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Post by yoyomamajoe on Feb 21, 2020 10:10:04 GMT -4
The last 12 games are going to be very interesting. There are only 4 points separating the 9th and 15th position so it can go either way.
Right now Baie-Comeau is on a slide and is back in lottery position which is nice cause we hold their first round pick this year.
It is even not impossible to catch the Islanders, with three games coming up against them. Unlikely, but not impossible.
Interesting times to come.
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Post by Slap Shooter on Feb 21, 2020 10:32:03 GMT -4
We have 4 against CB,3 against the Islanders, and 1 against Moncton.
These 8 games will all be tough to get points in. Although if they could ever score more than 1 or 2 goals on Welsh then the Islanders are beatable.
Then we have one each against RN, Hali, Drum, AB. All are winnable. It would be nice if we could go 7 - 5 down the stretch but we will more likely go 5 - 7 or maybe 6 and 6.
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Post by pinkbeaver on Feb 21, 2020 11:08:01 GMT -4
The last 12 games are going to be very interesting. There are only 4 points separating the 9th and 15th position so it can go either way. Right now Baie-Comeau is on a slide and is back in lottery position which is nice cause we hold their first round pick this year. It is even not impossible to catch the Islanders, with three games coming up against them. Unlikely, but not impossible. Interesting times to come. Could you imagine if BC finishes 4th last, and SJ's lottery ball gets pulled for 1st overall pick again. People around the league would be going crazy with outrage and conspiracy theories. |
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Post by j3e4 on Feb 21, 2020 11:55:16 GMT -4
The last 12 games are going to be very interesting. There are only 4 points separating the 9th and 15th position so it can go either way. Right now Baie-Comeau is on a slide and is back in lottery position which is nice cause we hold their first round pick this year. It is even not impossible to catch the Islanders, with three games coming up against them. Unlikely, but not impossible. Interesting times to come. Could you imagine if BC finishes 4th last, and SJ's lottery ball gets pulled for 1st overall pick again. People around the league would be going crazy with outrage and conspiracy theories. I'm not sure I would blame them. As a Sea Dogs fan, I might even start to wonder. Hopefully we get to find out.  |
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Post by yoyomamajoe on Feb 21, 2020 14:55:52 GMT -4
The last 12 games are going to be very interesting. There are only 4 points separating the 9th and 15th position so it can go either way. Right now Baie-Comeau is on a slide and is back in lottery position which is nice cause we hold their first round pick this year. It is even not impossible to catch the Islanders, with three games coming up against them. Unlikely, but not impossible. Interesting times to come. Could you imagine if BC finishes 4th last, and SJ's lottery ball gets pulled for 1st overall pick again. People around the league would be going crazy with outrage and conspiracy theories. Can you imagine the outrage from Gatineau with Bat, Hal and their own 1st pick as lottery picks? What is that 9, 6 and 3 balls against 2 or 1? |
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Post by j3e4 on Feb 22, 2020 8:53:56 GMT -4
I can't say I'm too concerned about where we finish in the overall standings. Realistically, we're not going to play a team from the western conference in the playoffs and we don't have our 1st round pick. We'd pick higher in the Import Draft (if we decide to make use of it) and any other round in which we still have our own pick, but that doesn't mean as much as the first round pick.
I think it's pretty likely we stay in 6th in the east which likely means Rimouski or Cape Breton in the first round. Either way, we'd do well not to get swept. Going to 6 games in the first round for the first time ever would be fantastic but I don't consider it very likely.
