The Direction Of This Franchise

[brec7]

I don't want to read too much into rumours... but I was told a few weeks back the Eagles were going to try to put a really strong team on the ice this year, and this has been backed up by rumours on the boards and text in the newspapers.

Obviously any time your team takes a run at the President's Cup there's excitement but I think right now in Cape Breton (at least on this forum) there's confusion and concern so I thought I'd throw in my two cents on it.

First of all, if this team is going for it, let's look at other times this team has gone for it and how this time around compares. I think there have been 3 real "go for it" years in Cape Breton- 2002, 2004, and 2007.

2002 & 2004 were a bit different than your usual runs at a championsihp. 2002 was the result of years of selling (which was caused by consecutive years of buying in Granby). In 2004 the team was mainly built by a trade that skirting the whole rebuilding process- acquiring assets for a run without actually giving up anything.

Then we have 2007, which most closely resembles that famous "3 year cycle" that we hear so much about in junior. After a big turnover in 2004, the team waited 3 years to take a run at a title again. If we believe 2010 is the next big year we're approaching the end of another 3 year cycle.

So why the cynicism on this forum? Well, I think it's because people believe that that we're less equipped for this run than we were in 2007.

The building for 2007 began in 2004. For the 2004 run, the big asset we gave up was our first round pick in 2003. Other than that, we didn't (to my memory) part with any notable future assets. In fact, we IMPROVED our next run by upgrading our first round pick to 1st overall.

The building to 2010 began in 2007. For the 2007 run, we parted with our top two picks in 2006, as well as our top pick in 2005. Oh and since then we're traded our top pick from 2007.

So, on paper, we look less prepared for a run in which we didn't make the league finals.

To discuss more recent occurrences, some fans would debate (in fact I think most would) that the 2008-09 Eagles were stronger on paper than next year's version looks on paper. Given that fact, combined with unusually cheap prices at last year's deadline, if this team wanted to run at a Q title, why wasn't it done last year instead of this year?

It would appear that Mario Durocher is taking a gamble. He's gambling that all can go right, will go right, and that we'll ice a stronger team in 2009-10 then we did in 2008-09. Let's compare the two teams, assuming that Ellis goes for Doyle (big assumption), Chouinard goes for Adam (not a big assumption IMO), Ward/Piskasek are back, and Stinziani is the odd 20 out.

GOAL/DEFENSE
Hard to argue that the Eagles wouldn't be a fair bit improved here... mainly by staying the same. Ellis was a good contributor last year, but his contributions are more than made up by a year's worth of improvement from the top 4 on the blueline and Roy.

FORWARDS
Unlike the backend where everything is stable, Mario seems to be banking on a much different forward core coming through.

In: Doyle, Adam, Euro, Bernard
Out: Slaney, Culligan, Haddad, Stinziani, Chouinard, Gauthier, Lavigeur

There will be varying levels of development from Horryl, MacDougal, Shaw, Lesieur, Desveaux, and MacCarron. To be honest, I don't see much upside in Desveaux or MacCarron, and it's a bit much to expect a lot from Shaw or Lesieur at 17. The substantial development would have to come from Horryl and MacDougal.

It's hard to imagine the improvement of Horryl/MacDougal and the input of the news guys greatly exceeding what we're losing in offense. Perhaps Mario is banking on an offense equal to last year's (much more top heavy though with far less depth, which is more similar to past Eagles teams) with a much greater defense.

I'm not assuming these rumours as fact, but IF they are true, I think we have a very strong team, but not necessarily a league favourite.

And what if, come Christmas time, Mario decides that the team needs more tinkering to go over the top. What then? Lesieur and Shaw would be the only youth to trade.

It's a very risky strategy, one that could pay off or one that could blow up. To me it seems too much has to fall into place for this to truly pay off. And more interesting to consider....

What of the 2012 Memorial Cup?

The Eagles seem pretty optimistic of their chances of winning the bid. If they are to win the bid, what kind of team will we be icing come 2011-12? If Mario is making all these moves now I think we can assume he'll make a move at the deadline. This means the cupboards will be empty... I would think in order to have a strong host team we'll REALLY have to sacrafise 2010-11 AND 2012-13, which would be a big departure from the current Eagles philosophy.

