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Post by MikeC on Apr 1, 2010 14:36:13 GMT -4
50% one year plus 50% the next equals 75% of winning one of the two. Probability of choosing first this year was 50% for the Mooseheads and 50% for BC. One event, two possible outcomes - 1/2=50%. What happened last year had no bearing on what would have happened today. Have you taken any probability and statistics courses? First question on any basic probability exam: Q. A coin is tossed 20 times and comes up heads 20 times. What is the probability of the 21st toss coming up heads? A. 50% But what is the probabilty of heads coming up 21 times in a row? It certainly isn't 50%. I think that's what he's getting at.
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Post by defresh101 on Apr 1, 2010 14:37:45 GMT -4
It appears as though we also lost our hopes in hosting the 2011 entry draft today as well. Who cares maybe work our favour to get the Mem cup.
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Post by lalalaprise on Apr 1, 2010 15:02:45 GMT -4
If you're into Lazy playes that hang out in front of the net and let their centremen do all the work than Ciampini is your man. Ciampini isnt french... ya that kind of player sounds good to me. It seams to work well for Latendresse. i could give two shits who they pick as long as they can put the puck in the net Latendresse is WAY more physical than Ciampini is...people compare Latendresse to Ciampini but I dont like the comparison...Ciampini isnt near as bad a skater as Latendresse was at the same age and he doesnt have that physical dimension. And yes I agree....putting the puck in the net is a good quality to have, but we are talking about a guy who excelled in Midget with those lazy tendencies...he wont be able to put the puck in the net at the same rate if he doesnt improve on that, why else do you think a guy with his natural scoring ability isnt a lock to be the 1st overall pick in a draft where there arent any legit franchise types out there.
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Post by Captain Obvious on Apr 1, 2010 15:09:23 GMT -4
Probability of choosing first this year was 50% for the Mooseheads and 50% for BC. One event, two possible outcomes - 1/2=50%. What happened last year had no bearing on what would have happened today. Have you taken any probability and statistics courses? First question on any basic probability exam: Q. A coin is tossed 20 times and comes up heads 20 times. What is the probability of the 21st toss coming up heads? A. 50% But what is the probabilty of heads coming up 21 times in a row? It certainly isn't 50%. I think that's what he's getting at. The odds of winning at least one of the 2 is 75%, which is what he said.
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Post by Captain Obvious on Apr 1, 2010 15:10:59 GMT -4
If you're into Lazy playes that hang out in front of the net and let their centremen do all the work than Ciampini is your man. Ciampini isnt french... ya that kind of player sounds good to me. It seams to work well for Latendresse. i could give two shits who they pick as long as they can put the puck in the net Latendresse doesn't park himself in front of the net. Go look at his goals in Minny, 75% of them are skating into the slot and taking a pass or carrying the puck in.
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Post by bois on Apr 1, 2010 16:54:00 GMT -4
no big deal on losing the coin toss...apparently you battled hard and were in the flip all the way
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Post by qmaniac on Apr 1, 2010 17:19:31 GMT -4
It appears as though we also lost our hopes in hosting the 2011 entry draft today as well. Who cares maybe work our favour to get the Mem cup. The Mooseheads organization cares, I care and I'm sure a decent chunk of fellow fans care as well... Oh ya and losing the coin toss might give us an advantage in hosting the Memorial Cup too.
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Post by howitzer on Apr 1, 2010 21:30:47 GMT -4
We cant win anything!!
In all seriousness though, what does it matter. Sure it would have been nice to be #1 but regardless, we're still going to get a great player at #2 (if we keep the pick).
I'm all for trading down too. If there is no consensus #1-#2 guys then why not maximize the asset, move down a few spots and pick up an extra pick or 2 or a 17-18 yr old who can step in and help. I wouldnt want us to drop out of the top 6-7 picks. But it seems the drop off from the 1-2 spots down to 6-7 in this draft is marginal, so I think you'll see Cam get creative with the pick.
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Post by howitzer on Apr 1, 2010 21:52:22 GMT -4
What's up with Philippe Hudon anyway? I notice he's ranked in the 2nd round. He was a top prospect last year but was NCAA so he went undrafted. Has he softened on the whole NCAA thing at all?? If he has, he'd be a nice pick-up with one of our picks inside the top 37.
Has his stock fallen over the year at all or is he still thought of as a good player, just not looked at as closely due to the college thing?
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Post by lalalaprise on Apr 1, 2010 22:01:59 GMT -4
We cant win anything!! In all seriousness though, what does it matter. Sure it would have been nice to be #1 but regardless, we're still going to get a great player at #2 (if we keep the pick). I'm all for trading down too. If there is no consensus #1-#2 guys then why not maximize the asset, move down a few spots and pick up an extra pick or 2 or a 17-18 yr old who can step in and help. I wouldnt want us to drop out of the top 6-7 picks. But it seems the drop off from the 1-2 spots down to 6-7 in this draft is marginal, so I think you'll see Cam get creative with the pick. Youd need to find a team thats willing to trade up though, and many teams wouldnt...for the reasons you listed.
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Post by sharrow on Apr 1, 2010 22:31:12 GMT -4
Question, LaLa the moose have the 2nd overall pick but may choose to trade it to someone who is seeking a top d-man what could they expect in return in the way of picks would the other teams 1st rd and possibly a 3rd be a possibility. Thanks
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Post by howitzer on Apr 1, 2010 22:34:11 GMT -4
Question, LaLa the moose have the 2nd overall pick but may choose to trade it to someone who is seeking a top d-man what could they expect in return in the way of picks would the other teams 1st rd and possibly a 3rd be a possibility. Thanks I think we'd get more then just a swap of 1st and a 3rd pick. If that's all Cam could get for the pick then keep it.
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Post by sharrow on Apr 1, 2010 22:51:04 GMT -4
What would be your specific opinion of what it is worth to the right team ?
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Post by canbeer on Apr 2, 2010 0:33:47 GMT -4
With a couple of the Jr. A guys... we've heard Ashley is planning to head to Boston U, I believe, but what's the word on Ryan Tesink? Expected to be in the Q next year?
The Moose did well drafting Swan in the 4th rd. who I believe won the rookie of the year in Jr. A the year before. Ashley's ranked in the 3rd rd and Tesink in the 2nd... with a few 2nd round pick I'm wondering if Tesink may be a guy they'll target. With playing Jr. A and being a year older he could be a little more Q ready and fit a bit better with a '11-'12 run when he's 18 compared to a 17 year old. You also have Clarke (Burke's linemate and also a year older) who is also ranked in the 2nd round.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 2, 2010 6:20:54 GMT -4
With a couple of the Jr. A guys... we've heard Ashley is planning to head to Boston U, I believe, but what's the word on Ryan Tesink? Expected to be in the Q next year? The Moose did well drafting Swan in the 4th rd. who I believe won the rookie of the year in Jr. A the year before. Ashley's ranked in the 3rd rd and Tesink in the 2nd... with a few 2nd round pick I'm wondering if Tesink may be a guy they'll target. With playing Jr. A and being a year older he could be a little more Q ready and fit a bit better with a '11-'12 run when he's 18 compared to a 17 year old. You also have Clarke (Burke's linemate and also a year older) who is also ranked in the 2nd round. I know for a fact the Wildcats are very high on Ryan Tesink. And from what I'm hearing---I mentioned this on the Cats board as well---we'll be trading one of either Ted Stephens or Daniel Pettersen, both whom will be 20 year olds next season, to the Mooseheads along with our 3rd round pick in order to move up in the draft to grab Tesink.
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