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Post by themandalorian on Sept 18, 2021 14:59:44 GMT -4
After getting the go ahead from MikeC on whether it would be okay to start this thread I have finally decided to start it up.... so if it all goes to sh*t blame him  .
Back in August I kind of wanted to start this especially with the NS election going on and to my surprise the PCs actually not only won but won with a majority. I'm right of center which I have mentioned on the now defunct orange man thread but I really feel that Houston won in Nova Scotia because he was able to run to the left of Rankin and the Liberals with respect to health care which was the defining issue IMO of the campaign- when a man in Dartmouth has to wait hours for an ambulance which has to come all the way from Parrsboro you know you have a problem.
I meant to start this earlier especially with the election coming on Monday but I've been busy with my daughter from NY home finally.
I'm opening this thread to give posters a chance to talk over issues in a respectful manner and hopefully it can be that way.
The pessimist in me says Trudeau minority - if the Liberals of now were the Liberals of 20 years ago I think they would win in an absolute landslide but those days are long over for now at least.
IMO there are three main factors at play.
1) PPC- I've been telling people I know who hate Trudeau but don't like O'Toole that a vote for Bernier is a vote for Trudeau. 2) Bloc- how much are they going to take away from Trudeau in Quebec?
3) NDP- will voters who want to vote NDP stay with Singh this time or go with Trudeau to keep O'Toole out?
Anyways this is the thread to talk politics if you dare, I ask that it remains respectful so the thread doesn't get shut down as the mods aren't going to let it get out of hand like the orange man thread did.
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Post by yesisaiditfirst on Sept 18, 2021 21:15:11 GMT -4
Here are my seat projections:
Liberal 148
Conservative 125
NDP 33
Bloc Quebecois 31
Green 2
There are some strange vote splits this time. Some comments.
This election is "time for a change light". The electorate is waiting for an alternative that excites people and it didn't produce.
That PPC vote may have started as some right wing fringe but it's a discontent vote in places it has grown. Protest votes left and right. For some of them it's a none of the above choice.
CPC has moved more to center and possibly does pick up some of the red Tories who didn't like Scheer or Harper. But in moving there they can't keep the extreme right. Not a bad thing because many red Tories won't party in the same tent with "deplorables" (Hillary's term). Having the PPC has distanced O'Toole from some of the wedge issues that sometimes stick to conservatives.
NDP vote is staying in polls around 21%. They aren't expecting anyone gets a majority and probably tired of being told they have to not vote for who they want but to save the country from a monster. Trudeau pulled it off twice but nobody is predicting the CPC winning which stunts their motivation to vote strategically.
The conservative party has a big problem. They are not relevant in urban areas. They don't win seats in cities. It's not changing. It will be really hard to win an election ever again without seats in all the major cities.
This is also a problem in provincial politics.
As long as the media is urban centered I do not see them getting a break there without drastic change in how they address issues.
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Post by hal on Sept 20, 2021 4:22:49 GMT -4
Well the Day has arrived .......regardless if you have any Political Affiliation or not ..... Please get out and Vote . If this time tomorrow , we are looking at a Liberal Minority again then a lot of people are going to wonder what the Hell , all this was for ?
