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Post by moosefan1994 on Sept 5, 2019 6:24:29 GMT -4
I think they slightly overachieved last year and are too reliant on Price, if he struggles or the young guys down progress/struggle, they’re in a not so great spot. Now we could say this about a lot of teams, so I don’t think it’s a reason to be concerned but I think they’ll take a step backwards, just because I think they overachieved and others teams got better/under performed last year. Price had a pretty mediocre 1st half last year, maybe in part due to Weber missing a lot of time. He only got going in January. There are teams in the East who are very likely to drop, like NYI(who lost their All star goalie) and Carolina(who had everything go their way). For the Habs, having Weber healthy all year instead of coming off no off season should make a big difference. Kinkaid should be a huge upgrade on what Niemi was last year. The Habs will have to worry about their own division first, Tampa , Boston and Toronto are obviously the top 3 and Florida and Buffalo are candidates to move forward this season just as much as the Habs are. Even if Carolina’s youngsters have a setback there are plenty of teams in the Metropolitan division that can easily take a wildcard spot away from the Habs. The Habs are also on the wrong side of their good season, bad season pattern that they’ll need to break this year, even their “good” one last year resulted in missing the playoffs.
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Post by jimmy on Sept 5, 2019 7:10:52 GMT -4
Heard a rumour that the Jets are actively negotiating with three eastern conference teams on a potential Laine trade - wonder if the Habs are one of them?
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Post by Captain Obvious on Sept 5, 2019 7:58:13 GMT -4
Price had a pretty mediocre 1st half last year, maybe in part due to Weber missing a lot of time. He only got going in January. There are teams in the East who are very likely to drop, like NYI(who lost their All star goalie) and Carolina(who had everything go their way). For the Habs, having Weber healthy all year instead of coming off no off season should make a big difference. Kinkaid should be a huge upgrade on what Niemi was last year. The Habs will have to worry about their own division first, Tampa , Boston and Toronto are obviously the top 3 and Florida and Buffalo are candidates to move forward this season just as much as the Habs are. Even if Carolina’s youngsters have a setback there are plenty of teams in the Metropolitan division that can easily take a wildcard spot away from the Habs. The Habs are also on the wrong side of their good season, bad season pattern that they’ll need to break this year, even their “good” one last year resulted in missing the playoffs. I think Carolina, Columbus and NYI are teams that will drop this year. NYI overachieved plus they lost Lehner who was huge for them and replaced him with Varlamov who hasn’t done much in 3-4 years. Carolina is shaky in nets plus losing Williams will hurt more than his stats, he was a key leader for them and scored a ton of clutch goals. Columbus lost 2 of their 3 best players plus a bunch of others like Duchene Dzingel etc. I think we will see at least 4 maybe 5 teams making it from the Atlantic.
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Post by moosefan1994 on Sept 5, 2019 8:35:56 GMT -4
The Habs will have to worry about their own division first, Tampa , Boston and Toronto are obviously the top 3 and Florida and Buffalo are candidates to move forward this season just as much as the Habs are. Even if Carolina’s youngsters have a setback there are plenty of teams in the Metropolitan division that can easily take a wildcard spot away from the Habs. The Habs are also on the wrong side of their good season, bad season pattern that they’ll need to break this year, even their “good” one last year resulted in missing the playoffs. I think Carolina, Columbus and NYI are teams that will drop this year. NYI overachieved plus they lost Lehner who was huge for them and replaced him with Varlamov who hasn’t done much in 3-4 years. Carolina is shaky in nets plus losing Williams will hurt more than his stats, he was a key leader for them and scored a ton of clutch goals. Columbus lost 2 of their 3 best players plus a bunch of others like Duchene Dzingel etc. I think we will see at least 4 maybe 5 teams making it from the Atlantic. And if all those teams you listed do take a step back then teams like New Jersey, Philadelphia, maybe even the Rangers will pick up extra points against those teams more than the Habs do as they play them more than the Habs do.
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Post by Judas In My Mind on Sept 5, 2019 8:47:24 GMT -4
Unfortunately for you that looks like a mid-80's point team to me. I've read all your reasons as to why you can be optimistic that they can maintain their total from last year, especially with hopefully a healthy Webber all year long, but I disagree. I think your Habs take a step backward as things stand right now. That could change if they add a few player upgrades though. Why would they take a step backwards? They are a pretty young team with others on the way. Like I said I understand all the reasons why one would think or assume they will match last year's total or possibly better it but.... Its like a gut feeling or whatever. I look at that lineup and unless Price plays Vezina winning calibre this year, I don't see them making the playoffs or reaching last year's points. I dont know if its thinking the young guys will struggle, or established guys like Price, Webber, Gallagher, etc will suffer injuries. That roster just doesnt sit right with me as being a very good team.
