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Post by Captain Obvious on Jul 13, 2021 11:57:01 GMT -4
I didn't see him play enough to comment much but i think calling him a third pairing dman is a bit of a stretch.... surely his play hasn't fallen off that badly and they gave up very little..... which is obviously the result of taking the full caphit on For me the big cost is 11M over the next 2 years against the cap. If Chicago retained 50%, then the trade makes a lot more sense.
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Post by Captain Obvious on Jul 13, 2021 13:22:49 GMT -4
Parise and Suter bought out...huge dead cap hits in year 2, 3 and 4...
DEAD CAP BUYOUT HISTORY (2) 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 Zach Parise $2,371,794 $6,371,794 $7,371,794 $7,371,794 $833,333 $833,333 Ryan Suter $2,371,794 $6,371,794 $7,371,794 $7,371,794 $833,333 $833,333 TOTAL $4,743,588 $12,743,588 $14,743,588 $14,743,588 $1,666,666 $1,666,666
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Post by jimmy on Jul 13, 2021 13:43:42 GMT -4
Parise and Suter bought out...huge dead cap hits in year 2, 2 and 4... DEAD CAP BUYOUT HISTORY (2) 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 Zach Parise $2,371,794 $6,371,794 $7,371,794 $7,371,794 $833,333 $833,333 Ryan Suter $2,371,794 $6,371,794 $7,371,794 $7,371,794 $833,333 $833,333 TOTAL $4,743,588 $12,743,588 $14,743,588 $14,743,588 $1,666,666 $1,666,666 Agreed - surprised to see they bought them both out ... I figured Parise, but not Suter for the very reason you describe ... going to be tough to compete with $13-15 mill in dead cap space ...
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Post by Captain Obvious on Jul 13, 2021 13:49:58 GMT -4
Parise and Suter bought out...huge dead cap hits in year 2, 2 and 4... DEAD CAP BUYOUT HISTORY (2) 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 Zach Parise $2,371,794 $6,371,794 $7,371,794 $7,371,794 $833,333 $833,333 Ryan Suter $2,371,794 $6,371,794 $7,371,794 $7,371,794 $833,333 $833,333 TOTAL $4,743,588 $12,743,588 $14,743,588 $14,743,588 $1,666,666 $1,666,666 Agreed - surprised to see they bought them both out ... I figured Parise, but not Suter for the very reason you describe ... going to be tough to compete with $13-15 mill in dead cap space ... They save about 10M in year one but only about 2M year 2 and only 300K in years 3 and 4. Unless the cap rises by a lot in 2 and 3 years they will be competing minus almost 20% of their cap. Even if you use minimum salary players(750k) to replace them, those two roster spots cost you over 16M in 2023 and 2024.
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Post by jimmy on Jul 13, 2021 14:07:09 GMT -4
Agreed - surprised to see they bought them both out ... I figured Parise, but not Suter for the very reason you describe ... going to be tough to compete with $13-15 mill in dead cap space ... They save about 10M in year one but only about 2M year 2 and only 300K in years 3 and 4. Unless the cap rises by a lot in 2 and 3 years they will be competing minus almost 20% of their cap. Even if you use minimum salary players(750k) to replace them, those two roster spots cost you over 16M in 2023 and 2024. I think both of those deals will go down in history as flops ... they never managed to win anything during the Parise/Suter era, and it didn't really move the needle much in terms of the Wild's overall image/popularity. If you accept the premise that in a long term deal like these there will be years at the end when the player doesn't live up to their cap hit, there needs to be more years in the early going where the player exceeds the value of the cap hit ... not sure that ever happened in this case.
