December/January Trade Period

[catzfans]

The AHL announced it's alignment this afternoon and the season will open on Feb.5 So we should have answers on the future of Fortier,Groulx etc. soon

[Captain Obvious]

Jan 4, 2021 19:00:55 GMT -4 catzfans said:

The AHL announced it's alignment this afternoon and the season will open on Feb.5 So we should have answers on the future of Fortier,Groulx etc. soon

NHL Taxi squads could open up extra spots for players not in the ECHL.

[SteveUL]

Edmundston has a newness shine to it still and they have had a strong team. Will the fans continue to show up after they have a few rebuilding seasons ? Woodstock was a strong Jr A franchise for awhile but they are now gone. What is the capacity of the Edmundston rink ?

[Jack Bauer]

Jan 5, 2021 8:55:29 GMT -4 SteveUL said:

Edmundston has a newness shine to it still and they have had a strong team. Will the fans continue to show up after they have a few rebuilding seasons ? Woodstock was a strong Jr A franchise for awhile but they are now gone. What is the capacity of the Edmundston rink ?

This is from google:
The Jean Daigle Centre, the Amphitheatre in Edmundston, was inaugurated in October 2017. It holds a capacity of 2,400 seats around the ice rink and 3,700 people can take part in shows.

So you can probably argue for close to 3000 if they can fit some standing room.

[Deleted]

It seems off topic for a trade period thread, but just to clarify, the Edmundston region would seem very capable of supporting a QMJHL franchise. I realize that the preference of the league is to have rinks with seating capacities of more than 3,000, but beggars can't be choosers.

Is it better to mothball a franchise rather than to move it somewhere else where it might survive?

I would guess that any private owners with a substantial loss would hope to recuperate some of their losses by selling their franchise rather than folding it or having the league take it over and simply absorbing their losses with no return whatsoever.

The Edmundston Blizzard ticket is somewhere around $13.00 per game. I believe that some Q teams have game tickets in the $20.00 range, so I would guess that the region would support a Q team in that price range, no matter what the average household income is. They have basically sold out every game for more than three years now. As somebody mentioned, their location on the Quebec border with the Maritimes is ideal, and once the Covid pandemic is under control, their border with the US would only add to that.

As far as corporate support, I would think that a QMJHL team that draws somewhere around 2,800 plus per game will find a way to make it work if 14 other major junior franchises who draw less are finding a way to survive.

With regards to the comment about median income, the majority of workers in the City of Edmundston are above the national median income of $51,435 per year according to this url: townfolio.co/nb/edmundston/demographics

It matters little to me whether Edmundston goes after a Q team, but rather than simply giving an opinion, why not look at what the numbers say based on Major Junior attendance from last season.

An argument could be made that attendance would go down with a higher ticket price, but an argument could also be made that attendance would go up with the QMJHL brand.

Not looking for an argument, or for somebody to point out that I'm posting on the wrong thread. Sometimes threads take twists and turns but still remain interesting and relevant.

Based solely on the facts, I would guess that Edmundston would be seen as a viable option for a QMJHL ownership group looking to sell and trying to recoup some of their losses, rather than simply folding their franchise.

The Woodstock Slammers franchise had a great run in the MHL, but seating capacity at the Ayr Motor Centre was only 844, and the Slammers topped out with an average of 808 attendance. I believe they could squeeze around 1,200 in with standing room, maybe a bit more or less.

Average 2019-20 Attendance
(From the Internet Hockey Database)

Sherbrooke, QMJHL	2,974
Medicine Hat, WHL	2,947
Flint, OHL	2,883
Owen Sound, OHL	2,854
Edmundston, MHL	2,823
Cape Breton, QMJHL	2,807
Charlottetown, QMJHL	2,700
Prince George, WHL	2,433
Victoriaville, QMJHL	2,431
Mississauga, OHL	2,279
Drummondville, QMJHL	2,277
Blaineville, QMJHL	2,144
Gatineau, QMJHL	2,045
North Bay, OHL	2,040
Swift Current, WHL	1,954
Rouyn-Noranda QMJHL	1,941
Acadie-Bathurst, QMJHL	1,599
Val d'Or, QMJHL	1,588
Baie-Comeau, QMJHL	1,582

[Jack Bauer]

Jan 5, 2021 12:05:57 GMT -4 QMJHL Fan said:

It seems off topic for a trade period thread, but just to clarify, the Edmundston region would seem very capable of supporting a QMJHL franchise. I realize that the preference of the league is to have rinks with seating capacities of more than 3,000, but beggars can't be choosers.

