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Post by Citris on Jun 27, 2023 22:05:56 GMT -4
The 31st and 37th Picks in the Best Draft in 20 Years for a Guy that "may" play in your Top 6 .....didn't come cheap ....hopefully it works out . I still don’t understand the didn't come cheap argument.. if I you had said a year ago you could get Newhook for Chiarot and a 2nd rounder, you’d have been laughed at. Now that’s a year ago but I still think the value is still there. The guy is 2 seasons into his NHL career here, anyone you’re taking at 31 or 37 is probably 3 years away from realistically making the NHL and who knows the impact they make if they even do. You get a young player, who is an NHLer, who I think fits the timeline better for this team and has high upside. I think Montreal bought low here because with more ice time and a little more developed body, I think his value is going to go way up. Exactly, how many 31st and 37th overall picks actually make the NHL? Around 34% play over 100 games, I believe. 2 1-in-3 dice rolls vs. a 22 year old with 159 games of NHL experience and almost 30 goals and 66 points under his belt. Is it possible that one of those picks becomes a very good player? Absolutely. But it's not likely, and the Habs already have quite a deep prospect pool. At some point you need to turn those assets into the guys who actually go out and play NHL hockey for your team.
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Post by Captain Obvious on Jun 28, 2023 7:34:29 GMT -4
The 31st and 37th Picks in the Best Draft in 20 Years for a Guy that "may" play in your Top 6 .....didn't come cheap ....hopefully it works out . I still don’t understand the didn't come cheap argument.. if I you had said a year ago you could get Newhook for Chiarot and a 2nd rounder, you’d have been laughed at. Now that’s a year ago but I still think the value is still there. The guy is 2 seasons into his NHL career here, anyone you’re taking at 31 or 37 is probably 3 years away from realistically making the NHL and who knows the impact they make if they even do. You get a young player, who is an NHLer, who I think fits the timeline better for this team and has high upside. I think Montreal bought low here because with more ice time and a little more developed body, I think his value is going to go way up. Agree, they paid a good value, not a steal, but Newhook is a pretty high upside guy who fits their age group. I could see him having a Palmieri type career.
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Post by Smiley on Jun 28, 2023 8:47:12 GMT -4
I still don’t understand the didn't come cheap argument.. if I you had said a year ago you could get Newhook for Chiarot and a 2nd rounder, you’d have been laughed at. Now that’s a year ago but I still think the value is still there. The guy is 2 seasons into his NHL career here, anyone you’re taking at 31 or 37 is probably 3 years away from realistically making the NHL and who knows the impact they make if they even do. You get a young player, who is an NHLer, who I think fits the timeline better for this team and has high upside. I think Montreal bought low here because with more ice time and a little more developed body, I think his value is going to go way up. Exactly, how many 31st and 37th overall picks actually make the NHL? Around 34% play over 100 games, I believe. 2 1-in-3 dice rolls vs. a 22 year old with 159 games of NHL experience and almost 30 goals and 66 points under his belt. Is it possible that one of those picks becomes a very good player? Absolutely. But it's not likely, and the Habs already have quite a deep prospect pool. At some point you need to turn those assets into the guys who actually go out and play NHL hockey for your team. In the second round you still have the ability to draft a Hintz, Robertson, Stankhoven, Greenway,Seb Aho, Debrincat, Kyrou. And that is just a quick look at stars. Lots of value in those picks if you can draft well and if you have a great development program (see the Stars - one of the best currently at developing players and not rushing them). On the surface, It's an intriguing trade. I do think it was expensive but sometimes you need to do use your draft assets to get players now. The challenge in this thread are those saying he is proven and that he will fit into Montreal's top 6. While Newhook has played 2 seasons he has only proven to be a bottom 6 player so far. This year was his year to step up, and even with Colorado being hammered with injuries he couldn't step into a top 6 role...and actually produced less this past year than he did his rookie season (even though he played more games). I wouldn't call Montreal a winner in this trade yet. We won't know true value of this trade until about 2-3 years when those picks should be in the NHL. But Newhook could develop greatly in Montreal or he could be another former Moosehead Legend who underachieved for the Habs vs expectations.
