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Post by Score on Aug 29, 2021 13:00:30 GMT -4
I would take the picks.
KK is not a 6.1mil player. Someday, perhaps....but not now.
And it's a 1yr deal..
I hope MB let's him walk and takes the 1st and 3rd
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Post by Captain Obvious on Aug 29, 2021 15:50:36 GMT -4
Revenge is a dish best served cold... I had a feeling the Aho offer sheet was going to come back and bite Bergevin in the Aho someday. It's not revenge if Mtl doesn't match, they lose a 1st and 3rd for a player that fits no need making 6+M. JKK won't replace Aho Staal or Necas...they also have Trochek and Stepan under contract. After the 6.1M his QO's will be high the next 3 years as well so they could non tender him next summer and end up with nothing. From a hockey standpoint it's an idiotic move for Car. Just a spiteful small owner.
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Post by Captain Obvious on Aug 29, 2021 15:51:48 GMT -4
I would take the picks. KK is not a 6.1mil player. Someday, perhaps....but not now. And it's a 1yr deal.. I hope MB let's him walk and takes the 1st and 3rd My thought exactly, JKK may never be a 6M player let alone next year. Plus due to QO's his salary as a RFA would remain about at that level or higher for 2022 2023 and 2024.
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Post by Captain Obvious on Aug 29, 2021 15:56:08 GMT -4
Looks Good on Molsons Boy , I am not so sure. If they don’t match they get a 1st and 3rd. Would Hab fans be happy if MTL traded him for that return? Hell yes they would. It was a reach when they drafted him. Carolina’s ego to get back handed MTL a gift. The only problem would be MTL matching. JKK is probably worth more than a 1st and 3rd(assuming Car is a playoff team, which is far from certain) if he is signed to a reasonable 2-2.5M AAV contract. When you have to give him 6M to be an average #3C, then the contract lowers the players value in a cap world to probably less. Based on the strength of the Metro and Atlantic, the Habs could have 2 lottery picks with Wright available.
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Post by Captain Obvious on Aug 29, 2021 15:58:47 GMT -4
I am not so sure. If they don’t match they get a 1st and 3rd. Would Hab fans be happy if MTL traded him for that return? Hell yes they would. It was a reach when they drafted him. Carolina’s ego to get back handed MTL a gift. The only problem would be MTL matching. You think that’s a good return for Kotkaniemi? Because I don’t, he was a “reach” but he was a top 5 prospect by the time the draft rolled around. You’re looking at getting a late 1st and late 3rd for a kid who’s 21 years old and has potential, it’s not a good return for the player. The $ isn’t good either but to give him up for that compensation is also a tough pill to swallow, especially considering their horrendous depth down the middle. Currently they have Suzuki/Paquette/Evans.. this team is going to get eaten up there. They rushed his development and it’s gotten people down on KK, I don’t like the development either but they’ve sort of done it to themselves with him. He should have been in Finland at 18, then Finland or the AHL at 19 and just cutting his teeth in the NHL this past season. I agree with most of this, but the pick could end up being a high pick, Car lost their best d-man, goaltending is still a question mark, though I think Andersen is better than Mrazek, with Nedjlovic gone. The Metro is loaded and the Atlantic is strong as well, Car could easily miss the playoffs.
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Post by jimmy on Aug 30, 2021 9:54:18 GMT -4
Quite the dilemma for the Habs ... I am going to try and lay out the thought process ... I think it is going to depend how the Habs view KK at this point - they know him best ... the little things that may influence long-term success ... is he the kind of guy that goes the extra mile in his off-season training, practice/preparation, diet and lifestyle, or is the kind of guy that does what is needed, but not more??? If the trainer tells him to do 5 sets of 15, is he the kind of guy that does 6? Or the kind of guy that does 4 sets of 12 and calls it a day? Does he show up for practice on time, or is he the kind of guy that is first to arrive and last to leave? Reading the tea leaves, my sense is the Habs are not completely thrilled with him for some reason ...