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Post by Jack Bauer on Sept 20, 2021 8:19:29 GMT -4
Back in August I kind of wanted to start this especially with the NS election going on and to my surprise the PCs actually not only won but won with a majority. I'm right of center which I have mentioned on the now defunct orange man thread but I really feel that Houston won in Nova Scotia because he was able to run to the left of Rankin and the Liberals with respect to health care which was the defining issue IMO of the campaign- when a man in Dartmouth has to wait hours for an ambulance which has to come all the way from Parrsboro you know you have a problem. 3 things all went against Rankin over that last week. 2 health care disasters. The man who died with diabetes waiting in an ER and the man with the broken hip waiting for the ambulance with no ETA. And in the final few days...for some reason...his team thought throwing ScotiaPass at the electorate was going to win him fringe votes that shows how out of touch the Liberal organizers were with who was not already planning to vote Liberal. Luckily for us Tim Houston is more a traditional Conservative vs a CPC cut out like Doug Ford so we can likely expect similar handling of our finances and the pandemic as our provincial Conservatives are likely going to be similar to the McNeil government which appeared to be getting us back in the right track here in CB anyway where there's more development and attempts to modernize things then there really has been in 25-30 years. |
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Post by Jack Bauer on Sept 20, 2021 8:28:29 GMT -4
Well the Day has arrived .......regardless if you have any Political Affiliation or not ..... Please get out and Vote . If this time tomorrow , we are looking at a Liberal Minority again then a lot of people are going to wonder what the Hell , all this was for ? $1.1 billion over 2 elections to tell us we're a divided country as the fringe right somehow grows and the fringe left appears to lose interest. I honestly thought this is where Singh would gain some traction with voters. Yet its Max Bernier picking up those sick of the big 2 yet his party is basically the racist party of Canada with its xenophobic anti-immigration "pro-Canadian" MAGA like agenda. What an absolute embarrassment for both the Liberals and Conservatives. As long as the Federal Conservatives are full of the Reform party holdouts and still bringing up things like abortion and climate change denial its hard to take them seriously. And Trudeau is so unlikeable as a leader that people are only supporting him out of fear of how the CPC would actually govern. I expect nothing to change tonight. Trudeau minority. The NDP propping him up because of how extreme the other side is and the fact they again can't afford another quick election. In 2 years we're right back here spending $800 million to learn more of the same. |
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Post by Jack Bauer on Sept 20, 2021 8:32:14 GMT -4
The conservative party has a big problem. They are not relevant in urban areas. They don't win seats in cities. It's not changing. It will be really hard to win an election ever again without seats in all the major cities. This is also a problem in provincial politics. As long as the media is urban centered I do not see them getting a break there without drastic change in how they address issues. You nailed that. In NS every Liberal/NDP seat was in HRM/CBRM. Every Conservative seat was rural. Over time you can't expect a divide like that to be a good thing....its a huge sign of a broken system. Thats the divide in Canada right now. And these elections are just furthering the divide...not bringing anyone together. |
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Post by CrazyJoeDavola on Sept 20, 2021 8:49:50 GMT -4
The conservative party has a big problem. They are not relevant in urban areas. They don't win seats in cities. It's not changing. It will be really hard to win an election ever again without seats in all the major cities. This is also a problem in provincial politics. As long as the media is urban centered I do not see them getting a break there without drastic change in how they address issues. You nailed that. In NS every Liberal/NDP seat was in HRM/CBRM. Every Conservative seat was rural. Over time you can't expect a divide like that to be a good thing....its a huge sign of a broken system. Thats the divide in Canada right now. And these elections are just furthering the divide...not bringing anyone together. Society is getting dumbed down at a rapid pace. Idiots used to be 1-offs in each community who were largely ignored. Now they've all found each other primarily due to the Internet, and have a false sense of confidence that what they believe is right. Then other dumb people who don't like conforming to a functioning society join them, and so on. We are headed to a point where the people who want no laws, no government interference, blatant bigotry, and all the weapons you can collect, will need to be given their own Country. This "FREEDOM!" position is so incredibly dumb re: guns and vaccines. I don't see how they will be able to co-exist with the 60-70% of human beings who use facts and common sense most of the time. (note: not a dig at rural NS'ers, just the far right movement in general). |
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Post by Captain Obvious on Sept 20, 2021 10:31:40 GMT -4