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Post by Captain Obvious on Jul 13, 2021 14:47:25 GMT -4
They save about 10M in year one but only about 2M year 2 and only 300K in years 3 and 4. Unless the cap rises by a lot in 2 and 3 years they will be competing minus almost 20% of their cap. Even if you use minimum salary players(750k) to replace them, those two roster spots cost you over 16M in 2023 and 2024. I think both of those deals will go down in history as flops ... they never managed to win anything during the Parise/Suter era, and it didn't really move the needle much in terms of the Wild's overall image/popularity. If you accept the premise that in a long term deal like these there will be years at the end when the player doesn't live up to their cap hit, there needs to be more years in the early going where the player exceeds the value of the cap hit ... not sure that ever happened in this case. The length of the contracts was a killer, though if you take out the 3 years and 4M at the end, you have 10 year 94M deals. There are a lot more busts in mega contracts in UFA than hits...Richards and Tavares are other big UFA deals. Briere Gomez Bobrovsky plus lesser deals like Lucic Ladd Okposo etc
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Post by scotiahockey on Jul 13, 2021 17:07:37 GMT -4
I think both of those deals will go down in history as flops ... they never managed to win anything during the Parise/Suter era, and it didn't really move the needle much in terms of the Wild's overall image/popularity. If you accept the premise that in a long term deal like these there will be years at the end when the player doesn't live up to their cap hit, there needs to be more years in the early going where the player exceeds the value of the cap hit ... not sure that ever happened in this case. The length of the contracts was a killer, though if you take out the 3 years and 4M at the end, you have 10 year 94M deals. There are a lot more busts in mega contracts in UFA than hits...Richards and Tavares are other big UFA deals. Briere Gomez Bobrovsky plus lesser deals like Lucic Ladd Okposo etc I wouldn’t call Tavares a bust yet, he didn’t look quite the same this season, a lot of players didn’t though. Through 3 seasons, he’s out produced his final 3 seasons in NY on a per game basis, which is all we have since 2 seasons have been shortened. I don’t think he’s going to be worth it at the very end (and I didn’t think he would when he signed it either) but so far, he’s held up his end of the bargain. He was never a 40 goal guy or 90 point guy in New York, everyone knew what he’d bring to the table. If they don’t win a cup with him, it’ll be a “failure” but as far as on ice production, he’s not in the same category as those other contracts you mention, not even close. He’s actually bringing value, the other ones really never delivered on their contracts at all. As a general rule though, you always overpay in FA to get stars. They almost never hold up at the end when they’re 34-35-36, because who’s as good at that age as they were when you’re 25-26? Basically no one. You’re basically paying for what they’ve done, not what they’re going to do, it’s usually not a good way to run your business. It’s always better to get out a couple years too early, then 5 years too late.
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Post by Captain Obvious on Jul 13, 2021 17:24:45 GMT -4
The length of the contracts was a killer, though if you take out the 3 years and 4M at the end, you have 10 year 94M deals. There are a lot more busts in mega contracts in UFA than hits...Richards and Tavares are other big UFA deals. Briere Gomez Bobrovsky plus lesser deals like Lucic Ladd Okposo etc I wouldn’t call Tavares a bust yet, he didn’t look quite the same this season, a lot of players didn’t though. Through 3 seasons, he’s out produced his final 3 seasons in NY on a per game basis, which is all we have since 2 seasons have been shortened. I don’t think he’s going to be worth it at the very end (and I didn’t think he would when he signed it either) but so far, he’s held up his end of the bargain. He was never a 40 goal guy or 90 point guy in New York, everyone knew what he’d bring to the table. If they don’t win a cup with him, it’ll be a “failure” but as far as on ice production, he’s not in the same category as those other contracts you mention, not even close. He’s actually bringing value, the other ones really never delivered on their contracts at all. As a general rule though, you always overpay in FA to get stars. They almost never hold up at the end when they’re 34-35-36, because who’s as good at that age as they were when you’re 25-26? Basically no one. You’re basically paying for what they’ve done, not what they’re going to do, it’s usually not a good way to run your business. It’s always better to get out a couple years too early, then 5 years too late. Tavares is being paid superstar money and he hasn't been a superstar in Toronto, it will only get worse as he slows.
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Post by Citris on Jul 13, 2021 18:06:03 GMT -4
Really interesting. What else is interesting is to see where those 2 end up. I imagine they'll probably sign 1 year deals somewhere else.
We all knew those contracts were going to bite the Wild in the end but, this is rough.
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Post by yesisaiditfirst on Jul 13, 2021 18:45:52 GMT -4
They save about 10M in year one but only about 2M year 2 and only 300K in years 3 and 4. Unless the cap rises by a lot in 2 and 3 years they will be competing minus almost 20% of their cap. Even if you use minimum salary players(750k) to replace them, those two roster spots cost you over 16M in 2023 and 2024. I think both of those deals will go down in history as flops ... they never managed to win anything during the Parise/Suter era, and it didn't really move the needle much in terms of the Wild's overall image/popularity. If you accept the premise that in a long term deal like these there will be years at the end when the player doesn't live up to their cap hit, there needs to be more years in the early going where the player exceeds the value of the cap hit ... not sure that ever happened in this case. at the time they were signed Suter and Parise came out of bidding wars with several teams in summer of 2012 they had ability to be impact deals. Biggest move Minnesota ever made. They had momentum and optimism. But then the lockout happened and sort of lost any excitement. They didn't get on the ice in a game until January 2013. That move had potential. But they knew at the time in 8 years they would suffer for it. As a short term move for an organization without teeth and spark it was good. It probably changed the culture on D in Minnesota and the leadership of those players probably changed players around them. But they never won anything. In fact the playoff series this year Suter looked great and they pushed Vegas to the edge but not over. Really Minnesota has a good thing going right now. Because their players have learned from guys like Suter & Parise being there. It's hard to put a value on that. Their biggest issue has been the last decade inability to break games open. But they play tough D and always good responsible protecting their own end.
