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Post by Captain Obvious on Nov 7, 2017 8:12:56 GMT -4
So we have seen basically two teams, the one that started 7-1-2 and the one that went 4-6-0. logic would say that the "real Wildcats" are in the middle, basically a mid pack team that should be in the 6-9 range overall. I think part of the two contrasting records was strength of schedule, a lot more tough games and road games the last 10...the fact that they can't sneak up on teams, could be another factor.
The offense has lit up some weaker defensive teams, but recently it's dried up a bit...a drop of 0.8 goals per game. Goals against has seen a bigger drop, by 1.3 GA per game.
1st 10 games...41 GF 32 GA
Last 10 games...33 GF 45 GA
I think Grametbauer has not been as good, but also the defense has been exposed a bit more against better teams. too many high quality scoring chances.
There are 14 games before the trade period, I will predict a 6-7-1 record, going to 17-14-3 record overall, as there are quite a few tough games in there, including a trip to BBA, VD and RN.
As I stated last week, coming back to earth is not bad news, just means they are more likely to follow the rebuilding plan and move 2-3 veterans at midseason to be better in a couple years.
Individual players, the biggest surprises and disappointments:
+Cyr
+McKenna
+Pelletier
+Seitz
-Waite(was struggling before his injury)
-Lecoultre(mild)
-MacRae
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Post by jimmy on Nov 7, 2017 9:57:44 GMT -4
So we have seen basically two teams, the one that started 7-1-2 and the one that went 4-6-0. logic would say that the "real Wildcats" are in the middle, basically a mid pack team that should be in the 6-9 range overall. I think part of the two contrasting records was strength of schedule, a lot more tough games and road games the last 10...the fact that they can't sneak up on teams, could be another factor. The offense has lit up some weaker defensive teams, but recently it's dried up a bit...a drop of 0.8 goals per game. Goals against has seen a bigger drop, by 1.3 GA per game. 1st 10 games...41 GF 32 GA Last 10 games...33 GF 45 GA I think Grametbauer has not been as good, but also the defense has been exposed a bit more against better teams. too many high quality scoring chances. There are 14 games before the trade period, I will predict a 6-7-1 record, going to 17-14-3 record overall, as there are quite a few tough games in there, including a trip to BBA, VD and RN. As I stated last week, coming back to earth is not bad news, just means they are more likely to follow the rebuilding plan and move 2-3 veterans at midseason to be better in a couple years. Individual players, the biggest surprises and disappointments: +Cyr +McKenna +Pelletier +Seitz -Waite(was struggling before his injury) -Lecoultre(mild) -MacRae Good post. I am with you on Cyr, McKenna, Pelletier and Seitz exceeding expectations. You could add Welsh to that - while he was expected to be a solid OA, not sure many would have predicted him to be the highest scoring d-man in the league at the 20 game mark. Not sure I would really qualify anyone as disappointing. Waite's sample size is far too small to draw any conclusions from, the unfortunate thing with his injury (which was confirmed in today's T&T to be in the same shoulder he had surgically repaired last spring, and may or may not require surgery again in the future) is that it leaves us with a tough call to make on his future come the trade period.As for MacRae, hard to really consider a 19 y/o FA as any kind of disappointment - we brought in several, obviously some will carve out roles and others will not ... Looking at the upcoming trade period, assuming we are willing to sell, here is my analysis of what we may have to move ... Welsh: Probably our biggest chip and most likely to move as he won't be back next year. For value, looking for some comparables, Carl Neill fetched 2 2nds a 3rd and an 8th last year - Neill was probably a bit better offensively, Welsh is probably a bit better defensively ... obviously the value on OAs fluctuates a bit more year to year based on supply and demand. Dunda: Nice player for us, but 20 year old role players do not tend to be in demand from contenders. Unlikely to move IMO. Grametbauer: Tough decision here IMO due to Waite not being proven and with the spectre of a chronic injury looming. That said, if the market were to develop such that we were offered a big return, we could go with Waite for the second half, and re-assess in the offseason ... we could potentially fit in an OA goalie for next year, we may