You nailed that. In NS every Liberal/NDP seat was in HRM/CBRM. Every Conservative seat was rural. Over time you can't expect a divide like that to be a good thing....its a huge sign of a broken system. Thats the divide in Canada right now. And these elections are just furthering the divide...not bringing anyone together. Society is getting dumbed down at a rapid pace. Idiots used to be 1-offs in each community who were largely ignored. Now they've all found each other primarily due to the Internet, and have a false sense of confidence that what they believe is right. Then other dumb people who don't like conforming to a functioning society join them, and so on. We are headed to a point where the people who want no laws, no government interference, blatant bigotry, and all the weapons you can collect, will need to be given their own Country. This "FREEDOM!" position is so incredibly dumb re: guns and vaccines. I don't see how they will be able to co-exist with the 60-70% of human beings who use facts and common sense most of the time. (note: not a dig at rural NS'ers, just the far right movement in general). I still think those folks are a tiny minority, joined by a few frustrated by Covid restrictions and lashing out at the wrong people. The stupid part is they are joining those contributing to their frustrations. |
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Post by lirette on Sept 20, 2021 13:04:50 GMT -4
Well the Day has arrived .......regardless if you have any Political Affiliation or not ..... Please get out and Vote . If this time tomorrow , we are looking at a Liberal Minority again then a lot of people are going to wonder what the Hell , all this was for ? $1.1 billion over 2 elections to tell us we're a divided country as the fringe right somehow grows and the fringe left appears to lose interest. I honestly thought this is where Singh would gain some traction with voters. Yet its Max Bernier picking up those sick of the big 2 yet his party is basically the racist party of Canada with its xenophobic anti-immigration "pro-Canadian" MAGA like agenda. Singh is gaining some traction at least based on the polls & modelling that theyve released over the past few weeks. They may pick up an additional 7 seats. The problem with them is their vote is extremely inefficient with our current system. Their presence in Atlantic Canada is almost non existent. They are polling sometimes as high as 22% but may only end up with 8-10% of the seats. Similarly the PPC is hitting around 5% in most of the polls but is highly unlikely to win any seats including their own leaders (again), although I wouldnt be totally shocked to see them squeak out 1 seat. |
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Post by Captain Obvious on Sept 20, 2021 13:21:33 GMT -4
$1.1 billion over 2 elections to tell us we're a divided country as the fringe right somehow grows and the fringe left appears to lose interest. I honestly thought this is where Singh would gain some traction with voters. Yet its Max Bernier picking up those sick of the big 2 yet his party is basically the racist party of Canada with its xenophobic anti-immigration "pro-Canadian" MAGA like agenda. Singh is gaining some traction at least based on the polls & modelling that theyve released over the past few weeks. They may pick up an additional 7 seats. The problem with them is their vote is extremely inefficient with our current system. Their presence in Atlantic Canada is almost non existent. They are polling sometimes as high as 22% but may only end up with 8-10% of the seats. Similarly the PPC is hitting around 5% in most of the polls but is highly unlikely to win any seats including their own leaders (again), although I wouldnt be totally shocked to see them squeak out 1 seat. I'm surprised, but not really at seeing the support for PPC, it's a fringe party like the fringe part of the GOP in the US, it's kind of UNCanadian. Even the PC has views that are not really part of what we stand for as Canadians. They skirted a lot of Covid/vaccine/mask issues and a lot of their candidates are unvaccinated and seems to love pandering to the no vaccine/mask crowd for votes. I think Trudeau and the Liberals should have hammered the PC and PPC a lot harder on the Covid topics and their push back on the money spent in the spring of 2020 to help individuals and businesses. |
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Post by Jack Bauer on Sept 20, 2021 13:42:53 GMT -4
$1.1 billion over 2 elections to tell us we're a divided country as the fringe right somehow grows and the fringe left appears to lose interest. I honestly thought this is where Singh would gain some traction with voters. Yet its Max Bernier picking up those sick of the big 2 yet his party is basically the racist party of Canada with its xenophobic anti-immigration "pro-Canadian" MAGA like agenda. Singh is gaining some traction at least based on the polls & modelling that theyve released over the past few weeks. They may pick up an additional 7 seats. The problem with them is their vote is extremely inefficient with our current system. Their presence in Atlantic Canada is almost non existent. They are polling sometimes as high as 22% but may only end up with 8-10% of the seats. Similarly the PPC is hitting around 5% in most of the polls but is highly unlikely to win any seats including their own leaders (again), although I wouldnt be totally shocked to see them squeak out 1 seat. Yeah by traction I was talking more seats. They're going to add a few but not enough to make any progress against the big 2 as too many areas of the country are hardcore red or blue. And i'm not even a huge NDP supporter...but I do believe a Liberal/NDP coalition is a better government for most Canadians then a CPC/Bloq. Seeing a lot of media dumping on strategic voting today but I dont know how else to look at it. If I don't support Trudeau I am basically supporting an O'Toole led country which I dont see how I could honestly support a party where the party itself doesnt even have a vision that aligns with its leader. There is no 3rd/4th option. Even the PPC is fighting for 1 seat. Not for Prime Minister. But to have 1 seat out of the 350+ we're electing. Certainly seems like enough NDP retain that we're back in the same situation we were before this election. And the more leaders like Trudeau basically use elections to ask for spending permission and dont get true mandates then more divisive our politics is going to become for the immediate future. There's no way he can view another minority as a victory. He will still need Singh's permission to do anything. But thats not necessarily a bad thing. Unless you're CPC/PPC in which case its a pretty shitty outcome. |