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Post by themandalorian on Jul 13, 2021 23:55:16 GMT -4
I think both of those deals will go down in history as flops ... they never managed to win anything during the Parise/Suter era, and it didn't really move the needle much in terms of the Wild's overall image/popularity. If you accept the premise that in a long term deal like these there will be years at the end when the player doesn't live up to their cap hit, there needs to be more years in the early going where the player exceeds the value of the cap hit ... not sure that ever happened in this case. at the time they were signed Suter and Parise came out of bidding wars with several teams in summer of 2012 they had ability to be impact deals. Biggest move Minnesota ever made. They had momentum and optimism. But then the lockout happened and sort of lost any excitement. They didn't get on the ice in a game until January 2013. That move had potential. But they knew at the time in 8 years they would suffer for it. As a short term move for an organization without teeth and spark it was good. It probably changed the culture on D in Minnesota and the leadership of those players probably changed players around them. But they never won anything. In fact the playoff series this year Suter looked great and they pushed Vegas to the edge but not over. Really Minnesota has a good thing going right now. Because their players have learned from guys like Suter & Parise being there. It's hard to put a value on that. Their biggest issue has been the last decade inability to break games open. But they play tough D and always good responsible protecting their own end. Minnesota also had to play Chicago during their dynasty year as well as Nashville when they were peaking and of course St. Louis who was always a tough out and the Blues finally put it together in 2019.
Minnesota looked really good 7-8 years ago but the whole Western Conference back then, except for the Canadian teams and the Avalanche until the last few years, was very tough and now it is the Eastern Conference which is tougher.
Despite buying out Suter and Parise I think Minnesota will stay competitive in their division as I think the only elite team in it right now are the Avs.
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Post by scotiahockey on Jul 14, 2021 0:18:28 GMT -4
I wouldn’t call Tavares a bust yet, he didn’t look quite the same this season, a lot of players didn’t though. Through 3 seasons, he’s out produced his final 3 seasons in NY on a per game basis, which is all we have since 2 seasons have been shortened. I don’t think he’s going to be worth it at the very end (and I didn’t think he would when he signed it either) but so far, he’s held up his end of the bargain. He was never a 40 goal guy or 90 point guy in New York, everyone knew what he’d bring to the table. If they don’t win a cup with him, it’ll be a “failure” but as far as on ice production, he’s not in the same category as those other contracts you mention, not even close. He’s actually bringing value, the other ones really never delivered on their contracts at all. As a general rule though, you always overpay in FA to get stars. They almost never hold up at the end when they’re 34-35-36, because who’s as good at that age as they were when you’re 25-26? Basically no one. You’re basically paying for what they’ve done, not what they’re going to do, it’s usually not a good way to run your business. It’s always better to get out a couple years too early, then 5 years too late. Tavares is being paid superstar money and he hasn't been a superstar in Toronto, it will only get worse as he slows. Top 10 in goals, top 20 in points, essentially a point per game. He’s one of the leagues premier players and delivered on his expectations. I don’t know exactly what you expected but that contract is not yet bad. It may become it but it’s not there yet.
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Post by Captain Obvious on Jul 14, 2021 6:55:48 GMT -4
Tavares is being paid superstar money and he hasn't been a superstar in Toronto, it will only get worse as he slows. Top 10 in goals, top 20 in points, essentially a point per game. He’s one of the leagues premier players and delivered on his expectations. I don’t know exactly what you expected but that contract is not yet bad. It may become it but it’s not there yet. Again, he is paid like a superstar, Mcdavid Draisaitl Price Kucherov type performances expected. PPGM guys usually get 7-8M AAV not 11M. Plus they have yet to win a playoff round with him.
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Post by scotiahockey on Jul 14, 2021 7:43:41 GMT -4
Top 10 in goals, top 20 in points, essentially a point per game. He’s one of the leagues premier players and delivered on his expectations. I don’t know exactly what you expected but that contract is not yet bad. It may become it but it’s not there yet. Again, he is paid like a superstar, Mcdavid Draisaitl Price Kucherov type performances expected. PPGM guys usually get 7-8M AAV not 11M. Plus they have yet to win a playoff round with him. If Tavares isn’t a superstar, neither is Price. You can’t make 10+ million and put up below average save percentages in 3 of 4 seasons. If Tavares was on Montreal, you’d be considering him as the 2nd coming.
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Post by Captain Obvious on Jul 14, 2021 7:55:18 GMT -4
Again, he is paid like a superstar, Mcdavid Draisaitl Price Kucherov type performances expected. PPGM guys usually get 7-8M AAV not 11M. Plus they have yet to win a playoff round with him. If Tavares isn’t a superstar, neither is Price. You can’t make 10+ million and put up below average save percentages in 3 of 4 seasons. If Tavares was on Montreal, you’d be considering him as the 2nd coming. Tavares didn't put superstar numbers on a high scoring NHL team, Price's numbers suffered because the team was rebuilding. I'm not a fan of his contract in 3 and 4 years, but he impacts the game more than Tavares and it showed at playoff time.
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