Is it better to mothball a franchise rather than to move it somewhere else where it might survive?

I would guess that any private owners with a substantial loss would hope to recuperate some of their losses by selling their franchise rather than folding it or having the league take it over and simply absorbing their losses with no return whatsoever.

The Edmundston Blizzard ticket is somewhere around $13.00 per game. I believe that some Q teams have game tickets in the $20.00 range, so I would guess that the region would support a Q team in that price range, no matter what the average household income is. They have basically sold out every game for more than three years now. As somebody mentioned, their location on the Quebec border with the Maritimes is ideal, and once the Covid pandemic is under control, their border with the US would only add to that.

As far as corporate support, I would think that a QMJHL team that draws somewhere around 2,800 plus per game will find a way to make it work if 14 other major junior franchises who draw less are finding a way to survive.

With regards to the comment about median income, the majority of workers in the City of Edmundston are above the national median income of $51,435 per year according to this url: townfolio.co/nb/edmundston/demographics

It matters little to me whether Edmundston goes after a Q team, but rather than simply giving an opinion, why not look at what the numbers say based on Major Junior attendance from last season.

An argument could be made that attendance would go down with a higher ticket price, but an argument could also be made that attendance would go up with the QMJHL brand.

Not looking for an argument, or for somebody to point out that I'm posting on the wrong thread. Sometimes threads take twists and turns but still remain interesting and relevant.

Based solely on the facts, I would guess that Edmundston would be seen as a viable option for a QMJHL ownership group looking to sell and trying to recoup some of their losses, rather than simply folding their franchise.

The Woodstock Slammers franchise had a great run in the MHL, but seating capacity at the Ayr Motor Centre was only 844, and the Slammers topped out with an average of 808 attendance. I believe they could squeeze around 1,200 in with standing room, maybe a bit more or less.

Average 2019-20 Attendance
(From the Internet Hockey Database)

Sherbrooke, QMJHL	2,974
Medicine Hat, WHL	2,947
Flint, OHL	2,883
Owen Sound, OHL	2,854
Edmundston, MHL	2,823
Cape Breton, QMJHL	2,807
Charlottetown, QMJHL	2,700
Prince George, WHL	2,433
Victoriaville, QMJHL	2,431
Mississauga, OHL	2,279
Drummondville, QMJHL	2,277
Blaineville, QMJHL	2,144
Gatineau, QMJHL	2,045
North Bay, OHL	2,040
Swift Current, WHL	1,954
Rouyn-Noranda QMJHL	1,941
Acadie-Bathurst, QMJHL	1,599
Val d'Or, QMJHL	1,588
Baie-Comeau, QMJHL	1,582

Being a big fish in the MHL doesn't just translate into the same support for an average Q team though.

If it was a perennial contender...then I agree it can work. As can literally any rink in Canada where you can jam 2500-3000 people in for playoff games.

But is $20/ticket there 1800-2000 times for a rebuilding season? Along with the corporate support? The region is small and there's literally zero room for error. We already have a good idea based on what we know about the Q that without government getting involved most teams can't survive getting under 2000 fans regularly.

So if Edmundston is paying full lease costs, and full operations, and not being more then good more then 40% of the time (2 peak years out of 5 is probably close to average) I have a hard time believing its a long term solution.

And nobody moves for a short term solution it seems like. Teams don't generally go from A to C with a small stint at B unless it's in the same market and a new rink is being built or something. Like Gatineau right now. But when Lewiston was ready to go the league chose to fold it vs trying the team in another market for a year.

