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Post by yesisaiditfirst on Sept 23, 2021 10:53:15 GMT -4
The mainstream electable parties need to appeal to most Canadians as either a 1st or 2nd choice.
I dream of a day that social/wedge issues will not be the ballot question for any Canadian voting any of these parties.
What does that mean? It means you don't have to vote party X because party Y hasn't closed the door on some plank that is only there to gain some extremist votes.
If we had 3 strong parties that were legitimate in every part of the country - electable - based on current issues: affordability, healthcare, deficit control, workplace standards, trade, foreign affairs then all those parties would attract better candidates. And diverse candidates. Unfortunately the stigmatizing of conservative parties has kept the conservative minded candidates with the best ideas & some solutions on the sidelines. Why the heck does conservative fiscal policy have to marry conservative social policy to exist?
Some of us will not party in a tent with people who have extreme views. The leadership and caucus of conservative party needs to let go of the fringe that might support the PPC. Let the rock throwers do it somewhere else and the wedge politics will follow those disrupted. Then they need to recruit diverse & accomplished candidates with more than one purpose in life so they can win seats again in the big cities.
Until that can happen we will continue to have fringe politics and splintered minorities where each region has its own horse. BQ- Quebec LIB - Ontario/English East Con - Praries & NDP and Green - west coast.
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Post by themandalorian on Sept 23, 2021 19:28:05 GMT -4
There is talk about O'Tooles future. He has taken party policy to center and that upsets the reformist/alliance parts of party especially since it didn't move needle in seat count in Ontario & Quebec. The Pierre Polievre leadership campaign has been on behind scenes for weeks with old Harper people involved. They know Trudeau can't call an election for a couple of years now but it's probably a mistake to change leaders. Affordability is the underlying issue. Already was and will only be more pronounced. There is talk that Trudeau will not run again. Depends who you talk to but if he exits he will want some legacy to leave behind that gives him applause.....I'm just not sure where he pitches a legacy. He already burned his bridges on reconciliation and feminism. The Childcare program and pharmacare will come off as things he only did because minority govt & the NDP support. Does he venture back in waters of election reform? What better legacy can there be? He comes off as opportunistic right now and has been on that issue but if he were departing he could champion that issue. We have had 5 minority govts in last 7 elections. 5 since 2004 - that's only 17 years. Maybe he should be the one who seriously addresses that. He may gain traction considering he has now won back 2 back minorities with the 2nd most popular votes. Polievre is the guy I wanted to run for the leadership even more so than Peter Mackay even though he is a fellow Nova Scotian. I have a feeling he may not want to run for leader especially now with having two very small children in his family as his wife just delivered a couple weeks ago.
He checks off so many boxes though and as someone who dislikes Trudeau strongly I love watching Pierre getting under Justin's skin in question period.
Affordability is a huge issue- is the inflation we are seeing right now transitory and just due to supply chain bottlenecks because of Covid or is it going to stay around until central banks raise rates? If the BOC raises rates earlier and higher than expected you are going to see a lot of economic and social damage done as there are a lot of people able to only pay their mortgages due to the unusually low rates we have right now and there is a shortage of rental units available across the country. I know Trudeau says he doesn't pay attention to monetary policy and to be fair the majority of Canadians don't pay attention to it either but they will when rates go up and payments go up, refinancing becomes more expensive and our federal debt become harder to finance then Trudeau will have to care then.
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Post by Captain Obvious on Sept 24, 2021 7:42:48 GMT -4
There is talk about O'Tooles future. He has taken party policy to center and that upsets the reformist/alliance parts of party especially since it didn't move needle in seat count in Ontario & Quebec. The Pierre Polievre leadership campaign has been on behind scenes for weeks with old Harper people involved. They know Trudeau can't call an election for a couple of years now but it's probably a mistake to change leaders. Affordability is the underlying issue. Already was and will only be more pronounced. There is talk that Trudeau will not run again. Depends who you talk to but if he exits he will want some legacy to leave behind that gives him applause.....I'm just not sure where he pitches a legacy. He already burned his bridges on reconciliation and feminism. The Childcare program and pharmacare will come off as things he only did because minority govt & the NDP support. Does he venture back in waters of election reform? What better legacy can there be? He comes off as opportunistic right now and has been on that issue but if he were departing he could champion that issue. We have had 5 minority govts in last 7 elections. 5 since 2004 - that's only 17 years. Maybe he should be the one who seriously addresses that. He may gain traction considering he has now won back 2 back minorities with the 2nd most popular votes. Polievre is the guy I wanted to run for the leadership even more so than Peter Mackay even though he is a fellow Nova Scotian. I have a feeling he may not want to run for leader especially now with having two very small children in his family as his wife just delivered a couple weeks ago.
