Danger Goals Against (HDGAx) were 7.49. This leads to a High Danger Goals Saved Above Expected (HDGSAx) of -4.51. In the medium-danger category, he faced 50 shots, allowing 8 goals against with an expected goals against (xMDGA) of 8.25, resulting in a Medium Danger Goals Saved Above Expected (MDGSAx) of 0.25. As for low-danger shots, Milner faced 147, allowing 7 goals against, while the expected goals against (xLDGA) were 6.49, leading to a Low Danger Goals Saved Above Expected (LDGSAx) of -0.51. For Drummondville, we can expect Riley Mercer (confirmed since I started writing) who has demonstrated his skills in 22 games played. With a total of 59 Goals Against (GA), Mercer maintains a Goals Against Average (GAA) of 2.68, outperforming the Expected Goals Against (xGA) of 64.35 and achieving a Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) of 5.35. Mercer has been a key presence on the ice for a substantial 1285.85 minutes. Facing 70 high-danger shots, he allowed 15 goals against with an Expected Goals Against (xHDGA) of 19.88, resulting in a High Danger Goals Saved Above Expected (HDGSAx) of 4.88. In the medium-danger category, Mercer faced 156 shots, allowing 23 goals against with an Expected Goals Against (xMDGA) of 24.4, securing a Medium Danger Goals Saved Above Expected (MDGSAx) of 1.4. For low-danger shots, Mercer faced 415, allowing 22 goals against, with an Expected Goals Against (xLDGA) of 20.07, leading to a Low Danger Goals Saved Above Expected (LDGSAx) of -1.93. Summary: Milner seems to be consistent at low/medium danger chances but struggles to keep out the important high danger shots and is definitely missing some experience and game time compared to Mercer. On the other end we can except Mercer to scrape some high danger shots from the line. Brining pucks on goal and expecting a bad save on a weak shot seems to be key for success. Stats for Players Of Interest:(I don't think a write up as for the goalies would be of benefit for anyone - so here is just the top 3 players for each team)Halifax:First Name | Last Name | Jersey Number | Position | Team | Games Played | Goals | Expected Goals | Goals Above Expected | Shots | Goal Percent | Power Play Goals | Short Handed Goals | First Assists | Second Assists | Plus | Minus | Plus / Minus | Goals Against On Ice | Goals On Ice | Penalty Minutes | Faceoff Wins | Faceoff Attempts | Faceoff Percent | Times Assistant | Times Captain | Low Danger Expected Goals | Low Danger Shots | Low Danger Goals | Medium Danger Expected Goals | Medium Danger Shots | Medium Danger Goals | High Danger Expected Goals | High Danger Shots | High Danger Goals |
---|
Mathieu | Cataford | 10 | C | Halifax, Mooseheads | 27 | 14 | 10.65 | 3.35 | 80 | 17.5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 49 | 21 | 28 | 22 | 63 | 6 | 146 | 269 | 54.28 | 18 | 0 | 2.09 | 36 | 4 | 4.62 | 29 | 7 | 3.94 | 15 | 3 | Jordan | Dumais | 11 | RW | Halifax, Mooseheads | 19 | 15 | 9.68 | 5.32 | 69 | 21.74 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 6 | 40 | 19 | 21 | 20 | 52 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 1.55 | 26 | 2 | 4.31 | 27 | 9 | 3.82 | 16 | 4 | Markus | Vidicek | 6 | C | Halifax, Mooseheads | 27 | 19 | 8.98 | 10.02 | 89 | 21.35 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 45 | 23 | 22 | 28 | 58 | 17 | 313 | 588 | 53.23 | 27 | 0 | 2.71 | 53 | 10 | 4.28 | 27 | 6 | 1.99 | 9 | 3 |