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Post by j3e4 on Feb 26, 2020 22:54:19 GMT -4
I can't say I'm too concerned about where we finish in the overall standings. Realistically, we're not going to play a team from the western conference in the playoffs and we don't have our 1st round pick. We'd pick higher in the Import Draft (if we decide to make use of it) and any other round in which we still have our own pick, but that doesn't mean as much as the first round pick. I think it's pretty likely we stay in 6th in the east which likely means Rimouski or Cape Breton in the first round. Either way, we'd do well not to get swept. Going to 6 games in the first round for the first time ever would be fantastic but I don't consider it very likely. According to an article in the TJ today, everything I said here is completely wrong. It says the Sea Dogs can avoid playing the top 5 teams (4 of which are in our conference) if they finish 11th or better in the overall standings. Has the Q gone back to the overall standings playoff format? If so, that would be great for us this season but then what would be the significance of the 2 conferences? |
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Post by SteveUL on Feb 27, 2020 9:28:18 GMT -4
I can't say I'm too concerned about where we finish in the overall standings. Realistically, we're not going to play a team from the western conference in the playoffs and we don't have our 1st round pick. We'd pick higher in the Import Draft (if we decide to make use of it) and any other round in which we still have our own pick, but that doesn't mean as much as the first round pick. I think it's pretty likely we stay in 6th in the east which likely means Rimouski or Cape Breton in the first round. Either way, we'd do well not to get swept. Going to 6 games in the first round for the first time ever would be fantastic but I don't consider it very likely. According to an article in the TJ today, everything I said here is completely wrong. It says the Sea Dogs can avoid playing the top 5 teams (4 of which are in our conference) if they finish 11th or better in the overall standings. Has the Q gone back to the overall standings playoff format? If so, that would be great for us this season but then what would be the significance of the 2 conferences? No, that would be wrong. Its 1st vs 8th in each conference in Rd 1. Round 2 also stays within the conference. Round 3 sees the four remaining teams re-seeded based on the standings, and 1 vs 4 with that new seeding. Its not a cross-over in Rd 3 but that could happen. So SJ sits in 6th today in the conference and you'll line up against 3rd in the conference. I predict you'll play CB in Rd 1. CB is currently just behind Rimouski in the standings, one point back, but they have two games at hand over Rim. Edit: The TJ article on last night's game seems to have the playoff format correct. Maybe they changed the article ? |
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Post by j3e4 on Feb 27, 2020 10:02:58 GMT -4
According to an article in the TJ today, everything I said here is completely wrong. It says the Sea Dogs can avoid playing the top 5 teams (4 of which are in our conference) if they finish 11th or better in the overall standings. Has the Q gone back to the overall standings playoff format? If so, that would be great for us this season but then what would be the significance of the 2 conferences? No, that would be wrong. Its 1st vs 8th in each conference in Rd 1. Round 2 also stays within the conference. Round 3 sees the four remaining teams re-seeded based on the standings, and 1 vs 4 with that new seeding. Its not a cross-over in Rd 3 but that could happen. So SJ sits in 6th today in the conference and you'll line up against 3rd in the conference. I predict you'll play CB in Rd 1. CB is currently just behind Rimouski in the standings, one point back, but they have two games at hand over Rim. Edit: The TJ article on last night's game seems to have the playoff format correct. Maybe they changed the article ? Thanks for the clarification. The article I read appeared in yesterday's paper before last night's game. Someone must have brought the mistake to their attention within those 24 hours or so. |
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Post by yoyomamajoe on Mar 8, 2020 9:29:51 GMT -4
With only four more games to go there is a real possibility that the Dogs won't see a win anymore. Bat and Mon away and then two games against the Eagles. Their best chance is next game against Bathurst, but the way the Dogs have been playing lately and the way the Titan have been playing lately I am not confident they can beat the Titan.
Moncton is going to destroy the boys, again, and Cape Breton has Mandolese back so don't expect a repeat of the last game they played each other.
Very poor showing of the boys lately. Really hope they prove me wrong.
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Post by yoyomamajoe on Mar 17, 2020 8:28:52 GMT -4
So, with other leagues calling an end to the season, what will be the implications? Are they leaving the standing as is or will they adjust the standings by adjusting to the same amount of games played?
Some teams have 63 games played, some have 64 games played.
option 1: standing is as is
option 2: season is finalised after 64 games with game 64 based on win percentage, teams with >0.500 will get 1 point if they haven't played game 64, teams with <0.500 get a loss
option 3: season is finalised after 63 games played, so points earned in game 64 are removed
What does this mean for the Sea Dogs?
option 1: same result as option 2
option 2: Nothing noticeably changes for the Dogs. They remain in 11th spot, BC remains in 15th spot and have double the chance for first pick overall.