He checks off so many boxes though and as someone who dislikes Trudeau strongly I love watching Pierre getting under Justin's skin in question period.
Affordability is a huge issue- is the inflation we are seeing right now transitory and just due to supply chain bottlenecks because of Covid or is it going to stay around until central banks raise rates? If the BOC raises rates earlier and higher than expected you are going to see a lot of economic and social damage done as there are a lot of people able to only pay their mortgages due to the unusually low rates we have right now and there is a shortage of rental units available across the country. I know Trudeau says he doesn't pay attention to monetary policy and to be fair the majority of Canadians don't pay attention to it either but they will when rates go up and payments go up, refinancing becomes more expensive and our federal debt become harder to finance then Trudeau will have to care then.
Most damage from interest rates going up has nothing to do with politics, people over extend themselves and try and buy a 400k house when a 250-275k house is more than good enough. You have young people mid 20's making good money and they feel the need for two new cars, boat, jet ski, side by side and three trips a year, most of it on credit. Young people want everything NOW instead of working for it and getting it later, or starting with a "starter" house and working their way up to the bigger one. I have worked in finance for 12+ years and saw it first hand.
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Post by yesisaiditfirst on Sept 24, 2021 9:27:30 GMT -4
Polievre is the guy I wanted to run for the leadership even more so than Peter Mackay even though he is a fellow Nova Scotian. I have a feeling he may not want to run for leader especially now with having two very small children in his family as his wife just delivered a couple weeks ago.
He checks off so many boxes though and as someone who dislikes Trudeau strongly I love watching Pierre getting under Justin's skin in question period.
Affordability is a huge issue- is the inflation we are seeing right now transitory and just due to supply chain bottlenecks because of Covid or is it going to stay around until central banks raise rates? If the BOC raises rates earlier and higher than expected you are going to see a lot of economic and social damage done as there are a lot of people able to only pay their mortgages due to the unusually low rates we have right now and there is a shortage of rental units available across the country. I know Trudeau says he doesn't pay attention to monetary policy and to be fair the majority of Canadians don't pay attention to it either but they will when rates go up and payments go up, refinancing becomes more expensive and our federal debt become harder to finance then Trudeau will have to care then.
Most damage from interest rates going up has nothing to do with politics, people over extend themselves and try and buy a 400k house when a 250-275k house is more than good enough. You have young people mid 20's making good money and they feel the need for two new cars, boat, jet ski, side by side and three trips a year, most of it on credit. Young people want everything NOW instead of working for it and getting it later, or starting with a "starter" house and working their way up to the bigger one. I have worked in finance for 12+ years and saw it first hand. while that is true my nephew bought a house recently - they had looked at houses last year and they could afford under 300K but preferred around $250 or less....In the 6 months that they stalled making decision they were priced out of the ideal home and had to settle for smaller house just above $340. The market bumped up the prices significantly I believe because people from outside the region have started bidding on them. The starter house is just more. You get less house now. Three years ago it wasn't this way. The families with 2 new cars and over spend on a house though was a problem. I think now they need to make choice. Downsize the cars and make it work with less.
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Post by scotiahockey on Sept 24, 2021 10:49:04 GMT -4
Polievre is the guy I wanted to run for the leadership even more so than Peter Mackay even though he is a fellow Nova Scotian. I have a feeling he may not want to run for leader especially now with having two very small children in his family as his wife just delivered a couple weeks ago.
He checks off so many boxes though and as someone who dislikes Trudeau strongly I love watching Pierre getting under Justin's skin in question period.
Affordability is a huge issue- is the inflation we are seeing right now transitory and just due to supply chain bottlenecks because of Covid or is it going to stay around until central banks raise rates? If the BOC raises rates earlier and higher than expected you are going to see a lot of economic and social damage done as there are a lot of people able to only pay their mortgages due to the unusually low rates we have right now and there is a shortage of rental units available across the country. I know Trudeau says he doesn't pay attention to monetary policy and to be fair the majority of Canadians don't pay attention to it either but they will when rates go up and payments go up, refinancing becomes more expensive and our federal debt become harder to finance then Trudeau will have to care then.