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Post by bois on Sept 5, 2019 8:52:05 GMT -4
alot of Habs had career years last year...... expecting them all to match that or exceed that is a stretch (Domi, Tatar, Petry)
should be in a battle for a wildcard spot but certainly would not be a favorite to get one based on current roster IMO
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Post by Jack Bauer on Sept 5, 2019 9:00:25 GMT -4
alot of Habs had career years last year...... expecting them all to match that or exceed that is a stretch (Domi, Tatar, Petry) should be in a battle for a wildcard spot but certainly would not be a favorite to get one based on current roster IMO Agreed. Could as easily be a 98 point team that just gets in as they could be a 90 point team that finishes in 10th in the conference. There's a handful of teams with little to separate them. But you never know how a Philly or NYR will play. Or if a Buffalo will take a big leap. As it is Montreal is clearly behind 4 teams in the Atlantic. Only 5 at the most can get in. I think they end up as a 90-92 point team on the outside. Their division is too deep.
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Post by Captain Obvious on Sept 5, 2019 9:48:44 GMT -4
I think Carolina, Columbus and NYI are teams that will drop this year. NYI overachieved plus they lost Lehner who was huge for them and replaced him with Varlamov who hasn’t done much in 3-4 years. Carolina is shaky in nets plus losing Williams will hurt more than his stats, he was a key leader for them and scored a ton of clutch goals. Columbus lost 2 of their 3 best players plus a bunch of others like Duchene Dzingel etc. I think we will see at least 4 maybe 5 teams making it from the Atlantic. And if all those teams you listed do take a step back then teams like New Jersey, Philadelphia, maybe even the Rangers will pick up extra points against those teams more than the Habs do as they play them more than the Habs do. I don't see your point, none of those 3 should be playoff teams. The Atlantic will beat up on Detroit and especially Ottawa who took a big step back.
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Post by Captain Obvious on Sept 5, 2019 9:58:37 GMT -4
alot of Habs had career years last year...... expecting them all to match that or exceed that is a stretch (Domi, Tatar, Petry) should be in a battle for a wildcard spot but certainly would not be a favorite to get one based on current roster IMO Petry had a career year in part due to extra PP time with Weber out. Any production lost from him will likely be gained by weber who is usually around 15-20 G and 40+ points. Tatar had a 56 point year with Detroit he could drop a bit but even his off years he was pretty much a 45 point guy, so not like he put up 80 points. He had 8-10 more than his previous average. Domi I think was a case of a guy given a bigger role and entering his prime at 23. No reason Domi Can’t be a 65-75 point guy each year, the key for him is to keep shooting the puck. He gets in trouble when he tries to hang on too long for a perfect play. He has a strong and accurate shot, keep using it. I think guys like Drouin and JKK can take a big step forward. Drouin was lost the 2nd half and trying to do too much, NHL hockey, often less is more. He needs to pass quicker and not pass up good shooting opportunities. JKK had a good 1st half, even 2/3 of a season then seemed to run out of gas. He needs to show up bigger and stronger and take a step forward. Given his sheltered role he has a chance to put up pretty good numbers. In terms of offense for the Habs it all comes down to the PP, at ES they were among the best in the NHL, if they can get the PP to mid pack they would easily be a playoff team.
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Post by Captain Obvious on Sept 5, 2019 10:01:35 GMT -4
alot of Habs had career years last year...... expecting them all to match that or exceed that is a stretch (Domi, Tatar, Petry) should be in a battle for a wildcard spot but certainly would not be a favorite to get one based on current roster IMO Agreed. Could as easily be a 98 point team that just gets in as they could be a 90 point team that finishes in 10th in the conference. There's a handful of teams with little to separate them. But you never know how a Philly or NYR will play. Or if a Buffalo will take a big leap. As it is Montreal is clearly behind 4 teams in the Atlantic. Only 5 at the most can get in. I think they end up as a 90-92 point team on the outside. Their division is too deep. Tampa Boston and Toronto makes 3. None of the other teams are a lock for a playoff spot.