Match the offer sheet 1) KK explodes next season: In this case, you are out the short term pain of the cap space this year, but are left with an asset worth well in excess of the 1st/3rd compensation, and likely deserving (or close) of the cap hit in 2022 whether from a QO or via an extension with some term. Well worth matching if you think this is the likely outcome performance wise. 2) KK does not progress next season: In this situation, you have foregone a 1st/3rd, might be faced with losing him for nothing next summer if you do not QO him, or have a gross cap hit on an underperforming player in 2022/23 that you may be able to salvage something for in a trade if you eat some money. Plus screws up your internal cap structure. 3) Moderate progression next season: Here is where it gets tough if you think this is the most likely scenario ... you are left with a useful, but overpaid player moving forward. A QO is probably going to be needed to retain him for 2022/23 as it would seem likely that neither the player nor the team would be fully happy, making a long term extension (at a possible lower cap hit) questionable. I think you are probably better off taking the 1st/3rd and using the $6 mill in cap space to acquire one or more players who can bring more to the roster.
Decline to match
1) KK explodes next season: You look dumb, Carolina wins. 2) KK fails to progress next season: 1st and 3rd salvages something from your draft flop, Carolina left with a cap mess moving forward. Probably still a decent gamble from their perspective. 3) Moderate progression: Again, this is the tough one ... I will say, I think Carolina would have a better chance at an extension for term at a lower cap hit than the Habs would ... so if he has an OK but not great 2021/22, maybe they sign him to a 4 year $15 million contract or something ... and when the dust settles, probably ends up being fair to both teams.
Personally, I think moderate progression is the most likely scenario, meaning KK is not likely to be "worth" $6 million per season any time soon. I am slightly inclined to decline to match, but it is definitely a tough call - just depends on how much you think he will progress.
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Post by jimmy on Aug 30, 2021 10:02:37 GMT -4
For fun, I checked the NHL scoring leaders from last season ... of the top 30 guys ... NONE had failed to record at least 0.5 PPG by the end of their 3rd NHL season ... and only a couple had fell below 0.66 PPG by that point. So it would appear, with the possible odd exception, that if a player has not at least shown to be a good offensive player by the end of their 3rd season, it is unlikely they will become a top one at any point in their career.
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Post by Jack Bauer on Aug 30, 2021 10:39:30 GMT -4
Great theatre and entertainment.
But poor decision making.
Take the picks and run. I think Montreal has determined he's either years away or not going to get to where they thought when picking him.
So this is almost like a get out of jail free card as there's almost no local uproar if you just let him go as the salary is nuts for a guy you sat as a healthy scratch in the finals.
And the picks can be used to get you a similar player in terms of age and potential only on a proper salary.
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Post by Jack Bauer on Aug 30, 2021 10:43:40 GMT -4
I am not so sure. If they don’t match they get a 1st and 3rd. Would Hab fans be happy if MTL traded him for that return? Hell yes they would. It was a reach when they drafted him. Carolina’s ego to get back handed MTL a gift. The only problem would be MTL matching. JKK is probably worth more than a 1st and 3rd(assuming Car is a playoff team, which is far from certain) if he is signed to a reasonable 2-2.5M AAV contract. When you have to give him 6M to be an average #3C, then the contract lowers the players value in a cap world to probably less. Based on the strength of the Metro and Atlantic, the Habs could have 2 lottery picks with Wright available. And the assets available to make a blockbuster deal if they want to move up. Outside of being spiteful and proving a point I just dont get this move for Carolina. I know they love their Finns but I feel like its ego vs projecting the talent as the move doesnt really improve them all that much which makes you wonder why bother doing it. I dont think it really puts Montreal in the bind Carolina thinks it does unless Montreal does still view him as a future #1 C in which case they likely already would have matched it.