Most damage from interest rates going up has nothing to do with politics, people over extend themselves and try and buy a 400k house when a 250-275k house is more than good enough. You have young people mid 20's making good money and they feel the need for two new cars, boat, jet ski, side by side and three trips a year, most of it on credit. Young people want everything NOW instead of working for it and getting it later, or starting with a "starter" house and working their way up to the bigger one. I have worked in finance for 12+ years and saw it first hand. Very real issue for a lot of young people. They over extend themselves and have no patience, is the brand new car nice? Absolutely, does it provide any more value than the 2008 Toyota Corolla you can get for 6K and are basically bullet proof as far as maintenance goes? For me it doesn’t, that’s why I don’t have a new car and very little interest in getting one. All the toys are nice but they don’t make sense financially for a lot of people, just because you can afford the monthly payment, doesn’t actually mean you can afford it. A lot of people don’t seem to realize this. Then they start spreading these payments out on toys for 7-8 years and they end up underwater on a car/toy that isn’t worth jack. I don’t know if it’s because it’s money and people are scared to talk about it, genuinely don’t understand/care or just try to keep up with the Jones but a lot of people make poor financial decisions and it ultimately ends up hurting them. We like to talk about how people don’t have money but for me, I look and see a lot of things people “need” that they don’t actually need. If they cut out these big expenses, they’d be better equipped to have the money for a down payment on a house/put away for retirement, etc, etc, I think everyone should be taking the time to understand their financials and allocate their resources to the appropriate places. Again it’s not something people talk about but it needs to happen. I know that I work with a lot of young people, that make 70-80-90K a year but spend it just as fast as they get it. I’ve had the conversations with them, tried to help them out but they want it now and don’t see the big picture/understand the power of compounding and what saving now means for them down the road. Personally, I’m a little too anal and tight with my money but I’m willing to live and spend more frugally now, to put myself in a better financial position down the road. I don’t want to work forever if I don’t have too. I buy what I want/need but I don’t spend wastefully, it takes a certain mindset to do this though. Most people can’t do it.
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Post by Captain Obvious on Sept 24, 2021 11:04:10 GMT -4
Most damage from interest rates going up has nothing to do with politics, people over extend themselves and try and buy a 400k house when a 250-275k house is more than good enough. You have young people mid 20's making good money and they feel the need for two new cars, boat, jet ski, side by side and three trips a year, most of it on credit. Young people want everything NOW instead of working for it and getting it later, or starting with a "starter" house and working their way up to the bigger one. I have worked in finance for 12+ years and saw it first hand. Very real issue for a lot of young people. They over extend themselves and have no patience, is the brand new car nice? Absolutely, does it provide any more value than the 2008 Toyota Corolla you can get for 6K and are basically bullet proof as far as maintenance goes? For me it doesn’t, that’s why I don’t have a new car and very little interest in getting one. All the toys are nice but they don’t make sense financially for a lot of people, just because you can afford the monthly payment, doesn’t actually mean you can afford it. A lot of people don’t seem to realize this. Then they start spreading these payments out on toys for 7-8 years and they end up underwater on a car/toy that isn’t worth jack. I don’t know if it’s because it’s money and people are scared to talk about it, genuinely don’t understand/care or just try to keep up with the Jones but a lot of people make poor financial decisions and it ultimately ends up hurting them. We like to talk about how people don’t have money but for me, I look and see a lot of things people “need” that they don’t actually need. If they cut out these big expenses, they’d be better equipped to have the money for a down payment on a house/put away for retirement, etc, etc, I think everyone should be taking the time to understand their financials and allocate their resources to the appropriate places. Again it’s not something people talk about but it needs to happen. I know that I work with a lot of young people, that make 70-80-90K a year but spend it just as fast as they get it. I’ve had the conversations with them, tried to help them out but they want it now and don’t see the big picture/understand the power of compounding and what saving now means for them down the road. Personally, I’m a little too anal and tight with my money but I’m willing to live and spend more frugally now, to put myself in a better financial position down the road. I don’t want to work forever if I don’t have too. I buy what I want/need but I don’t spend wastefully, it takes a certain mindset to do this though. Most people can’t do it. Another side of it is, maybe they can afford all the payments on sunny days, but if one of the two gets sick or loses their job, they are instantly running under water. As you said, just because you can afford another payment doesn't make it a good buy.