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Post by Jack Bauer on Sept 20, 2021 13:52:27 GMT -4
Singh is gaining some traction at least based on the polls & modelling that theyve released over the past few weeks. They may pick up an additional 7 seats. The problem with them is their vote is extremely inefficient with our current system. Their presence in Atlantic Canada is almost non existent. They are polling sometimes as high as 22% but may only end up with 8-10% of the seats. Similarly the PPC is hitting around 5% in most of the polls but is highly unlikely to win any seats including their own leaders (again), although I wouldnt be totally shocked to see them squeak out 1 seat. I'm surprised, but not really at seeing the support for PPC, it's a fringe party like the fringe part of the GOP in the US, it's kind of UNCanadian. Even the PC has views that are not really part of what we stand for as Canadians. They skirted a lot of Covid/vaccine/mask issues and a lot of their candidates are unvaccinated and seems to love pandering to the no vaccine/mask crowd for votes. I think Trudeau and the Liberals should have hammered the PC and PPC a lot harder on the Covid topics and their push back on the money spent in the spring of 2020 to help individuals and businesses. We're past a point where you relentlessly hammer the other side. The media cycle means people dont care enough and you actually end up burning out your side and energizing the other. Fact is that CERB was basically an example of our minority working for Canadians. Liberals wanted lower payments. NDP wanted more. So combined they negotiated what CERB ended up being and the NDP's input put more money into the economy and helping people keep mortgages and keeping them off of provincial welfare. Now the right wing hears this and says that all only hurt Canadians as we created a system ripe for abuse and have killed our retail industry with a lack of bodies thanks to the fact CERB was easy to get on for most people and put more money in their pockets then working would have. All while racking up historical debt. The fact that its voting day and we're still on the same talking points we have been for seemingly 18 months now tells me to expect a similar outcome as last time. Only with even more people pissed off at the results...including millions who will vote Liberals...because of the fear of what an O'Toole led government could mean. |
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Post by Reesor on Sept 20, 2021 14:12:02 GMT -4
338canada.com/12008e.htmThat's my riding, and it's voting tendencies. I see a lot of discussion on voting strategically. It all depends on your riding and its history. 338 is projecting a 94% chance of the liberal candidate winning Sackville. But hypothetically, if it was closer, and the NDP had a shot at winning Sackville/Preston/Chezzetcook, then voting for NDP could take a seat away from the Liberals, which realistically would only help the CPC nationally. If you were NDP leaning, you have two options if you considered the Liberals the 2nd best option. You can vote Liberal to help ensure the CPC doesn't get in power. Or, you can ride the NDP train and not care about which other party gets in. The only way NDP gains momentum is by voting for them. More votes = more hype, which = more votes, which = more sponsorship money, which = more exposure, which = more votes.... so on and so on. Politics in a democracy are emotionally draining. But it's better than not having a democracy.
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Post by themandalorian on Sept 20, 2021 18:47:50 GMT -4
Less than an hour until the polls close...
It is going to be interesting to see how well the PPC does tonight.
I've assumed their vote is going to be from right leaning voters who don't find O'Toole conservative enough and/or are against vaccines/masks/vaccine passports. I've told some that I know personally that their vote just keeps Trudeau in power and I hope they enjoy their tax hike.
However I've heard from my daughters that there are a number of young people that they know who would most likely vote Liberal/NDP/Green but are voting PPC because they disagree with the vaccine mandate in order to get into bars/restaurants/etc.
Elections Canada really has dropped the ball on this election- last month we received out voter cards at least a week before the election and as of today still hadn't received it. Voting would normally be in and out fairly quickly but the four of us all had to register and there were a lot of other people having to wait when we managed to vote.
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Post by scotiahockey on Sept 20, 2021 23:29:24 GMT -4
Votes are still coming in and we may not know exactly how it all plays out for a few days but the result is exactly as I expected. A Liberal Minority. I’m interested in seeing how all the percentages shake out once it’s all said and done but we may end up back in the same spot in a couple of years.
If you’re the Conservatives, I don’t really know where you go from here. Andrew Scheer gained seats but was considered a failure. O’Toole may gain some seats but I also don’t know that you can consider him a success. There’s a lot of flip flopping going on with his messages and direction, does he have the confidence of the voters/a clear direction for the party? They can’t possibly go through another leadership vote though.. at least in my eyes. I think they’re in trouble until they can get it all sorted out because O’Toole, really just isn’t a likeable person in my opinion but I don’t know how the party goes through the song and dance once again.
If the Liberals gain seats, is it a success? I guess in some sense it is but for me it was a waste of time. Although maybe with the results, they’ll choose to govern for as long as possible, instead of going through with this again.
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