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Post by bois on Aug 30, 2021 10:47:07 GMT -4
absolutely no way they match
take the picks and package them in a seperate deal is the most likely scenario IMO
they won't be looking for lottery picks after making the finals last year and in Bergevins last year at the helm he is going out with a bang
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Post by Captain Obvious on Aug 30, 2021 15:14:17 GMT -4
Quite the dilemma for the Habs ... I am going to try and lay out the thought process ... I think it is going to depend how the Habs view KK at this point - they know him best ... the little things that may influence long-term success ... is he the kind of guy that goes the extra mile in his off-season training, practice/preparation, diet and lifestyle, or is the kind of guy that does what is needed, but not more??? If the trainer tells him to do 5 sets of 15, is he the kind of guy that does 6? Or the kind of guy that does 4 sets of 12 and calls it a day? Does he show up for practice on time, or is he the kind of guy that is first to arrive and last to leave? Reading the tea leaves, my sense is the Habs are not completely thrilled with him for some reason ... Match the offer sheet 1) KK explodes next season: In this case, you are out the short term pain of the cap space this year, but are left with an asset worth well in excess of the 1st/3rd compensation, and likely deserving (or close) of the cap hit in 2022 whether from a QO or via an extension with some term. Well worth matching if you think this is the likely outcome performance wise. 2) KK does not progress next season: In this situation, you have foregone a 1st/3rd, might be faced with losing him for nothing next summer if you do not QO him, or have a gross cap hit on an underperforming player in 2022/23 that you may be able to salvage something for in a trade if you eat some money. Plus screws up your internal cap structure. 3) Moderate progression next season: Here is where it gets tough if you think this is the most likely scenario ... you are left with a useful, but overpaid player moving forward. A QO is probably going to be needed to retain him for 2022/23 as it would seem likely that neither the player nor the team would be fully happy, making a long term extension (at a possible lower cap hit) questionable. I think you are probably better off taking the 1st/3rd and using the $6 mill in cap space to acquire one or more players who can bring more to the roster. Decline to match 1) KK explodes next season: You look dumb, Carolina wins. 2) KK fails to progress next season: 1st and 3rd salvages something from your draft flop, Carolina left with a cap mess moving forward. Probably still a decent gamble from their perspective. 3) Moderate progression: Again, this is the tough one ... I will say, I think Carolina would have a better chance at an extension for term at a lower cap hit than the Habs would ... so if he has an OK but not great 2021/22, maybe they sign him to a 4 year $15 million contract or something ... and when the dust settles, probably ends up being fair to both teams. Personally, I think moderate progression is the most likely scenario, meaning KK is not likely to be "worth" $6 million per season any time soon. I am slightly inclined to decline to match, but it is definitely a tough call - just depends on how much you think he will progress. From a hockey standpoint, this is a horrible match for JKK. He won't be ahead of any of their top 3 C's...Necas Staal and Aho, even Trochek and possibly Stepan are there. Even playing wing he won't magically jump into the top 6 or PP, not the recipe for being worth 6M. In 2022 2023 and 2024 his QO's will be 6+M to retain his rights.
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Post by Captain Obvious on Aug 30, 2021 15:19:45 GMT -4
JKK is probably worth more than a 1st and 3rd(assuming Car is a playoff team, which is far from certain) if he is signed to a reasonable 2-2.5M AAV contract. When you have to give him 6M to be an average #3C, then the contract lowers the players value in a cap world to probably less. Based on the strength of the Metro and Atlantic, the Habs could have 2 lottery picks with Wright available. And the assets available to make a blockbuster deal if they want to move up. Outside of being spiteful and proving a point I just dont get this move for Carolina. I know they love their Finns but I feel like its ego vs projecting the talent as the move doesnt really improve them all that much which makes you wonder why bother doing it. I dont think it really puts Montreal in the bind Carolina thinks it does unless Montreal does still view him as a future #1 C in which case they likely already would have matched it. From a hockey standpoint, this is a ridiculous move for Car, they already have 3 or 4 better centers.
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Post by bois on Aug 31, 2021 7:50:22 GMT -4
they (Carolina) have alot of versatilty in their forward group...... Aho or Trocheck or Kotkaniemi can all play wing
for one year it's not ridiculous...... it's a spiteful play but there is very little risk on their part they either fuck Montreal over or they roll the dice for a year with a young big forward with potential to add to their mix
they don't have to bother qualifying him if they choose not to
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Post by Captain Obvious on Aug 31, 2021 8:03:44 GMT -4
they (Carolina) have alot of versatilty in their forward group...... Aho or Trocheck or Kotkaniemi can all play wing for one year it's not ridiculous...... it's a spiteful play but there is very little risk on their part they either fuck Montreal over or they roll the dice for a year with a young big forward with potential to add to their mix they don't have to bother qualifying him if they choose not to If you don't qualify him it cost a lot money and two very good picks just to stroke the owner's ego. Even if you play JKK on the wing, he isn't a top 6 forward on that team. He is 8th or 9th if you take positions out of the equation. I think part of their gamble is Montreal matches and it fucks them(Habs) up cap wise.
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Post by bois on Aug 31, 2021 8:16:31 GMT -4
lets be honest here
it costs them one very good pick if they don't qualify him
a 3rd round pick is nothing and can be recouped easily
they also have financial flexibility going forward as Neideretter and Trochek come off the books after next year
of course a big part of the gamble is fucking Montreal over but i think they will be fine if they take him on...... apparently they legitimately tried to trade for him before doing the offer sheet
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