Drummondville: First Name | Last Name | Jersey Number | Position | Team | Games Played | Goals | Expected Goals | Goals Above Expected | Shots | Goal Percent | Power Play Goals | Short Handed Goals | First Assists | Second Assists | Plus | Minus | Plus / Minus | Goals Against On Ice | Goals On Ice | Penalty Minutes | Faceoff Wins | Faceoff Attempts | Faceoff Percent | Times Assistant | Times Captain | Low Danger Expected Goals | Low Danger Shots | Low Danger Goals | Medium Danger Expected Goals | Medium Danger Shots | Medium Danger Goals | High Danger Expected Goals | High Danger Shots | High Danger Goals |
---|
Justin | Côté | 92 | RW | Drummondville, Voltigeurs | 30 | 14 | 11.71 | 2.29 | 96 | 14.58 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 24 | 19 | 5 | 21 | 44 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 40 | 29 | 0 | 2.25 | 49 | 1 | 4.95 | 31 | 10 | 4.51 | 16 | 3 | Luke | Woodworth | 19 | C | Drummondville, Voltigeurs | 30 | 15 | 10.51 | 4.49 | 86 | 17.44 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 4 | 35 | 15 | 20 | 21 | 52 | 14 | 293 | 558 | 52.51 | 0 | 29 | 3.27 | 52 | 5 | 2.81 | 19 | 5 | 4.43 | 15 | 5 | Sam | Oliver | 47 | LW | Drummondville, Voltigeurs | 30 | 10 | 9.94 | 0.06 | 108 | 9.26 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 25 | 16 | 9 | 25 | 31 | 16 | 110 | 232 | 47.41 | 0 | 0 | 3.75 | 73 | 2 | 3.95 | 26 | 5 | 2.23 | 9 | 3 |
Summary: It's interesting to see Dumais up that high in goals with only 19 games played. Drummondvilles top 3 players combined to score less goals in 30 games than our top 3 players in 27 (and 19 games). None of Drummondvilles players have a great Goals Above Expected (GAx) showing that most of their goals come from a lot of average shots. On the other hand, we see high Goals Above Expected (GAx) for the top Moose indicating great shots. All 3 Moose have a higher goal percent than the best shooter, Luke Woodworth, from Drummondville which just underlines my first statement. We can expect many shots from all angles from the Voltigeurs and some precise, few shots from the Moose (as we have seen in the past games). Given Mercers skill at fighting of high danger shots, this might cause some issues for the Moose. Final Words:A lot of information and it’s still a WIP (but I guess close to an MVP) with some features/information missing but if people care I could see myself making it publicly accessible sometime in the next month or two. There is also way less data available for the QMJHL compared to the NHL which makes some estimates a little ‘rough’. Any feedback is appreciated. If interest is there, I'd be happy to explain how some of the stats are calculated.
Also let me know if you like these summaries and I can continue putting them out for every game. Maybe I will only include the other teams information as the stats for the Mooseheads don't change much - if that makes sense? Oh and of course I don't own any of the data but the CHL/QMJHL does - I am just making it easily readable and come up with some more intricate stats. I liked it but I do have 2 questions. 1 how does Halifax have an above 50% chance with Milner starting? I see that I immediately think this is going to be a loss. Not saying the math is wrong I just want to see why the math says it. Does that make sense? Question 2. What the hell is all the matrix stuff in the middle of the post?