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Post by themandalorian on Jul 8, 2022 18:45:52 GMT -4
Hearing about the inconvenience going on today with the POS terminals being down with the Rogers disruption as well as other operations reminds me why this "boomer" , actually I'm 57 so too young to be a boomer, uses cash as much as possible.
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Post by Jacques Strap on Jul 8, 2022 19:36:39 GMT -4
Hearing about the inconvenience going on today with the POS terminals being down with the Rogers disruption as well as other operations reminds me why this "boomer" , actually I'm 57 so too young to be a boomer, uses cash as much as possible.
I am close to your age and I guess I am guilty of relying on debit all the time. Makes you think that it would probably be wise of everyone to stash some cash aside somewhere incase this type of thing happens. I guess that is probably an obvious thing to think of, but does many people do it.
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Post by themandalorian on Jul 8, 2022 19:51:14 GMT -4
Hearing about the inconvenience going on today with the POS terminals being down with the Rogers disruption as well as other operations reminds me why this "boomer" , actually I'm 57 so too young to be a boomer, uses cash as much as possible.
I am close to your age and I guess I am guilty of relying on debit all the time. Makes you think that it would probably be wise of everyone to stash some cash aside somewhere incase this type of thing happens. I guess that is probably an obvious thing to think of, but does many people do it. My wife and I use our joint credit card for groceries and restaurants for points used for travel- we just plundered the points we had built up over the years because while we were away visiting one daughter in Thailand Australia opened up and we had the chance to visit our other daughter who we hadn't seen in person since 2018- learned a lot about geography- it's an 11 hour flight between Bangkok, Thailand and Sydney, Australia.
Anything that I can't use my points credit card for I use cash simply because I don't feel like paying anymore service charges to a bank- my girls make fun of me for it but it's my system and it works.
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Post by themandalorian on Jul 8, 2022 20:06:24 GMT -4
So it appears that Elon Musk is on the verge of officially reneging on his offer to buy Twitter due to Twitter not releasing how many users are bots. His offer was at appx $54.00 and as of today the share price is at $36.81 so on the surface I can't say I blame him.
I think Elon should concentrate on Tesla and Spacex, just my opinion.
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Post by yesisaiditfirst on Jul 9, 2022 5:46:40 GMT -4
Mega level when a major Telcom goes down something will not work and someone will be inconvenienced.
What we can do to guard against it: - always have access to some cash the same as if the power might go out. - don't let your car tank run below half especially if you travel. Just like bank machines that had $ in them we sometime get runs on fuel and if you generally go cashless or low cash that's one item that can dry your contingency very fast - it's also possible in a tech outage retailer delivery schedules mess up. - avoid bundle your internet/home phone/ wifi and cell provider all with same company. Would suck if all those were Rogers right now. - have a contingency to get info about outages - access to Twitter feed etc so you are not left wondering - usually find out there before a confirmed source - don't assume credit cards will always work - if that establishment loses internet too or power then it won't work unless they still swipe cards with the signature on paper and they are very trusting - keep a bus ticket or change just in case you need it - when things like transit go digital we will find this only gets worse, but convenient all the other days - download important documents you may need - like hockey tickets, airplane tickets and itineraries- vaccine status, etc...Don't leave them on the cloud...store more than 3 days in your in box - because in an emergency the cloud will be hard to access - it's expensive but sometimes having relationships with 2 banks has bailed me out. If one is down (it happens) maybe the other is not. Even if a credit card with one and interac with the other. - if you carry cash don't keep it all in one place. Carry just what you need. If you lose a wallet, purse, get mugged and lose it all then you may as well have monopoly money.
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Post by themandalorian on Aug 1, 2022 19:48:07 GMT -4
Well it took almost 21 years but the CIA finally got the brains of Al Qaeda Ayman Al Zawahiri- Biden announcing that he was killed by a CIA drone strike.
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Post by themandalorian on Aug 7, 2022 19:27:51 GMT -4
Anyone think we may get yet another federal election that isn't needed?