If all of this were true, (assuming Chouinard + picks for Adam, Ellis + picks for Doyle) the only current roster players sure to return would be Shaw, Lesieur, and Roy. (Assuming none had been traded). Possible 20's would be likely Doyle, Adam, Horryl, MacDougal, Brodeur, Meilluer... some of which would likely have gone pro (the ones with the most value). I think the team would pretty much have to be gutted COMPLETELY (I'm talking near 02-03 Oceanic proporitons) in order for the Eagles to be a good host in 2011-12.

If we look at all these potential moves JUST in the context of the upcoming season, it looks like a BIG risk for Mario that still could end up with a championship reward. If we look at them in the bigger picture, for a team with both a mindset of being good every year, and Memorial Cup hosting aspirations, they really don't appear to make much sense.

Go Eagles Go.

[Art Vandelay]

Great Post.
I was told by Paul MacDonald at the beginning of the week , that he expected to have a really good team this year . I was expecting some minor tweaking . But for the most part just to set sail with the players we had. But from I've been hearing / reading . I'm as lost as the next guy in this trigger happy world Mario Durocher seems to be in . He gets a player in his mind he likes and he goes after him no matter what the price , so it seems.
I cant under stand trading Ellis . If we play on going for it in 2012 he would 19 years of age and in the prime of his major junior career.

I think if all the trades go down as rumored , Bob Johnson better get used to picking high in the draft again because it wont look bright after the season. With only 1 18 yr old & 2/3 17 year olds on the roster.

We can only wait and see.

[iowzdahchiefs]

Sure, I would think that there is reason to be skeptical about these moves but somethings that you are not looking at though are, is this the sign of the end of the Eagles great stretch. I would think, the organization has looked long and hard at what they have in their sytem and will be left with next year and something doesn't sit right with them. Maybe the character that the Eagles have been known for the last 4 years is not in the kids that are being moved, you all would know that better then me.
Everyone knows that the type of run the the eagles have been on for the few years is not sustainable and is running out and I think that this is a sign that managment is predicting that and are trying to do something to steer clear of it. The draft is weak this year and picking an Adam and Doyle does not lock the Eagles in to these guys. If the Eagles do not see a run happening with the 09-10 team then moving 1 or both of these guys in the trade period can net picks in a stronger draft and may get a better return for proven talent at the winter trade period.

Just saying.

[brec7]

It's possible you're exactly right iowzdahchiefs... the Eagles see that the end is near for "being good every year" and want to end it with a bang. I just think that the timing is a bit unusal, given that the team was arguably better last year and there is a potential Cup bid 2 years later...

[Clubber Lang]

Jun 4, 2009 18:26:32 GMT -4 brec7 said:

I don't want to read too much into rumours... but I was told a few weeks back the Eagles were going to try to put a really strong team on the ice this year, and this has been backed up by rumours on the boards and text in the newspapers.

Obviously any time your team takes a run at the President's Cup there's excitement but I think right now in Cape Breton (at least on this forum) there's confusion and concern so I thought I'd throw in my two cents on it.

First of all, if this team is going for it, let's look at other times this team has gone for it and how this time around compares. I think there have been 3 real "go for it" years in Cape Breton- 2002, 2004, and 2007.

2002 & 2004 were a bit different than your usual runs at a championsihp. 2002 was the result of years of selling (which was caused by consecutive years of buying in Granby). In 2004 the team was mainly built by a trade that skirting the whole rebuilding process- acquiring assets for a run without actually giving up anything.

Then we have 2007, which most closely resembles that famous "3 year cycle" that we hear so much about in junior. After a big turnover in 2004, the team waited 3 years to take a run at a title again. If we believe 2010 is the next big year we're approaching the end of another 3 year cycle.

So why the cynicism on this forum? Well, I think it's because people believe that that we're less equipped for this run than we were in 2007.

The building for 2007 began in 2004. For the 2004 run, the big asset we gave up was our first round pick in 2003. Other than that, we didn't (to my memory) part with any notable future assets. In fact, we IMPROVED our next run by upgrading our first round pick to 1st overall.

The building to 2010 began in 2007. For the 2007 run, we parted with our top two picks in 2006, as well as our top pick in 2005. Oh and since then we're traded our top pick from 2007.

So, on paper, we look less prepared for a run in which we didn't make the league finals.