|
|
Sean
Blue-Chip Prospect
Posts: 330
|
Post by Sean on Dec 8, 2023 10:22:36 GMT -4
I have been working on something like MoneyPuck for the QMJHL for a while as kind of a fun side-project. I just always liked MoneyPuck and I think it’s interesting to compare statistical predictions (based on assumptions and math) with what the general public thinks. Plus, I am a big data/stats/math guy that loves hockey so there is that as well. Anyways, here are some stats for tonights game: Game Outcomes: (these update live while the game is played based on a bunch of factors)Current Win Probability For Halifax: 53% Current Win Probability For Drummondville: 32%Current Overtime Probability: 15% Goalies: (had ChatGPT give me a hand here a little)Jack Milner gets the nod between the pipes in light of Rousseau's injury. Across 8 games played, Milner has a Goals Against (GA) of 25, leading to an average Goals Against Average (GAA) of 3.13. His Expected Goals Against (xGA) is 22.23, resulting in a Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) of -2.77. Having spent a total of 478 minutes on the ice, Milner faced 30 high-danger shots, allowing 12 high-danger goals against (xHDGA), while the expected High-Danger Goals Against (HDGAx) were 7.49. This leads to a High Danger Goals Saved Above Expected (HDGSAx) of -4.51. In the medium-danger category, he faced 50 shots, allowing 8 goals against with an expected goals against (xMDGA) of 8.25, resulting in a Medium Danger Goals Saved Above Expected (MDGSAx) of 0.25. As for low-danger shots, Milner faced 147, allowing 7 goals against, while the expected goals against (xLDGA) were 6.49, leading to a Low Danger Goals Saved Above Expected (LDGSAx) of -0.51. For Drummondville, we can expect Riley Mercer (confirmed since I started writing) who has demonstrated his skills in 22 games played. With a total of 59 Goals Against (GA), Mercer maintains a Goals Against Average (GAA) of 2.68, outperforming the Expected Goals Against (xGA) of 64.35 and achieving a Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) of 5.35. Mercer has been a key presence on the ice for a substantial 1285.85 minutes. Facing 70 high-danger shots, he allowed 15 goals against with an Expected Goals Against (xHDGA) of 19.88, resulting in a High Danger Goals Saved Above Expected (HDGSAx) of 4.88. In the medium-danger category, Mercer faced 156 shots, allowing 23 goals against with an Expected Goals Against (xMDGA) of 24.4, securing a Medium Danger Goals Saved Above Expected (MDGSAx) of 1.4. For low-danger shots, Mercer faced 415, allowing 22 goals against, with an Expected Goals Against (xLDGA) of 20.07, leading to a Low Danger Goals Saved Above Expected (LDGSAx) of -1.93. Summary: Milner seems to be consistent at low/medium danger chances but struggles to keep out the important high danger shots and is definitely missing some experience and game time compared to Mercer. On the other end we can except Mercer to scrape some high danger shots from the line. Brining pucks on goal and expecting a bad save on a weak shot seems to be key for success. Stats for Players Of Interest:(I don't think a write up as for the goalies would be of benefit for anyone - so here is just the top 3 players for each team)Halifax:First Name | Last Name | Jersey Number | Position | Team | Games Played | Goals | Expected Goals | Goals Above Expected | Shots | Goal Percent | Power Play Goals | Short Handed Goals | First Assists | Second Assists | Plus | Minus | Plus / Minus | Goals Against On Ice | Goals On Ice | Penalty Minutes | Faceoff Wins | Faceoff Attempts | Faceoff Percent | Times Assistant | Times Captain | Low Danger Expected Goals | Low Danger Shots | Low Danger Goals | Medium Danger Expected Goals | Medium Danger Shots | Medium Danger Goals | High Danger Expected Goals | High Danger Shots | High Danger Goals |
---|
Mathieu | Cataford | 10 | C | Halifax, Mooseheads | 27 | 14 | 10.65 | 3.35 | 80 | 17.5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 49 | 21 | 28 | 22 | 63 | 6 | 146 | 269 | 54.28 | 18 | 0 | 2.09 | 36 | 4 | 4.62 | 29 | 7 | 3.94 | 15 | 3 | Jordan | Dumais | 11 | RW | Halifax, Mooseheads | 19 | 15 | 9.68 | 5.32 | 69 | 21.74 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 6 | 40 | 19 | 21 | 20 | 52 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 1.55 | 26 | 2 | 4.31 | 27 | 9 | 3.82 | 16 | 4 | Markus | Vidicek | 6 | C | Halifax, Mooseheads | 27 | 19 | 8.98 | 10.02 | 89 | 21.35 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 45 | 23 | 22 | 28 | 58 | 17 | 313 | 588 | 53.23 | 27 | 0 | 2.71 | 53 | 10 | 4.28 | 27 | 6 | 1.99 | 9 | 3 |