be able to cash in on dealing a 19 y/o Grametbauer to a contender, then picking up a comparable 20 year old at the draft for a fraction of what we get moving our 19 y/o at Xmas. Like OAs, the market for goalies can fluctuate wildly from one year to the next. Tessier: Could be an impact OA next year ... but 19 year old forwards that are point per game tend to be in demand at Xmas time. Comparables (19 y/o's likely to play as OAs) moved last year would be Barre-Boulet (traded for a 1st, 2nd, 4th, 16 y/o drafted in 2nd round, plus a spare part), who is likely a bit better, and Askew (traded for 2 2nds and a spare part), who is likely not quite as good ... Looking to 2018/19, we project to return McKenna, Cyr, Pelletier, MacDonald and Seitz up front, with the ability to add a euro to our top 6 ... this scoring depth may tip the scales in cashing in on Tessier at Xmas if the offer is right. Wieringa, Pataki: Useful 19 year old role players, probably not OAs for us next year. May be able to get a Lane Cormier type return for Pataki (2nd and a younger role player), and maybe a Kody Gagnon type return for Wieringa (managed to upgrade a 5th to a 3rd) ... |
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Post by Captain Obvious on Nov 7, 2017 10:14:25 GMT -4
So we have seen basically two teams, the one that started 7-1-2 and the one that went 4-6-0. logic would say that the "real Wildcats" are in the middle, basically a mid pack team that should be in the 6-9 range overall. I think part of the two contrasting records was strength of schedule, a lot more tough games and road games the last 10...the fact that they can't sneak up on teams, could be another factor. The offense has lit up some weaker defensive teams, but recently it's dried up a bit...a drop of 0.8 goals per game. Goals against has seen a bigger drop, by 1.3 GA per game. 1st 10 games...41 GF 32 GA Last 10 games...33 GF 45 GA I think Grametbauer has not been as good, but also the defense has been exposed a bit more against better teams. too many high quality scoring chances. There are 14 games before the trade period, I will predict a 6-7-1 record, going to 17-14-3 record overall, as there are quite a few tough games in there, including a trip to BBA, VD and RN. As I stated last week, coming back to earth is not bad news, just means they are more likely to follow the rebuilding plan and move 2-3 veterans at midseason to be better in a couple years. Individual players, the biggest surprises and disappointments: +Cyr +McKenna +Pelletier +Seitz -Waite(was struggling before his injury) -Lecoultre(mild) -MacRae Good post. I am with you on Cyr, McKenna, Pelletier and Seitz exceeding expectations. You could add Welsh to that - while he was expected to be a solid OA, not sure many would have predicted him to be the highest scoring d-man in the league at the 20 game mark. Not sure I would really qualify anyone as disappointing. Waite's sample size is far too small to draw any conclusions from, the unfortunate thing with his injury (which was confirmed in today's T&T to be in the same shoulder he had surgically repaired last spring, and may or may not require surgery again in the future) is that it leaves us with a tough call to make on his future come the trade period.As for MacRae, hard to really consider a 19 y/o FA as any kind of disappointment - we brought in several, obviously some will carve out roles and others will not ... Looking at the upcoming trade period, assuming we are willing to sell, here is my analysis of what we may have to move ... Welsh: Probably our biggest chip and most likely to move as he won't be back next year. For value, looking for some comparables, Carl Neill fetched 2 2nds a 3rd and an 8th last year - Neill was probably a bit better offensively, Welsh is probably a bit better defensively ... obviously the value on OAs fluctuates a bit more year to year based on supply and demand. Dunda: Nice player for us, but 20 year old role players do not tend to be in demand from contenders. Unlikely to move IMO. Grametbauer: Tough decision here IMO due to Waite not being proven and with the spectre of a chronic injury looming. That said, if the market were to develop such that we were offered a big return, we could go with Waite for the second half, and re-assess in the offseason ... we could potentially fit in an OA goalie for next year, we may be able to cash in on dealing a 19 y/o Grametbauer to a contender, then picking up a comparable 20 year old at the draft for a fraction of what we get moving our 19 y/o at Xmas. Like OAs, the market for goalies can fluctuate wildly from one year to the next. Tessier: Could be an impact OA next year ... but 19 year old forwards that are point per game tend to be in demand at Xmas time. Comparables (19 y/o's likely to play as OAs) moved last year would be Barre-Boulet (traded for a 1st, 2nd, 4th, 16 y/o drafted in 2nd round, plus a spare part), who is likely a bit better, and Askew (traded for 2 2nds and a spare part), who is likely not quite as good ... Looking to 2018/19, we project to return McKenna, Cyr, Pelletier, MacDonald and Seitz up front, with the ability to add a euro to our top 6 ... this scoring depth may tip the scales in cashing in on Tessier at Xmas if the offer is right. Wieringa, Pataki: Useful 19 year old role players, probably not OAs for us next year. May be able to get a Lane Cormier type return for Pataki (2nd and a younger role player), and maybe a Kody Gagnon type return for Wieringa (managed to upgrade a 5th to a 3rd) ... I had pretty high expectations of Welsh, in large part due to being out from behind the large shadow of Girard and Fitzgerald in terms of minutes and PP time. He had 44pts in 67 games last year behind those guys. |
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Post by SteveUL on Nov 7, 2017 10:22:31 GMT -4
Good post. I am with you on Cyr, McKenna, Pelletier and Seitz exceeding expectations. You could add Welsh to that - while he was expected to be a solid OA, not sure many would have predicted him to be the highest scoring d-man in the league at the 20 game mark. Not sure I would really qualify anyone as disappointing. Waite's sample size is far too small to draw any conclusions from, the unfortunate thing with his injury (which was confirmed in today's T&T to be in the same shoulder he had surgically repaired last spring, and may or may not require surgery again in the future) is that it leaves us with a tough call to make on his future come the trade period.As for MacRae, hard to really consider a 19 y/o FA as any kind of disappointment - we brought in several, obviously some will carve out roles and others will not ... Looking at the upcoming trade period, assuming we are willing to sell, here is my analysis of what we may have to move ... Welsh: Probably our biggest chip and most likely to move as he won't be back next year. For value, looking for some comparables, Carl Neill fetched 2 2nds a 3rd and an 8th last year - Neill was probably a bit better offensively, Welsh is probably a bit better defensively ... obviously the value on OAs fluctuates a bit more year to year based on supply and demand. Dunda: Nice player for us, but 20 year old role players do not tend to be in demand from contenders. Unlikely to move IMO. Grametbauer: Tough decision here IMO due to Waite not being proven and with the spectre of a chronic injury looming. That said, if the market were to develop such that we were offered a big return, we could go with Waite for the second half, and re-assess in the offseason ... we could potentially fit in an OA goalie for next year, we may be able to cash in on dealing a 19 y/o Grametbauer to a contender, then picking up a comparable 20 year old at the draft for a fraction of what we get moving our 19 y/o at Xmas. Like OAs, the market for goalies can fluctuate wildly from one year to the next. Tessier: Could be an impact OA next year ... but 19 year old forwards that are point per game tend to be in demand at Xmas time. Comparables (19 y/o's likely to play as OAs) moved last year would be Barre-Boulet (traded for a 1st, 2nd, 4th, 16 y/o drafted in 2nd round, plus a spare part), who is likely a bit better, and Askew (traded for 2 2nds and a spare part), who is likely not quite as good ... Looking to 2018/19, we project to return McKenna, Cyr, Pelletier, MacDonald and Seitz up front, with the ability to add a euro to our top 6 ... this scoring depth may tip the scales in cashing in on Tessier at Xmas if the offer is right. Wieringa, Pataki: Useful 19 year old role players, probably not OAs for us next year. May be able to get a Lane Cormier type return for Pataki (2nd and a younger role player), and maybe a Kody Gagnon type return for Wieringa (managed to upgrade a 5th to a 3rd) ... I had pretty high expectations of Welsh, in large part due to being out from behind the large shadow of Girard and Fitzgerald in terms of minutes and PP time. He had 44pts in 67 games last year behind those guys. I think any Dman's offensive abilities are directly affected by the team they play on. We are the highest scoring team in the Q to date (that's a surprise). Welsh has 2 goals and 18 assists and leads all Dmen in points. If our forward group wasn't scoring like they are then Welsh's point totals would be way down. Is that from Welsh being a solid offensive Dman ... or from our forward group being able to score ? |