I'm gonna respond to some of Kinsella's points in the article:
1) Poilievre is unlikeable ... to Liberals, YES he is - my next door neighbor ( hardcore Liberal supporter) hates him, says Charest or Brown would be better candidates to which I reply that if I didn't know any better I would say Jean Charest was convinced to run by the Liberals as a block on Poilievre and that Charest is more corrupt than Justin Trudeau is. Brown messed up and broke numerous Elections Canada rules. A lot of People's Party support last year was from 18-29 year olds who were frustrated with the lockdowns and mandates and Poileivre seems to be picking up on some of that vote and polls have shown recently where Singh's support among that voting group has been going to Poilievre. Kinsella talks about WEF conspiracy - the WEF has some crap on its website and video of policy of its meetings that should never see the light of day as far as being put into practice.
2) I agree somewhat here - inflation is brutal in Canada but it is high elsewhere in the world as well because most Western governments overspent to cover the gap brought on by Covid, these spending sprees were financed by money creation as central bank governors misjudged how much could be created without causing inflation and they are all using the excuse that while inflation is bad within their own countries, it is also bad elsewhere so not our fault even though it is. The problem is that too many people are falling for what Trudeau is saying.
3) Our economy is stagnating right now but the U.S. economy is still going - it will depend on how long American consumers can keep going with handling inflation and how rate hikes hit the U.S. economy. If the central question in a Canadian campaign becomes the economy and how bad it is then advantage for Poilievre and more reason for Trudeau to get ahead of it by calling a surprise election before it really takes hold.
4) Trudeau and the Liberals own the disgrace at the airports- my wife and I were lucky to get through Pearson a couple months ago relatively unscathed. My daughters who live abroad are coming home this week- my daughter who lives in New York , she and her fiancee who is from here didn't want to deal with Toronto or Montreal at all and unfortunately there are currently no direct flights from NY at all so they are driving down to Philly and flying American to get home directly. My other daughters are flying from Thailand and Australia and they are meeting up in Singapore, going to Frankfurt and flying directly to Halifax from there. The video that Ryan Whitney put out a couple months ago on how bad his experience was is embarrassing for Canadian tourism and the attitude coming from the federal government is WTF cares. And then you take into account passports- I'm just glad I don't have to renew for awhile. I don't believe it is that bad in Halifax but the stories with this seem to be coming from Montreal and Toronto, two large areas of Liberal support. The thing with this issue is that it makes waiting until 2025 more of a possibility and hope that people forget about it.
5) Covid- it isn't going away but at some point its usefulness for Trudeau is going to reach the law of diminishing returns unless a new variant that branches away from Omicron emerges but that doesn't appear to be showing on a short term basis.
6) Instability - we had an election last year during more dire circumstances. Australia just changed governments a month or so ago, the U.S. changed governments almost 2 years ago. Trudeau may try to play that card but I don't think he is that arrogant... but I could be wrong.
7) Legacy - If he waits too long Canada and most of the world are going to go through a recession which will not help him for 3 years down the road.
The one variable that wasn't mentioned in the article was Jagmeet Singh who I don't believe for a second is in any hurry for an election which is why we have the "arrangement" we have now.
Another one that was mentioned was with the possibility of the midterms in the states leading to a Republican win in the House and Senate in November and Trudeau tying Poilievre to the Republicans and using that- it has been used before but I don't think you'll see the Republicans win in November now in either house. Biden has had a good run lately and Trump is weighing candidates down- I watch Fox ( when my wife lets me ) and the trend since we have been home compared to when we took off for Thailand just before Christmas is so noticeable. Trump hasn't been live on the network in ages and even Hannity doesn't seem to waive the pompoms for him nearly as much. Trudeau would have to wait until November with this in mind and I really don't think the prospect of a late November/early December election really enthuses people especially when this will hopefully be the first Christmas in three years that will actually be normal... hopefully.
I don't think Trudeau relishes the idea of having to deal with Polievre in question period- if there is somebody who gets under Trudeau's skin it is PP.
I have a feeling we are going to see another September election... it will be interesting to see what Trudeau does when he gets back from Costa Rica. The first sign will be putting Singh on the spot....
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Post by Captain Obvious on Aug 7, 2022 19:55:01 GMT -4
Anyone think we may get yet another federal election that isn't needed?