Drummondville: First Name | Last Name | Jersey Number | Position | Team | Games Played | Goals | Expected Goals | Goals Above Expected | Shots | Goal Percent | Power Play Goals | Short Handed Goals | First Assists | Second Assists | Plus | Minus | Plus / Minus | Goals Against On Ice | Goals On Ice | Penalty Minutes | Faceoff Wins | Faceoff Attempts | Faceoff Percent | Times Assistant | Times Captain | Low Danger Expected Goals | Low Danger Shots | Low Danger Goals | Medium Danger Expected Goals | Medium Danger Shots | Medium Danger Goals | High Danger Expected Goals | High Danger Shots | High Danger Goals |
---|
Justin | Côté | 92 | RW | Drummondville, Voltigeurs | 30 | 14 | 11.71 | 2.29 | 96 | 14.58 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 24 | 19 | 5 | 21 | 44 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 40 | 29 | 0 | 2.25 | 49 | 1 | 4.95 | 31 | 10 | 4.51 | 16 | 3 | Luke | Woodworth | 19 | C | Drummondville, Voltigeurs | 30 | 15 | 10.51 | 4.49 | 86 | 17.44 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 4 | 35 | 15 | 20 | 21 | 52 | 14 | 293 | 558 | 52.51 | 0 | 29 | 3.27 | 52 | 5 | 2.81 | 19 | 5 | 4.43 | 15 | 5 | Sam | Oliver | 47 | LW | Drummondville, Voltigeurs | 30 | 10 | 9.94 | 0.06 | 108 | 9.26 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 25 | 16 | 9 | 25 | 31 | 16 | 110 | 232 | 47.41 | 0 | 0 | 3.75 | 73 | 2 | 3.95 | 26 | 5 | 2.23 | 9 | 3 |
Summary: It's interesting to see Dumais up that high in goals with only 19 games played. Drummondvilles top 3 players combined to score less goals in 30 games than our top 3 players in 27 (and 19 games). None of Drummondvilles players have a great Goals Above Expected (GAx) showing that most of their goals come from a lot of average shots. On the other hand, we see high Goals Above Expected (GAx) for the top Moose indicating great shots. All 3 Moose have a higher goal percent than the best shooter, Luke Woodworth, from Drummondville which just underlines my first statement. We can expect many shots from all angles from the Voltigeurs and some precise, few shots from the Moose (as we have seen in the past games). Given Mercers skill at fighting of high danger shots, this might cause some issues for the Moose. Final Words:A lot of information and it’s still a WIP (but I guess close to an MVP) with some features/information missing but if people care I could see myself making it publicly accessible sometime in the next month or two. There is also way less data available for the QMJHL compared to the NHL which makes some estimates a little ‘rough’. Any feedback is appreciated. If interest is there, I'd be happy to explain how some of the stats are calculated.
Also let me know if you like these summaries and I can continue putting them out for every game. Maybe I will only include the other teams information as the stats for the Mooseheads don't change much - if that makes sense? Oh and of course I don't own any of the data but the CHL/QMJHL does - I am just making it easily readable and come up with some more intricate stats. Great post, thanks for sharing! Statsman doesn't seem to understand stats Can you share what time the winning % was active, was it before the lineup was known? Do you have the game winning % throughout the game? Curious.
|
|
rookieq
Blue-Chip Prospect
Posts: 301
|
Post by rookieq on Dec 8, 2023 10:35:24 GMT -4
Bomber, I agree with your summary. But, of course he is bored a little and he is looking forward to be leaving this team next week and next year as well, we have to be aware of this. I did not see a lot of floating last night compared to how he was playing two years ago, big improvement in two years. And the emotion, I don't care, yes it is fun to watch players like L'Heureux that go crazy on the ice, but those players have their downside too.
And whether some critique are legit or not, let's not forget that he only has 25 games left with the Moose and I'll take all the floating in the world in exchange of all the outstanding plays that he makes offensively. Yes, 25 regular season games and we're done. And if we do not bring significant help at the trade deadline, It will not be much more than 25.
|
|