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Post by Captain Obvious on Jun 28, 2023 9:04:39 GMT -4
Exactly, how many 31st and 37th overall picks actually make the NHL? Around 34% play over 100 games, I believe. 2 1-in-3 dice rolls vs. a 22 year old with 159 games of NHL experience and almost 30 goals and 66 points under his belt. Is it possible that one of those picks becomes a very good player? Absolutely. But it's not likely, and the Habs already have quite a deep prospect pool. At some point you need to turn those assets into the guys who actually go out and play NHL hockey for your team. In the second round you still have the ability to draft a Hintz, Robertson, Stankhoven, Greenway,Seb Aho, Debrincat, Kyrou. And that is just a quick look at stars. Lots of value in those picks if you can draft well and if you have a great development program (see the Stars - one of the best currently at developing players and not rushing them). On the surface, It's an intriguing trade. I do think it was expensive but sometimes you need to do use your draft assets to get players now. The challenge in this thread are those saying he is proven and that he will fit into Montreal's top 6. While Newhook has played 2 seasons he has only proven to be a bottom 6 player so far. This year was his year to step up, and even with Colorado being hammered with injuries he couldn't step into a top 6 role...and actually produced less this past year than he did his rookie season (even though he played more games). I wouldn't call Montreal a winner in this trade yet. We won't know true value of this trade until about 2-3 years when those picks should be in the NHL. But Newhook could develop greatly in Montreal or he could be another former Moosehead Legend who underachieved for the Habs vs expectations. Even with all the injuries, he still only got under 14 min per game, so it's not like he went up to 17 and production didn't follow. If they play him top 6 I think 50 points is a pretty safe expectation based on more PP time and around 17 min per game.
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Post by bois on Jun 28, 2023 9:17:01 GMT -4
i typed out a lengthy response and got logged out trying to post it.... cannot be bothered retyping
i am giving deal time to see how it plays out but i think it's a high price no matter what you guys say and if paying that price i'm looking for someone a bit more proven than a 15 goal scorer on an offensive juggernaut
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Post by Smiley on Jun 28, 2023 9:17:16 GMT -4
In the second round you still have the ability to draft a Hintz, Robertson, Stankhoven, Greenway,Seb Aho, Debrincat, Kyrou. And that is just a quick look at stars. Lots of value in those picks if you can draft well and if you have a great development program (see the Stars - one of the best currently at developing players and not rushing them). On the surface, It's an intriguing trade. I do think it was expensive but sometimes you need to do use your draft assets to get players now. The challenge in this thread are those saying he is proven and that he will fit into Montreal's top 6. While Newhook has played 2 seasons he has only proven to be a bottom 6 player so far. This year was his year to step up, and even with Colorado being hammered with injuries he couldn't step into a top 6 role...and actually produced less this past year than he did his rookie season (even though he played more games). I wouldn't call Montreal a winner in this trade yet. We won't know true value of this trade until about 2-3 years when those picks should be in the NHL. But Newhook could develop greatly in Montreal or he could be another former Moosehead Legend who underachieved for the Habs vs expectations. Even with all the injuries, he still only got under 14 min per game, so it's not like he went up to 17 and production didn't follow. If they play him top 6 I think 50 points is a pretty safe expectation based on more PP time and around 17 min per game. Thanks for proving my point...he couldn't earn top 6 minutes. Again, I am not complaining or making fun of the trade, Montreal needs help now. Although I am not sure I would say 50 points is a safe expectation. Only 1 player made over 50 points all last season (yes I know injuries factored into that). 50 points would be a great improvement and would be a good season, but history tells us it isn't safe.
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Post by jordo999 on Jun 28, 2023 11:34:59 GMT -4
Colorado just flipped that 37th overall for Ross Colton...pretty solid addition imo. Colton scored 16 goals playing 12 minutes a night on average and is a pest. Only 26 as well. Could score 25 in Colorado.
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Post by bois on Jun 28, 2023 12:02:43 GMT -4
yep would have preferred the Habs just did that move instead to be honest
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Post by Jack Bauer on Jun 28, 2023 12:18:04 GMT -4
2 top 40 picks is a high price but the upside is high as well. It's the more developed player you hope you know vs 2 kids you hope will be where Newhook is now in 3-4 years.
For a young team with a lot of picks I think its a smart move.
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Post by hal on Jun 28, 2023 12:41:03 GMT -4
Elliott Friedman just said that he is hearing and wouldn't be surprised if the Habs move down out of #5 after the Newhook Trade . They must have a bunch of Players graded pretty closely .
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Post by Captain Obvious on Jun 28, 2023 12:53:26 GMT -4
i typed out a lengthy response and got logged out trying to post it.... cannot be bothered retyping i am giving deal time to see how it plays out but i think it's a high price no matter what you guys say and if paying that price i'm looking for someone a bit more proven than a 15 goal scorer on an offensive juggernaut Playing on an offensive juggernaut is an advantage if you're playing with MacKinnon and Rantanen at 5 on 5 and PP, but if you have to compete with them for minutes, it's not as great.
