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Post by Jack Bauer on Mar 11, 2024 11:06:06 GMT -4
Given the mess he inherited from Trump, he's done a good job. I'm not totally convinced Trump gets in again either. Legal issues aside, I think the traditional Republican voter is just very turned off by his policies and attitude. Sadly here though, I think Poilievre wins easily. Given some of the things he's saying, I'm nervous for what my future could be like with him making the calls as a likely majority lead Prime Minister. The headwind for the GOP in 2024 is that women have voted in huge numbers since Roe was overturned. Dems are outpacing the polls in every election since. The GOP trump card is the border and Biden/Dems if they play their cards right, can turn that into a wash after Johnson refused to put the border bill to a vote. The problem is these national issues such as abortion mean less in some of the states that will decide the election. The entire US election will come down to how 30,000 people or so vote in states like Georgia and Arizona. 30,000,000 Californians or New Yorkers don't matter in this system. The GOP trump card is ignorance. And that might be enough to win in that system.
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Post by Captain Obvious on Mar 11, 2024 11:37:18 GMT -4
The headwind for the GOP in 2024 is that women have voted in huge numbers since Roe was overturned. Dems are outpacing the polls in every election since. The GOP trump card is the border and Biden/Dems if they play their cards right, can turn that into a wash after Johnson refused to put the border bill to a vote. The problem is these national issues such as abortion mean less in some of the states that will decide the election. The entire US election will come down to how 30,000 people or so vote in states like Georgia and Arizona. 30,000,000 Californians or New Yorkers don't matter in this system. The GOP trump card is ignorance. And that might be enough to win in that system. Pennsylvania Georgia Michigan Arizona Nevada is where more educated men, minorities and women will decide the election. The deep red states will stay deep red, except for Texas which is trending more blue every year.
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Post by Mika on Mar 11, 2024 11:54:28 GMT -4
The problem is these national issues such as abortion mean less in some of the states that will decide the election. The entire US election will come down to how 30,000 people or so vote in states like Georgia and Arizona. 30,000,000 Californians or New Yorkers don't matter in this system. The GOP trump card is ignorance. And that might be enough to win in that system. Pennsylvania Georgia Michigan Arizona Nevada is where more educated men, minorities and women will decide the election. The deep red states will stay deep red, except for Texas which is trending more blue every year. How satisfying would that be to see the Republicans lose Texas?
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Post by Captain Obvious on Mar 11, 2024 12:10:45 GMT -4
Pennsylvania Georgia Michigan Arizona Nevada is where more educated men, minorities and women will decide the election. The deep red states will stay deep red, except for Texas which is trending more blue every year. How satisfying would that be to see the Republicans lose Texas? Might not be in 2024 but not that far away, Cruz being a terrible politician could lose his seat in the Senate this year though.
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Post by themandalorian on Apr 14, 2024 14:04:57 GMT -4
If Justin Trudeau resigns it has to happen soon as they would need months to conduct a leadership convention, if I remember correctly it took the Conservatives almost a year the last time, as their new leader and PM would want to have as long as possible to govern and run an election campaign for October 2025.
Latest 338Canada has the Conservatives at 208 seats.
Abacus has them with a 20% lead, Nanos has them with a 12% lead.
The Liberal Party of today is not the centrist party it was under Chretien and Martin.
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Post by moosefan1994 on Apr 14, 2024 15:50:48 GMT -4
If Justin Trudeau resigns it has to happen soon as they would need months to conduct a leadership convention, if I remember correctly it took the Conservatives almost a year the last time, as their new leader and PM would want to have as long as possible to govern and run an election campaign for October 2025.
Latest 338Canada has the Conservatives at 208 seats.
Abacus has them with a 20% lead, Nanos has them with a 12% lead.
The Liberal Party of today is not the centrist party it was under Chretien and Martin.