I'd love to say that Edmundston AND Summerside can and should be Q markets. But Bathurst has barely been a Q market for all but about 6 months of the last decade and I guarantee any discussion with their ownership would have anyone in Edmundston happy to be a Jr. A big fish.

Another Northern NB team crying about the success of the teams in the south led by Irving's and McCain's isn't a recipe for success in my opinion.

I hope it happens just so we can see how it would all unfold. But I think some markets are smart to realize where their success lies and to not try and outgrow that too much.

[jimmy]

Jan 5, 2021 13:06:37 GMT -4 Jack Bauer said:

Jan 5, 2021 12:05:57 GMT -4 QMJHL Fan said:

It seems off topic for a trade period thread, but just to clarify, the Edmundston region would seem very capable of supporting a QMJHL franchise. I realize that the preference of the league is to have rinks with seating capacities of more than 3,000, but beggars can't be choosers.

Is it better to mothball a franchise rather than to move it somewhere else where it might survive?

I would guess that any private owners with a substantial loss would hope to recuperate some of their losses by selling their franchise rather than folding it or having the league take it over and simply absorbing their losses with no return whatsoever.

The Edmundston Blizzard ticket is somewhere around $13.00 per game. I believe that some Q teams have game tickets in the $20.00 range, so I would guess that the region would support a Q team in that price range, no matter what the average household income is. They have basically sold out every game for more than three years now. As somebody mentioned, their location on the Quebec border with the Maritimes is ideal, and once the Covid pandemic is under control, their border with the US would only add to that.

As far as corporate support, I would think that a QMJHL team that draws somewhere around 2,800 plus per game will find a way to make it work if 14 other major junior franchises who draw less are finding a way to survive.

With regards to the comment about median income, the majority of workers in the City of Edmundston are above the national median income of $51,435 per year according to this url: townfolio.co/nb/edmundston/demographics

It matters little to me whether Edmundston goes after a Q team, but rather than simply giving an opinion, why not look at what the numbers say based on Major Junior attendance from last season.

An argument could be made that attendance would go down with a higher ticket price, but an argument could also be made that attendance would go up with the QMJHL brand.

Not looking for an argument, or for somebody to point out that I'm posting on the wrong thread. Sometimes threads take twists and turns but still remain interesting and relevant.

Based solely on the facts, I would guess that Edmundston would be seen as a viable option for a QMJHL ownership group looking to sell and trying to recoup some of their losses, rather than simply folding their franchise.

The Woodstock Slammers franchise had a great run in the MHL, but seating capacity at the Ayr Motor Centre was only 844, and the Slammers topped out with an average of 808 attendance. I believe they could squeeze around 1,200 in with standing room, maybe a bit more or less.

Average 2019-20 Attendance
(From the Internet Hockey Database)

Sherbrooke, QMJHL	2,974
Medicine Hat, WHL	2,947
Flint, OHL	2,883
Owen Sound, OHL	2,854
Edmundston, MHL	2,823
Cape Breton, QMJHL	2,807
Charlottetown, QMJHL	2,700
Prince George, WHL	2,433
Victoriaville, QMJHL	2,431
Mississauga, OHL	2,279
Drummondville, QMJHL	2,277
Blaineville, QMJHL	2,144
Gatineau, QMJHL	2,045
North Bay, OHL	2,040
Swift Current, WHL	1,954
Rouyn-Noranda QMJHL	1,941
Acadie-Bathurst, QMJHL	1,599
Val d'Or, QMJHL	1,588
Baie-Comeau, QMJHL	1,582

Being a big fish in the MHL doesn't just translate into the same support for an average Q team though.

If it was a perennial contender...then I agree it can work. As can literally any rink in Canada where you can jam 2500-3000 people in for playoff games.

But is $20/ticket there 1800-2000 times for a rebuilding season? Along with the corporate support? The region is small and there's literally zero room for error. We already have a good idea based on what we know about the Q that without government getting involved most teams can't survive getting under 2000 fans regularly.

So if Edmundston is paying full lease costs, and full operations, and not being more then good more then 40% of the time (2 peak years out of 5 is probably close to average) I have a hard time believing its a long term solution.