I'm gonna respond to some of Kinsella's points in the article:
1) Poilievre is unlikeable ... to Liberals, YES he is - my next door neighbor ( hardcore Liberal supporter) hates him, says Charest or Brown would be better candidates to which I reply that if I didn't know any better I would say Jean Charest was convinced to run by the Liberals as a block on Poilievre and that Charest is more corrupt than Justin Trudeau is. Brown messed up and broke numerous Elections Canada rules. A lot of People's Party support last year was from 18-29 year olds who were frustrated with the lockdowns and mandates and Poileivre seems to be picking up on some of that vote and polls have shown recently where Singh's support among that voting group has been going to Poilievre. Kinsella talks about WEF conspiracy - the WEF has some crap on its website and video of policy of its meetings that should never see the light of day as far as being put into practice.
2) I agree somewhat here - inflation is brutal in Canada but it is high elsewhere in the world as well because most Western governments overspent to cover the gap brought on by Covid, these spending sprees were financed by money creation as central bank governors misjudged how much could be created without causing inflation and they are all using the excuse that while inflation is bad within their own countries, it is also bad elsewhere so not our fault even though it is. The problem is that too many people are falling for what Trudeau is saying.
3) Our economy is stagnating right now but the U.S. economy is still going - it will depend on how long American consumers can keep going with handling inflation and how rate hikes hit the U.S. economy. If the central question in a Canadian campaign becomes the economy and how bad it is then advantage for Poilievre and more reason for Trudeau to get ahead of it by calling a surprise election before it really takes hold.
4) Trudeau and the Liberals own the disgrace at the airports- my wife and I were lucky to get through Pearson a couple months ago relatively unscathed. My daughters who live abroad are coming home this week- my daughter who lives in New York , she and her fiancee who is from here didn't want to deal with Toronto or Montreal at all and unfortunately there are currently no direct flights from NY at all so they are driving down to Philly and flying American to get home directly. My other daughters are flying from Thailand and Australia and they are meeting up in Singapore, going to Frankfurt and flying directly to Halifax from there. The video that Ryan Whitney put out a couple months ago on how bad his experience was is embarrassing for Canadian tourism and the attitude coming from the federal government is WTF cares. And then you take into account passports- I'm just glad I don't have to renew for awhile. I don't believe it is that bad in Halifax but the stories with this seem to be coming from Montreal and Toronto, two large areas of Liberal support. The thing with this issue is that it makes waiting until 2025 more of a possibility and hope that people forget about it.
5) Covid- it isn't going away but at some point its usefulness for Trudeau is going to reach the law of diminishing returns unless a new variant that branches away from Omicron emerges but that doesn't appear to be showing on a short term basis.
6) Instability - we had an election last year during more dire circumstances. Australia just changed governments a month or so ago, the U.S. changed governments almost 2 years ago. Trudeau may try to play that card but I don't think he is that arrogant... but I could be wrong.
7) Legacy - If he waits too long Canada and most of the world are going to go through a recession which will not help him for 3 years down the road.
The one variable that wasn't mentioned in the article was Jagmeet Singh who I don't believe for a second is in any hurry for an election which is why we have the "arrangement" we have now.
Another one that was mentioned was with the possibility of the midterms in the states leading to a Republican win in the House and Senate in November and Trudeau tying Poilievre to the Republicans and using that- it has been used before but I don't think you'll see the Republicans win in November now in either house. Biden has had a good run lately and Trump is weighing candidates down- I watch Fox ( when my wife lets me ) and the trend since we have been home compared to when we took off for Thailand just before Christmas is so noticeable. Trump hasn't been live on the network in ages and even Hannity doesn't seem to waive the pompoms for him nearly as much. Trudeau would have to wait until November with this in mind and I really don't think the prospect of a late November/early December election really enthuses people especially when this will hopefully be the first Christmas in three years that will actually be normal... hopefully. I don't think Trudeau relishes the idea of having to deal with Polievre in question period- if there is somebody who gets under Trudeau's skin it is PP.
I have a feeling we are going to see another September election... it will be interesting to see what Trudeau does when he gets back from Costa Rica. The first sign will be putting Singh on the spot....