To discuss more recent occurrences, some fans would debate (in fact I think most would) that the 2008-09 Eagles were stronger on paper than next year's version looks on paper. Given that fact, combined with unusually cheap prices at last year's deadline, if this team wanted to run at a Q title, why wasn't it done last year instead of this year?

It would appear that Mario Durocher is taking a gamble. He's gambling that all can go right, will go right, and that we'll ice a stronger team in 2009-10 then we did in 2008-09. Let's compare the two teams, assuming that Ellis goes for Doyle (big assumption), Chouinard goes for Adam (not a big assumption IMO), Ward/Piskasek are back, and Stinziani is the odd 20 out.

GOAL/DEFENSE
Hard to argue that the Eagles wouldn't be a fair bit improved here... mainly by staying the same. Ellis was a good contributor last year, but his contributions are more than made up by a year's worth of improvement from the top 4 on the blueline and Roy.

FORWARDS
Unlike the backend where everything is stable, Mario seems to be banking on a much different forward core coming through.

In: Doyle, Adam, Euro, Bernard
Out: Slaney, Culligan, Haddad, Stinziani, Chouinard, Gauthier, Lavigeur

There will be varying levels of development from Horryl, MacDougal, Shaw, Lesieur, Desveaux, and MacCarron. To be honest, I don't see much upside in Desveaux or MacCarron, and it's a bit much to expect a lot from Shaw or Lesieur at 17. The substantial development would have to come from Horryl and MacDougal.

It's hard to imagine the improvement of Horryl/MacDougal and the input of the news guys greatly exceeding what we're losing in offense. Perhaps Mario is banking on an offense equal to last year's (much more top heavy though with far less depth, which is more similar to past Eagles teams) with a much greater defense.

I'm not assuming these rumours as fact, but IF they are true, I think we have a very strong team, but not necessarily a league favourite.

And what if, come Christmas time, Mario decides that the team needs more tinkering to go over the top. What then? Lesieur and Shaw would be the only youth to trade.

It's a very risky strategy, one that could pay off or one that could blow up. To me it seems too much has to fall into place for this to truly pay off. And more interesting to consider....

What of the 2012 Memorial Cup?

The Eagles seem pretty optimistic of their chances of winning the bid. If they are to win the bid, what kind of team will we be icing come 2011-12? If Mario is making all these moves now I think we can assume he'll make a move at the deadline. This means the cupboards will be empty... I would think in order to have a strong host team we'll REALLY have to sacrafise 2010-11 AND 2012-13, which would be a big departure from the current Eagles philosophy.

If all of this were true, (assuming Chouinard + picks for Adam, Ellis + picks for Doyle) the only current roster players sure to return would be Shaw, Lesieur, and Roy. (Assuming none had been traded). Possible 20's would be likely Doyle, Adam, Horryl, MacDougal, Brodeur, Meilluer... some of which would likely have gone pro (the ones with the most value). I think the team would pretty much have to be gutted COMPLETELY (I'm talking near 02-03 Oceanic proporitons) in order for the Eagles to be a good host in 2011-12.

If we look at all these potential moves JUST in the context of the upcoming season, it looks like a BIG risk for Mario that still could end up with a championship reward. If we look at them in the bigger picture, for a team with both a mindset of being good every year, and Memorial Cup hosting aspirations, they really don't appear to make much sense.

Go Eagles Go.

I agree with your post except for the build around the 2007 run. They built after the fact and didn't put themselves in a very good position at the trade deadline. They should have traded Asselin and Zaoreto Gatineau or Chicoutimi that year and stocked the cupboard with Morrison or Nicolas Blanchard at the draft. They could have also combined Bertrand/ Zaore for a decent prospect or some picks. Houle could have been packaged the year before. There was just too many times the ball had been dropped with this organization. Jack Bauer said it best. What direction are they going in? Again players like Dean Ouellette who was a true ambassador to the organization is a distant memory now and could have been traded two years back. When was the last time you heard someone talk about Stephen Dixon in the last three years around the rink? Never! If you are going to attach yourself to players you better prepare for a let down. I am not saying I support or don't support Mario's stance he is taking today trying to build a team for success but I haven't been convinced yet that the eagles really got what it takes to pull the trigger.

[brec7]

I don't necessarily disagree with that Clubber... I think that there could have been better preparation for the 2007 run. But even still I think that we were in better position than we've put ourselves in for this run.