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Post by Captain Obvious on Nov 7, 2017 10:28:03 GMT -4
I had pretty high expectations of Welsh, in large part due to being out from behind the large shadow of Girard and Fitzgerald in terms of minutes and PP time. He had 44pts in 67 games last year behind those guys. I think any Dman's offensive abilities are directly affected by the team they play on. We are the highest scoring team in the Q to date (that's a surprise). Welsh has 2 goals and 18 assists and leads all Dmen in points. If our forward group wasn't scoring like they are then Welsh's point totals would be way down. Is that from Welsh being a solid offensive Dman ... or from our forward group being able to score ? It goes the other way as well. I think Welsh has had a big impact on the team scoring a lot of goals. He is excellent at moving the puck as well as jumping into the rush. His skills and mobility have no doubt played a part in those guys up front having break out years. The issue for the Cats is, once he is gone(midseason or next year), he leaves a pretty big hole to fill. Lecoultre tries hard, but his skills are not at Welsh's level. Bellamy is 16 and has shown upside, but still a work in progress. Defense is still a huge area of need long term, especially with Jacques not showing then being included in the MacDonald deal. |
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Post by jimmy on Nov 7, 2017 10:38:41 GMT -4
I think any Dman's offensive abilities are directly affected by the team they play on. We are the highest scoring team in the Q to date (that's a surprise). Welsh has 2 goals and 18 assists and leads all Dmen in points. If our forward group wasn't scoring like they are then Welsh's point totals would be way down. Is that from Welsh being a solid offensive Dman ... or from our forward group being able to score ? It goes the other way as well. I think Welsh has had a big impact on the team scoring a lot of goals. He is excellent at moving the puck as well as jumping into the rush. His skills and mobility have no doubt played a part in those guys up front having break out years. The issue for the Cats is, once he is gone(midseason or next year), he leaves a pretty big hole to fill. Lecoultre tries hard, but his skills are not at Welsh's level. Bellamy is 16 and has shown upside, but still a work in progress. Defense is still a huge area of need long term, especially with Jacques not showing then being included in the MacDonald deal. Agreed on the D being the area needing the most work long term. If we move some vets at Xmas, I would like to see them line up someone as futures who projects as an impact OA d-man for next year. |
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Post by Captain Obvious on Nov 7, 2017 10:57:23 GMT -4
It goes the other way as well. I think Welsh has had a big impact on the team scoring a lot of goals. He is excellent at moving the puck as well as jumping into the rush. His skills and mobility have no doubt played a part in those guys up front having break out years. The issue for the Cats is, once he is gone(midseason or next year), he leaves a pretty big hole to fill. Lecoultre tries hard, but his skills are not at Welsh's level. Bellamy is 16 and has shown upside, but still a work in progress. Defense is still a huge area of need long term, especially with Jacques not showing then being included in the MacDonald deal. Agreed on the D being the area needing the most work long term. If we move some vets at Xmas, I would like to see them line up someone as futures who projects as an impact OA d-man for next year. One thing that would help is Khovanov showing up. would add another impact young forward to build around...but I won't hold my breath... |
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Post by jimmy on Nov 7, 2017 11:01:05 GMT -4
Agreed on the D being the area needing the most work long term. If we move some vets at Xmas, I would like to see them line up someone as futures who projects as an impact OA d-man for next year. One thing that would help is Khovanov showing up. would add another impact young forward to build around...but I won't hold my breath... I expect we will have an impact euro forward in the lineup next year ... if Khovanov doesn't show, we will draft a replacement next June. |
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Post by WildcatMapleLeafs on Nov 7, 2017 11:01:48 GMT -4