I’m conflicted on whether or not he resigns. I want him gone, the sooner the better I guess, but I am skittish about the ability of a new Liberal leader to get a bump off of being different from Trudeau. Thanks to Jagmeet and a bunch of MPs wanting their pensions there won’t be an election until October 2025, I shudder to see the damage that the next government is going to have to clean up.
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Post by themandalorian on Apr 14, 2024 20:47:00 GMT -4
Cold, hard economic numbers.
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Post by Mika on Apr 15, 2024 8:06:42 GMT -4
Cold, hard economic numbers.
Oh, right from Poilievre's YouTube channel, no spin in that at all. Quick google search shows the first number given is total bullshit, but go on.
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Post by Captain Obvious on Apr 15, 2024 8:21:38 GMT -4
Cold, hard economic numbers.
Oh, right from Poilievre's YouTube channel, no spin in that at all. Quick google search shows the first number given is total bullshit, but go on. Polievre isn't just taking one page from the Trump playbook but about half the book.
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Post by moosefan1994 on Apr 15, 2024 9:42:58 GMT -4
Oh, right from Poilievre's YouTube channel, no spin in that at all. Quick google search shows the first number given is total bullshit, but go on. Polievre isn't just taking one page from the Trump playbook but about half the book. Gaslighting at its finest courtesy of Billy, too bad the polls show it isn’t working!!
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Post by Captain Obvious on Apr 15, 2024 9:52:02 GMT -4
Polievre isn't just taking one page from the Trump playbook but about half the book. Gaslighting at its finest courtesy of Billy, too bad the polls show it isn’t working!! How is that gaslighting, he flirts with every far right wingnut in NA. He won't answer any hard questions from the press and he can't get a security clearance. He's a lifelong politician pretending to be an outside voice, much like Trump who was bought and paid for by large RW donors in the US. Also, polls 18 months from an election mean nothing. Pee pee will have to actually spend time under the microscope before an election and be exposed for the Harper boot licking fraud he is.
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Post by moosefan1994 on Apr 15, 2024 10:42:17 GMT -4
Gaslighting at its finest courtesy of Billy, too bad the polls show it isn’t working!! How is that gaslighting, he flirts with every far right wingnut in NA. He won't answer any hard questions from the press and he can't get a security clearance. He's a lifelong politician pretending to be an outside voice, much like Trump who was bought and paid for by large RW donors in the US. Also, polls 18 months from an election mean nothing. Pee pee will have to actually spend time under the microscope before an election and be exposed for the Harper boot licking fraud he is. Good job, Billy!! You just listed off almost every TRUanon kook talking point off X/Twitter!!!
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Post by Captain Obvious on Apr 15, 2024 10:56:49 GMT -4
How is that gaslighting, he flirts with every far right wingnut in NA. He won't answer any hard questions from the press and he can't get a security clearance. He's a lifelong politician pretending to be an outside voice, much like Trump who was bought and paid for by large RW donors in the US. Also, polls 18 months from an election mean nothing. Pee pee will have to actually spend time under the microscope before an election and be exposed for the Harper boot licking fraud he is. Good job, Billy!! You just listed off almost every TRUanon kook talking point off X/Twitter!!! You can keep living in your make believe world of pee pee internet memes instead of reality.
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Post by scotiahockey on Apr 15, 2024 10:57:58 GMT -4
It’s a long ways out but when there’s people I know who work on the hill for the federal government and they’re talking about how their time is ticking, with basically no expectation of winning… hoping they can get enough seats to keep their jobs, I think it’s clear to everyone that Trudeau is on his way out.
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Post by Captain Obvious on Apr 15, 2024 11:08:55 GMT -4
It’s a long ways out but when there’s people I know who work on the hill for the federal government and they’re talking about how their time is ticking, with basically no expectation of winning… hoping they can get enough seats to keep their jobs, I think it’s clear to everyone that Trudeau is on his way out. How is it clear when he has shown no indication that he is leaving?
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