Option 3: The Sea Dogs will end with the same points and same win percentage as Victoriaville, but with a better ROW, so will rise to 10th spot. No harm done there as we don't hold our own 1st rd pick. More importantly, Baie Comeau will jump Quebec in the standing to the last lottery position. This halfs our chance for first pick overall (1 entry instead of 2)
So the only ones benefitting from option 3 will be Quebec and I'm sure we can expect Roy to make a push for that.
What will be our chances of option 1 or 2?
Or is there another possible scenario?
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Post by SteveUL on Mar 17, 2020 9:20:40 GMT -4
So, with other leagues calling an end to the season, what will be the implications? Are they leaving the standing as is or will they adjust the standings by adjusting to the same amount of games played? Some teams have 63 games played, some have 64 games played. option 1: standing is as is option 2: season is finalised after 64 games with game 64 based on win percentage, teams with >0.500 will get 1 point if they haven't played game 64, teams with <0.500 get a loss option 3: season is finalised after 63 games played, so points earned in game 64 are removed What does this mean for the Sea Dogs? option 1: same result as option 2 option 2: Nothing noticeably changes for the Dogs. They remain in 11th spot, BC remains in 15th spot and have double the chance for first pick overall. Option 3: The Sea Dogs will end with the same points and same win percentage as Victoriaville, but with a better ROW, so will rise to 10th spot. No harm done there as we don't hold our own 1st rd pick. More importantly, Baie Comeau will jump Quebec in the standing to the last lottery position. This halfs our chance for first pick overall (1 entry instead of 2) So the only ones benefiting from option 3 will be Quebec and I'm sure we can expect Roy to make a push for that. What will be our chances of option 1 or 2? Or is there another possible scenario? I think the fairest way is to go by W%. If any tiebreakers have to be applied, they'd have to compare the two teams based on equal number of games played, and so that probably means drop game 64 for one team if necessary. But that game 64 for one team might still count for a game 63 for another team, which seems kind of weird that it counts for one but not the other. The draft becomes a big question, but would be handled similarly. Clearly Bathurst's pick is seeded #1 (before the lottery), and the five teams (their pick) that would be in the lottery are Bathurst, Halifax, Gatineau, Baie Comeau and Quebec (or whomever owns those picks). Val D'or is also tied with BC and Que at 59 pts, but VD have a higher W% and higher ROW, so they'd be on the outside of the lottery with their own pick. If you go by W% then there is only on tie (BC and Que) and Que gets the higher seed by the tie breakers. Of course playoffs may never happen and I think they are more likely to be cancelled than go ahead. But the longer we go without starting the playoffs, I could see them deciding to hold a tournament to declare a winner. Just thinking out loud, but there are clearly five contenders with a lot at stake and they would be in the tournament. Maybe we need 8 teams and so Drum, Char and BBA are also added ... or four from each conference but that leaves Char out and lesser teams in. Divide them up in two conferences by W%, and have each team play a home and home with each team in their conference; so 6 round robin games total for each team. Top two on each side play a best of 3 crossover to leave two teams. Have those two teams play a best of five or seven if time allows, for the Presidents Cup. Winner goes to the Memorial Cup. You could shorten the tournament if you had to. Just an idea ... I know many teams would be upset not getting a spot in the tournament, but there are costs involved in bringing your players back in, and some teams would just be better off calling it a year from this point. |
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Post by seadogs10 on Mar 17, 2020 15:17:27 GMT -4
Rest of the regular season has been cancelled. Final standings from today are final. Sea Dogs have 4th best odds of #1 pick in the lottery, albeit only 9.5% odds. Gatineau has 86% chance of top pick lol.
Update: Looks like there may be no lottery at all, which is bullshit. Gatineau gets picks 1,2 and 3.
Update #2: Now they are saying the press release had an error and there will in fact be a lottery.
#BecauseitstheQ
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Post by ysj28 on Mar 17, 2020 15:23:43 GMT -4
There will be a lottery as normal.
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Post by ysj28 on Mar 17, 2020 15:29:44 GMT -4
Gatienau will have 18 balls in the lotto
Saint John 2
Quebec 1
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