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Post by jimmy on Jun 28, 2023 12:57:26 GMT -4
Exactly, how many 31st and 37th overall picks actually make the NHL? Around 34% play over 100 games, I believe. 2 1-in-3 dice rolls vs. a 22 year old with 159 games of NHL experience and almost 30 goals and 66 points under his belt. Is it possible that one of those picks becomes a very good player? Absolutely. But it's not likely, and the Habs already have quite a deep prospect pool. At some point you need to turn those assets into the guys who actually go out and play NHL hockey for your team. In the second round you still have the ability to draft a Hintz, Robertson, Stankhoven, Greenway,Seb Aho, Debrincat, Kyrou. And that is just a quick look at stars. Lots of value in those picks if you can draft well and if you have a great development program (see the Stars - one of the best currently at developing players and not rushing them). On the surface, It's an intriguing trade. I do think it was expensive but sometimes you need to do use your draft assets to get players now. The challenge in this thread are those saying he is proven and that he will fit into Montreal's top 6. While Newhook has played 2 seasons he has only proven to be a bottom 6 player so far. This year was his year to step up, and even with Colorado being hammered with injuries he couldn't step into a top 6 role...and actually produced less this past year than he did his rookie season (even though he played more games). I wouldn't call Montreal a winner in this trade yet. We won't know true value of this trade until about 2-3 years when those picks should be in the NHL. But Newhook could develop greatly in Montreal or he could be another former Moosehead Legend who underachieved for the Habs vs expectations. I think the trade is fair ... I am not going to say it is a steal, but I think the value is reasonable. Yes, you can get a star player early in the 2nd round - you provided a few examples. You can also get a dud. For fun, I went back five to seven years to see who picks 31 and 37 would have been in the draft - in 2018, turns out they were Alexander Alexeyev, who has played 33 NHL games so far, and Jett Woo, who has yet to make the NHL. 2017? Klim Kostin and Marcus Davidsson (never made NHL). 2016? Egor Korshkov (1 NHL game) and Libor Hajek. If that ends up being the return, unless Newhook regresses substantially, the Habs will end up quite happy with the trade.
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Post by bois on Jun 28, 2023 13:15:53 GMT -4
In the second round you still have the ability to draft a Hintz, Robertson, Stankhoven, Greenway,Seb Aho, Debrincat, Kyrou. And that is just a quick look at stars. Lots of value in those picks if you can draft well and if you have a great development program (see the Stars - one of the best currently at developing players and not rushing them). On the surface, It's an intriguing trade. I do think it was expensive but sometimes you need to do use your draft assets to get players now. The challenge in this thread are those saying he is proven and that he will fit into Montreal's top 6. While Newhook has played 2 seasons he has only proven to be a bottom 6 player so far. This year was his year to step up, and even with Colorado being hammered with injuries he couldn't step into a top 6 role...and actually produced less this past year than he did his rookie season (even though he played more games). I wouldn't call Montreal a winner in this trade yet. We won't know true value of this trade until about 2-3 years when those picks should be in the NHL. But Newhook could develop greatly in Montreal or he could be another former Moosehead Legend who underachieved for the Habs vs expectations. I think the trade is fair ... I am not going to say it is a steal, but I think the value is reasonable. Yes, you can get a star player early in the 2nd round - you provided a few examples. You can also get a dud. For fun, I went back five to seven years to see who picks 31 and 37 would have been in the draft - in 2018, turns out they were Alexander Alexeyev, who has played 33 NHL games so far, and Jett Woo, who has yet to make the NHL. 2017? Klim Kostin and Marcus Davidsson (never made NHL). 2016? Egor Korshkov (1 NHL game) and Libor Hajek. If that ends up being the return, unless Newhook regresses substantially, the Habs will end up quite happy with the trade. the return has already turned into 31 and Ross Colten the Avs no longer care who winds up drafted with 37
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Post by Captain Obvious on Jun 28, 2023 13:26:28 GMT -4
I think the trade is fair ... I am not going to say it is a steal, but I think the value is reasonable. Yes, you can get a star player early in the 2nd round - you provided a few examples. You can also get a dud. For fun, I went back five to seven years to see who picks 31 and 37 would have been in the draft - in 2018, turns out they were Alexander Alexeyev, who has played 33 NHL games so far, and Jett Woo, who has yet to make the NHL. 2017? Klim Kostin and Marcus Davidsson (never made NHL). 2016? Egor Korshkov (1 NHL game) and Libor Hajek. If that ends up being the return, unless Newhook regresses substantially, the Habs will end up quite happy with the trade. the return has already turned into 31 and Ross Colten the Avs no longer care who winds up drafted with 37 You're looking at apples and oranges...Newhook just turned 22 and is likely entering his prime, there is likely another level he can reach, maybe two. Colton is going to be 27 for next year so chances are he is what he is, 3rd liner on a contender, goes from one contender to another. Newhook is going to a rebuilding team and should be getting extended looks with bigger minutes.
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Post by bois on Jun 28, 2023 14:23:29 GMT -4
i'm not looking at anything i'm stating what the trade turned into
and I maintain i would have been quite happy to just keep the extra 1st and trade the 2nd for a more mature NHL'er who if he is what he is is still better than what Newhook is right now
Of course the upside on Newhook is greater... nobody questioning that at all
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