Gatineau @ Halifax - Fri. Dec. 8

[hockeydad]

I like the effort Todd and Peitzche are putting in nightly I think a second line of them with Fournier would make more sense as they have the ability to finish just like McPhee and Larmand should be together on third line with Ponzetto as they like to mix it up but lack finishing . It’s probably a moot point as half of these guys might not be with the team after the trading period !

[fabi1309]

Here is my stats dump for tonights game: 

Gatineau has had a rough start to the season with a 9 points below a point per game pace. On the other side of the ice, the Mooseheads had a rough road trip but still boast 11 points above a point per game (2nd best in the league only shadowed by the Drakkar).

Game Outcomes:

Current Win Probability Halifax: 57%
Current Win Probability Gatineau: 28%
Current Overtime Probability: 15% 

Goalies:
(for completeness I included an update on Jack Milner)

Jack Milner can be expected in net again after a solid performance last night. Over the course of 9 games played, Milner faced 28 Goals Against (GA), with an Expected Goals Against (xGA) of 24.76. This resulted in a Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) of -3.24, and an average Goals Against Average (GAA) of 3.11. Milner spent a total of 538 minutes on the ice, contending with 32 high-danger shots. He allowed 12 high-danger goals against (HDGA), while the expected High-Danger Goals Against (HDGAx) were 7.92, leading to a High Danger Goals Saved Above Expected (HDGSAx) of -4.08. In the medium-danger category, Milner faced 58 shots, allowing 9 goals against (MDGA), with an expected goals against (xMDGA) of 9.45. This resulted in a Medium Danger Goals Saved Above Expected (MDGSAx) of 0.45. As for low-danger shots, Milner faced 168, allowing 9 goals against (LDGA), while the expected goals against (xLDGA) were 7.39. This led to a Low Danger Goals Saved Above Expected (LDGSAx) of -1.61.

We have no confirmation on Gatineau's starting goalie. Both Zach Pelletier and Kian Hodgins have 17 games played with Hodgins having started last night against CB giving me the hunch that Pelletier might get the start (further supported by the 7 goals against during last nights game). Over the course of 17 games played, Pelletier faced 67 Goals Against (GA), with an Expected Goals Against (xGA) of 52.45. This resulted in a Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) of -14.55, and an average Goals Against Average (GAA) of 3.94. Pelletier spent a total of 809.7 minutes on the ice, contending with 77 high-danger shots. He allowed 22 high-danger goals against (HDGA), while the expected High-Danger Goals Against (HDGAx) were 25.96, leading to a High Danger Goals Saved Above Expected (HDGSAx) of 3.96. In the medium-danger category, Pelletier faced 87 shots, allowing 24 goals against (MDGA), with an expected goals against (xMDGA) of 13.98. This resulted in a Medium Danger Goals Saved Above Expected (MDGSAx) of -10.02. As for low-danger shots, Pelletier faced 307, allowing 21 goals against (LDGA), while the expected goals against (xLDGA) were 12.5. This led to a Low Danger Goals Saved Above Expected (LDGSAx) of -8.5.


Summary: On paper Milner has the upper hand in every aspect except High Danger Goals Saved Above Expected (HDGSAx). Tho, we can't forget Milner's statistics will be inflated due to his slow start. Last night he had a couple of very low danger shots from the blue line slip through plus a medium danger shot from the his left side of the net. Pelletier on the other hand seems to perform some spectacular saves but struggle with lots of shots on net from all angles - something the Moose don't usually do. If we see something as against Val d Or with only a couple of shots on net at times and Gatineau brings their shots on net, we could see an unexpected result in tonight's game.


Players Of Interest:
(sorry Statsman, I still haven't found a way to embed tables in a better way - best viewed on computer)

Halifax:

As I don't want to show Cataford, Dumais and Vidicek every game, I will make some subjective decisions on who to feature every game (or maybe people can suggest a player). In today's game I would love to see some more action from Peitzsche, Todd and maybe a first goal from Larmand. Here are their stats:

First Name	Last Name	Jersey Number	Position	Team	Games Played	Goals	Expected Goals	Goals Above Expected	Shots	Goal Percent	Power Play Goals	Short Handed Goals	First Assists	Second Assists	Plus	Minus	Plus / Minus	Goals Against On Ice	Goals On Ice	Penalty Minutes	Faceoff Wins	Faceoff Attempts	Faceoff Percent	Times Assistant	Times Captain	Low Danger Expected Goals	Low Danger Shots	Low Danger Goals	Medium Danger Expected Goals	Medium Danger Shots	Medium Danger Goals	High Danger Expected Goals	High Danger Shots	High Danger Goals
Ethan	Larmand	55	C	Halifax, Mooseheads	7	0	1.44	-1.44	10	0	0	0	1	0	2	7	-5	8	2	10	39	85	45.88	0	0	0.16	3	0	0.77	5	0	0.51	2	0
Jake	Todd	63	C	Halifax, Mooseheads	30	3	3.32	-0.32	27	11.11	0	0	1	2	9	15	-6	17	11	12	76	191	39.79	0	0	0.68	13	1	1.47	9	1	1.17	5	1
Reece	Peitzsche	19	LW	Halifax, Mooseheads	30	6	6.31	-0.31	50	12	2	0	3	0	12	13	-1	13	16	4	6	11	54.55	0	0	1.38	23	0	3.02	19	2	1.91	8	4

Gatineau:

First Name	Last Name	Jersey Number	Position	Team	Games Played	Goals	Expected Goals	Goals Above Expected	Shots	Goal Percent	Power Play Goals	Short Handed Goals	First Assists	Second Assists	Plus	Minus	Plus / Minus	Goals Against On Ice	Goals On Ice	Penalty Minutes	Faceoff Wins	Faceoff Attempts	Faceoff Percent	Times Assistant	Times Captain	Low Danger Expected Goals	Low Danger Shots	Low Danger Goals	Medium Danger Expected Goals	Medium Danger Shots	Medium Danger Goals	High Danger Expected Goals	High Danger Shots	High Danger Goals
Jérémie	Minville	27	LW	Gatineau, Olympiques	30	19	13.92	5.08	104	18.27	2	1	8	11	36	41	-5	50	46	22	9	22	40.91	4	0	2.59	50	4	5.04	32	8	6.29	22	7
Charles	Boutin	19	C	Gatineau, Olympiques	30	11	11.2	-0.2	66	16.67	3	1	17	7	35	43	-8	51	46	39	278	562	49.47	30	0	1.71	27	2	2.5	16	4	6.98	23	5
Nathan	Lévesque	11	LW	Gatineau, Olympiques	29	12	9.61	2.39	57	21.05	2	0	6	5	28	36	-8	36	34	10	0	0	0	0	0	1.58	24	5	2.32	14	2	5.71	19	5

Summary:

Larmand really hasn't brought to the ice what he was acquired for: Faceoff Wins (45% Faceoff Probability). His Plus/Minus with -5 isn't great either. And 10 shots in 7 games is definitely too low considering he is taking up a 20-year-old spot. However, with 10 penalty minutes in 7 games he definitely brings some grit to the game. Todd and Peitzsche have been performing pretty well for the expectations - perfectly aligned with their expected goals and 1-2 shots per game. Then we have Gatineau, with a clear powerhouse and 5.08 Goals Above Expected - Jeremie Minville. 104 shots in only 30 games leading to 19 goals shows that his idea of success is to bring the puck on goal - also underlined by the high number of low danger shots. Following him, we see Charles Boutin with a high 39 penalty minutes and not much scoring above what is expected. It will be interesting to see his character clash with MacPhee and Larmand. Nathan Levesque has some above expected scoring going on and the highest likelihood to score on a shot with 21.05%. All their best players have a negative plus/minus.


Conclusion:

Based on the data, I would say this will be a win for Halifax especially given the okay offence and goaltending for Gatineau. The stat that brings me worry is that Pelletier seems to perform well for the high danger shots which Halifax bases their success on with the first line. On the other hand, it seems like Gatineau likes to bring the puck on net which may cause issue for Milner. 

[hfxfan2002]

We’ll get a good look at this Jeremie Minville kid today, plus Milner back to back starts. First since the opening weekend set of games against Charlottetown.

[Joe Burrow]

2-1 moose and enough posting of this stats dump crap 🤬

[moosefan1994]

Dec 8, 2023 13:21:02 GMT -4 Joe Burrow said:

2-1 moose and enough posting of this stats dump crap 🤬

Nobody forcing you to read those stats bud!!

[hockeydad]

Milner might become a half decent goalie for us in a couple of years but let’s face it we need an upgrade there as well if we are planning on making a run .

[papadopoulos]

Dec 8, 2023 13:21:02 GMT -4 Joe Burrow said:

2-1 moose and enough posting of this stats dump crap 🤬

By no means are you held at gunpoint to read it.

[hfxfan2002]

Peitzsche finally gets upgraded to third line, well deserved too. Some great plays last night.

[Reesor]

Well that was bound to happen at some point. At least it was 3 feet offside and not millimeters.

[trueblue]

Dec 8, 2023 19:43:55 GMT -4 Reesor said:

Well that was bound to happen at some point. At least it was 3 feet offside and not millimeters.

I'm in Section 7 literally right on the blueline, knew right away haha.

[Jacques Strap]

A little bit problematic. The Mooseheads will probably have to score more goals to win with Milner in nets but then they are losing their top 2 scorers. It is going to be a long month.

[mooseguy]

Mooseheads are like that person who has one good pick up line at a bar that works most times but when it doesn't they have nothing to go to.

[hfxfan2002]

How was the game? How did Minville look? Anyone other then Cataford/Vidicek/Dumais do well today?

So Mathis Rousseau was out day-to-day for schoolwork. According to an Instagram comment he had a term paper due tonight. He was in the building however!

[hfxfan09]

I'm not going to fault Milner for any of the goals, I think he has made huge strides. The team didn't play as well as last night; but they started coming on in the Second; I said as soon as Catty had 2 let's go for the hat trick and who scores the OT winner.

IMO they need to eliminate the off-side rule after a goal is scored just scrap that rule altogether or call the bloody off-side the first time and take the Ipad's from the coaches(probably won't happen and a good thing I'm not running it or I would think about it)

Another team tmr night lower in the standings but we can't take SJ lightly; I have read conflicting things or 4 were leaving for Canada camp after tonight's game but then I thought I read last night they weren't leaving till Sunday.
(I thought Schultz, and MacPhee had a strong game, and Larmand isn't playing bad by any means and almost scored tonight)

[canbeer]

Obviously we need some additions and upgrades to our forward group but it’s amazing how little our depth gets rewarded. I don’t mean by the coaches and with icetime but basically never get a break with bounces or a puck finding it’s way through the goalie.

The forecheck, the work ethic, the energy for Todd and MacPhee had been great lately and especially noticeable tonight… it would be nice to see them rewarded with the odd goal.

3 of Gatineau’s 4 came off of rebounds… Milner probably would like a 2nd chance at those initial shots but those goals are largely on the D and forwards in front of him as well. Whether it’s rebounds or on the back check we always have guys in the area but they are way too easy on opponents sticks. It’s a skill, a habit, a style that the coaches need to improve and develop every practice.