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Post by Jack Bauer on Sept 5, 2019 10:41:36 GMT -4
Agreed. Could as easily be a 98 point team that just gets in as they could be a 90 point team that finishes in 10th in the conference. There's a handful of teams with little to separate them. But you never know how a Philly or NYR will play. Or if a Buffalo will take a big leap. As it is Montreal is clearly behind 4 teams in the Atlantic. Only 5 at the most can get in. I think they end up as a 90-92 point team on the outside. Their division is too deep. Tampa Boston and Toronto makes 3. None of the other teams are a lock for a playoff spot. Florida is above Montreal. I'll even go as far to say that barring any weird injury situations they'll be a lock for the playoffs.
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Post by Captain Obvious on Sept 5, 2019 10:51:37 GMT -4
Tampa Boston and Toronto makes 3. None of the other teams are a lock for a playoff spot. Florida is above Montreal. I'll even go as far to say that barring any weird injury situations they'll be a lock for the playoffs. Florida was 10 points behind last year. adding Bobrovsky ~should~ help them, but I don't see are are head and shoulders above Montreal. Bob will see a lot more rubber in Florida than he did in CBJ if they keep playing the same way.
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Post by Jack Bauer on Sept 5, 2019 11:04:40 GMT -4
Florida is above Montreal. I'll even go as far to say that barring any weird injury situations they'll be a lock for the playoffs. Florida was 10 points behind last year. adding Bobrovsky ~should~ help them, but I don't see are are head and shoulders above Montreal. Bob will see a lot more rubber in Florida than he did in CBJ if they keep playing the same way. Adding a Vezina candidate over an over the hill Luongo and mediocre Reimer should help? Florida barely allowed more then 1 shot per game more then Columbus last year. Both in the top 10 in the league for shots allowed. Columbus was 7th and Florda 10th. We can understand why that won't be the same in Columbus. But why would it change so much for Florida with a better goalie and more experienced team? As usual you're talking without looking at any stats that might actually reinforce your position. All the stats do on that is show you're reaching with the 'a lot more rubber' comment.
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Post by Captain Obvious on Sept 5, 2019 11:11:41 GMT -4
Florida was 10 points behind last year. adding Bobrovsky ~should~ help them, but I don't see are are head and shoulders above Montreal. Bob will see a lot more rubber in Florida than he did in CBJ if they keep playing the same way. Adding a Vezina candidate over an over the hill Luongo and mediocre Reimer should help? Florida barely allowed more then 1 shot per game more then Columbus last year. Both in the top 10 in the league for shots allowed. Columbus was 7th and Florda 10th. We can understand why that won't be the same in Columbus. But why would it change so much for Florida with a better goalie and more experienced team? As usual you're talking without looking at any stats that might actually reinforce your position. All the stats do on that is show you're reaching with the 'a lot more rubber' comment. Columbus is a much more structured team defensively than Florida, at least from what I have seen. All shots are not necessarily equal. Florida did have not have good goaltending, no doubt, but they also have a group of forwards that isn't great defensively or at least they play a run and gun style and give up too many high quality chances.
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Post by Jack Bauer on Sept 5, 2019 11:17:50 GMT -4
Adding a Vezina candidate over an over the hill Luongo and mediocre Reimer should help? Florida barely allowed more then 1 shot per game more then Columbus last year. Both in the top 10 in the league for shots allowed. Columbus was 7th and Florda 10th. We can understand why that won't be the same in Columbus. But why would it change so much for Florida with a better goalie and more experienced team? As usual you're talking without looking at any stats that might actually reinforce your position. All the stats do on that is show you're reaching with the 'a lot more rubber' comment. Columbus is a much more structured team defensively than Florida, at least from what I have seen. All shots are not necessarily equal. Florida did have not have good goaltending, no doubt, but they also have a group of forwards that isn't great defensively or at least they play a run and gun style and give up too many high quality chances. Not having good goaltending means more shots against. They could actually improve on their already top 1/3 of the league standing in shots against due to the huge goaltending upgrade. There's nothing indicating otherwise based on who they lost and are bringing in. Using your own logic Florida shouldn't have been anywhere near Columbus in that statistic. If you were saying Columbus won't repeat it...nobody would disagree. But you keep shifting the goal posts with Florida now from Bob seeing more rubber to not all shots being equal and their forwards aren't great defensively. Did they have a top 10 shots against with awful goaltending and no good defensive forwards? Their D isn't that good. So something has to give. Either the forwards are way better then you're giving credit for...or the D is the most under-rated in the entire league.
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