And nobody moves for a short term solution it seems like. Teams don't generally go from A to C with a small stint at B unless it's in the same market and a new rink is being built or something. Like Gatineau right now. But when Lewiston was ready to go the league chose to fold it vs trying the team in another market for a year.

I'd love to say that Edmundston AND Summerside can and should be Q markets. But Bathurst has barely been a Q market for all but about 6 months of the last decade and I guarantee any discussion with their ownership would have anyone in Edmundston happy to be a Jr. A big fish.

Another Northern NB team crying about the success of the teams in the south led by Irving's and McCain's isn't a recipe for success in my opinion.

I hope it happens just so we can see how it would all unfold. But I think some markets are smart to realize where their success lies and to not try and outgrow that too much.

I don't think anyone would want to go to Edmundston or Summerside, or wherever for a 1 year stint ... first off, you would have to have someone who wants to own a team there. But from a league perspective, small market teams like Bathurst, Baie-Comeau, and Val d'Or have all managed to survive (not necessarily thrive) for over 20 years now ... so if they thought one of Edmundston or Summerside could replicate that for even half that time span, my suspicion is that they would prefer that to folding a team.

[mav]

Hey guys, i really appreciate this info. But could you please make it its own thread and keep this one on topic?
Thanks guys

[lirette]

How good is Fillion?

It's quite the exercise to look and see that the Wildcats have not developed a goalie from age 16/17 since Riopel.

[mav]

Chosen 6th overall, im hoping the trade happens. This alone could be a huge building block trade for the Cats.

[Captain Obvious]

Jan 5, 2021 14:45:21 GMT -4 lirette said:

How good is Fillion?

It's quite the exercise to look and see that the Wildcats have not developed a goalie from age 16/17 since Riopel.

Developped a goalie 16 or 17? There have been a few, Trudeau Thibeau Waite C-A Lavallee.

[pong]

Jan 5, 2021 14:57:42 GMT -4 Captain Obvious said:

Jan 5, 2021 14:45:21 GMT -4 lirette said:

How good is Fillion?

It's quite the exercise to look and see that the Wildcats have not developed a goalie from age 16/17 since Riopel.

Developped a goalie 16 or 17? There have been a few, Trudeau Thibeau Waite C-A Lavallee.

He obviously means developing and playing them at 16 and 17 to have them on their roster in the go for it years as an 18 year old and 19 year old. Like Riopel. All your examples(except Thibeau) were traded or released

[lirette]

Jan 5, 2021 14:57:42 GMT -4 Captain Obvious said:

Jan 5, 2021 14:45:21 GMT -4 lirette said:

How good is Fillion?

It's quite the exercise to look and see that the Wildcats have not developed a goalie from age 16/17 since Riopel.

Developped a goalie 16 or 17? There have been a few, Trudeau Thibeau Waite C-A Lavallee.

Those goalies never turned into # 1's. I'm referring to drafting or trading for a 16 or 17 year old and developing him into a top tier starter.

[Captain Obvious]

Jan 5, 2021 15:06:00 GMT -4 pong said:

Jan 5, 2021 14:57:42 GMT -4 Captain Obvious said:

Developped a goalie 16 or 17? There have been a few, Trudeau Thibeau Waite C-A Lavallee.

He obviously means developing and playing them at 16 and 17 to have them on their roster in the go for it years as an 18 year old and 19 year old. Like Riopel. All your examples(except Thibeau) were traded or released

Ok but that wasn't clear from the original post.

I agree it's great to have a blue chip young goalie(assuming it happens) but the Wc track record with young goalies is not great. Hope this is another Rio/Crawford type deal. Not a Ca Lavallee, Waite Blanchard etc

[Citris]

Jan 5, 2021 14:45:21 GMT -4 lirette said:

How good is Fillion?

It's quite the exercise to look and see that the Wildcats have not developed a goalie from age 16/17 since Riopel.

Filion is very good, projects to be a franchise goalie, has played for Team Canada at that age group, and if he develops as expected you could see him as a world Junior goalie at 19.

He's a cornerstone piece if you're trying to rebuild.