Agreed on the D being the area needing the most work long term. If we move some vets at Xmas, I would like to see them line up someone as futures who projects as an impact OA d-man for next year. One thing that would help is Khovanov showing up. would add another impact young forward to build around...but I won't hold my breath... If Khovanov reports , I'd be a lot more open to trading Tessier for a young defenceman. |
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Post by Captain Obvious on Nov 7, 2017 11:10:02 GMT -4
One thing that would help is Khovanov showing up. would add another impact young forward to build around...but I won't hold my breath... I expect we will have an impact euro forward in the lineup next year ... if Khovanov doesn't show, we will draft a replacement next June. Ideally Khovanov shows, then you draft another(preferably a young d-man) and flip Lecoultre for a nice pick at the draft. |
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Post by Captain Obvious on Nov 7, 2017 11:11:53 GMT -4
One thing that would help is Khovanov showing up. would add another impact young forward to build around...but I won't hold my breath... If Khovanov reports , I'd be a lot more open to trading Tessier for a young defenceman. I think any good rebuilding plan involves moving Tessier and Welsh plus possibly Grametbauer. I think in order to get to a powerhouse(contend for a Memorial Cup) level, they need to add 2-3 more young impact players. Mostly on D and possibly in nets. |
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Post by SteveUL on Nov 7, 2017 12:24:47 GMT -4
One thing that would help is Khovanov showing up. would add another impact young forward to build around...but I won't hold my breath... I expect we will have an impact euro forward in the lineup next year ... if Khovanov doesn't show, we will draft a replacement next June. Has Shannon ever drafted an impact Euro in Moncton ? Barbashev and Jaskin were on Flynn's watch. Weiderer was good but not a dynamic player like an Ehlers or Hischier or Svechnikov. Le Coultre isn't an impact player ... Tkachev could have been but he had attitude issues ... then Shannon had a few busts that he drafted that I can't even remember their names. I'm not sure that I would count on Shannon to get it right at the import draft. |
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Post by Captain Obvious on Nov 7, 2017 12:27:31 GMT -4
I expect we will have an impact euro forward in the lineup next year ... if Khovanov doesn't show, we will draft a replacement next June. Has Shannon ever drafted an impact Euro in Moncton ? Barbashev and Jaskin were on Flynn's watch. Weiderer was good but not a dynamic player like an Ehlers or Hischier or Svechnikov. Le Coultre isn't an impact player ... Tkachev could have been but he had attitude issues ... then Shannon had a few busts that he drafted that I can't even remember their names. I'm not sure that I would count on Shannon to get it right at the import draft. Funny, if I had posted that you'd call me a "hater". |
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Post by Captain Obvious on Nov 7, 2017 14:17:31 GMT -4
One reason I hope they stick to the rebuild for at least another year, from the 2016 draft, right now the only player they have to show for it is Hudson. makes it hard to be strong every year when you whiff so badly on drafts.
all we have to do is look at RN and why they are successful 3-4 years in a row...
2012
Perron
Donaghey
Nantel
Caron
2013
Lauzon
Fortin
Myers
Waked
Beaudin
Greer
2014
Neveu
Z.Lauzon
Abbandonato
Harvey
Boucher
They did that without a boatload a pick, they had a few extras sprinkled in but no 1st in 2013.
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Post by SteveUL on Nov 7, 2017 14:39:49 GMT -4
Has Shannon ever drafted an impact Euro in Moncton ? Barbashev and Jaskin were on Flynn's watch. Weiderer was good but not a dynamic player like an Ehlers or Hischier or Svechnikov. Le Coultre isn't an impact player ... Tkachev could have been but he had attitude issues ... then Shannon had a few busts that he drafted that I can't even remember their names. I'm not sure that I would count on Shannon to get it right at the import draft. Funny, if I had posted that you'd call me a "hater". No ... I post both sides of the equation. You only post hate. If Shannon makes a bonehead move I am not afraid to say it. Perhaps you don't recall that I stopped going to games because I was tired of Shannon's poor results. I have no problem saying when Shannon has done poorly and when he does good. You are only able to speak of his poor decisions. |
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