That being said, if it all falls into place, it could be a great season in CB...

[iowzdahchiefs]

Jun 4, 2009 19:05:49 GMT -4 brec7 said:

It's possible you're exactly right iowzdahchiefs... the Eagles see that the end is near for "being good every year" and want to end it with a bang. I just think that the timing is a bit unusal, given that the team was arguably better last year and there is a potential Cup bid 2 years later...

Trust me I do not think there are many Q fans sitting around looking at the rumors and not wondering what the hell is going on with these rumored deals going on in Cape Breton. I am sure the ones with connections are using them all up to find out wtf is going on with this. It really looks like they are seeing the well dry up and may be lost in this years draft and this is a way of countering those things. If they can pull it off then the eagles look like geniuses if it does not work out they can bail themselves out of it and save face a few different ways, the worst being hiding behind it was time to rebuild.

[Jack Bauer]

It just seems odd to me to speak about hosting the Mem Cup in 3 years then go out and try any young assets you have for 19yr olds who are NHL drafted.

I realize the potential is there for a good-great team this year, but how is that any different from the last 5? If you want to win 3 years down the road they this would be the time to start planning that, now hindering it by acquiring 1 year talents.

We managed to build a powerhouse in 04(on paper anyway) when most doubted it could be done...can we really ride this for a couple more years with 1 down year in between? It seems like we might find out.

[EagleFan2009]

I thought this over alot , and yea maybe trading Ellis would be dumb but I can see why Mario wants to go with a bang too. Although at the same time i see how hard it would be to build in one year if they get the mem cup.

Baa, i dont know, If Adam and Doyle come in, you have to be excited dont you? These two guys hav ethe potiental to put up 100pt seasons. And everyone knows that horyl and macneil and macdougall will fit in well with these guys.

All in all and with whatever happens the only thing i hope doesnt happen is, if we get one of 2, i either want both or none. either put all the eggs in the basket or put none in. Then lure Roy at xmas to go at the draft and take a run at it.

[ppinto123]

adam's price is not bad if he shows as a 20yo , little steep if he doesn't but he will fetch close to equal to what eagles would pay for him at christmas unless market is really saturated, for doyle pretty much a guaranteed 2 year service if eagles want to keep him and definitely could be an impact forward, it is pretty close to a steal in my opinion to pay ellis and holden but that again depend on the pick attached to taht as well, doyle would even fetch at least a 1st rounder for sure. looks like a good year for eagles if they acquire both; back up goalie wouldn't be too hard to pick up to replace holden

[Jack Bauer]

Jun 4, 2009 20:36:45 GMT -4 ppinto123 said:

adam's price is not bad if he shows as a 20yo , little steep if he does but he will fetch close to equal to what eagles would pay for him at christmas unless market is really saturated, for doyle pretty much a guaranteed 2 year service if eagles want to keep him and definitely could be an impact forward, it is pretty close to a steal in my opinion to pay ellis and holden but that again depend on the pick attached to taht as well, doyle would even fetch for sure looks like a good year for eagles if they acquire both back up goalie wouldn't be too hard to pick up to replace holden

It's pretty dangerous to assume they're going to play great if your only intent is moving them in January. There are too many variables which could see them both worth less and really screw up your plan.

And i'll also throw out there that in this type of draft they could be going off the board early and not worrying about a 1st if they can get their guy later on.

There's definitely a reason to be excited about the 09-10 season. Any type of negativity is geared towards the future and I don't think many really expected this type of action.

[canucklehead]

Great post ... Great read ... Thanks Brec well said.

[Captain Obvious]

Jun 4, 2009 20:36:45 GMT -4 ppinto123 said:

adam's price is not bad if he shows as a 20yo , little steep if he does but he will fetch close to equal to what eagles would pay for him at christmas unless market is really saturated, for doyle pretty much a guaranteed 2 year service if eagles want to keep him and definitely could be an impact forward, it is pretty close to a steal in my opinion to pay ellis and holden but that again depend on the pick attached to taht as well, doyle would even fetch at least a 1st rounder for sure. looks like a good year for eagles if they acquire both; back up goalie wouldn't be too hard to pick up to replace holden

Where his is drafted, you can't assume Adam will be back as a 20 year old. the only way he is is if he craps the bed this coming year...but that means you got hosed on the deal anyways.