Not sure how governments are to blame for inflation, to me it's pretty clear...most of inflation is based on two factors... 1-post Covid pent up demand, basically people wanting to travel and "consume" as things open up creating a bigger demand than supply in some cases. 2-Some gouging by big businesses as a result of point #1. Oil companies are the worst in this, the barrel of oil is at the level it was 5 years ago but the cost at the pump is 50% higher...and they have record profits. This is not a Canadian thing, it's a thing across all modern countries. In terms of airports and airlines...it goes back to the ramp up after Covid reopen...the airports and airlines lost a ton of folks who got other(better?) jobs and now they have a manpower shortage to fill, which doesn't happen overnight.
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Post by themandalorian on Aug 7, 2022 20:29:55 GMT -4
Anyone think we may get yet another federal election that isn't needed?
I'm gonna respond to some of Kinsella's points in the article:
1) Poilievre is unlikeable ... to Liberals, YES he is - my next door neighbor ( hardcore Liberal supporter) hates him, says Charest or Brown would be better candidates to which I reply that if I didn't know any better I would say Jean Charest was convinced to run by the Liberals as a block on Poilievre and that Charest is more corrupt than Justin Trudeau is. Brown messed up and broke numerous Elections Canada rules. A lot of People's Party support last year was from 18-29 year olds who were frustrated with the lockdowns and mandates and Poileivre seems to be picking up on some of that vote and polls have shown recently where Singh's support among that voting group has been going to Poilievre. Kinsella talks about WEF conspiracy - the WEF has some crap on its website and video of policy of its meetings that should never see the light of day as far as being put into practice.
2) I agree somewhat here - inflation is brutal in Canada but it is high elsewhere in the world as well because most Western governments overspent to cover the gap brought on by Covid, these spending sprees were financed by money creation as central bank governors misjudged how much could be created without causing inflation and they are all using the excuse that while inflation is bad within their own countries, it is also bad elsewhere so not our fault even though it is. The problem is that too many people are falling for what Trudeau is saying.
3) Our economy is stagnating right now but the U.S. economy is still going - it will depend on how long American consumers can keep going with handling inflation and how rate hikes hit the U.S. economy. If the central question in a Canadian campaign becomes the economy and how bad it is then advantage for Poilievre and more reason for Trudeau to get ahead of it by calling a surprise election before it really takes hold.
4) Trudeau and the Liberals own the disgrace at the airports- my wife and I were lucky to get through Pearson a couple months ago relatively unscathed. My daughters who live abroad are coming home this week- my daughter who lives in New York , she and her fiancee who is from here didn't want to deal with Toronto or Montreal at all and unfortunately there are currently no direct flights from NY at all so they are driving down to Philly and flying American to get home directly. My other daughters are flying from Thailand and Australia and they are meeting up in Singapore, going to Frankfurt and flying directly to Halifax from there. The video that Ryan Whitney put out a couple months ago on how bad his experience was is embarrassing for Canadian tourism and the attitude coming from the federal government is WTF cares. And then you take into account passports- I'm just glad I don't have to renew for awhile. I don't believe it is that bad in Halifax but the stories with this seem to be coming from Montreal and Toronto, two large areas of Liberal support. The thing with this issue is that it makes waiting until 2025 more of a possibility and hope that people forget about it.
5) Covid- it isn't going away but at some point its usefulness for Trudeau is going to reach the law of diminishing returns unless a new variant that branches away from Omicron emerges but that doesn't appear to be showing on a short term basis.
6) Instability - we had an election last year during more dire circumstances. Australia just changed governments a month or so ago, the U.S. changed governments almost 2 years ago. Trudeau may try to play that card but I don't think he is that arrogant... but I could be wrong.
7) Legacy - If he waits too long Canada and most of the world are going to go through a recession which will not help him for 3 years down the road.
The one variable that wasn't mentioned in the article was Jagmeet Singh who I don't believe for a second is in any hurry for an election which is why we have the "arrangement" we have now.
Another one that was mentioned was with the possibility of the midterms in the states leading to a Republican win in the House and Senate in November and Trudeau tying Poilievre to the Republicans and using that- it has been used before but I don't think you'll see the Republicans win in November now in either house. Biden has had a good run lately and Trump is weighing candidates down- I watch Fox ( when my wife lets me ) and the trend since we have been home compared to when we took off for Thailand just before Christmas is so noticeable. Trump hasn't been live on the network in ages and even Hannity doesn't seem to waive the pompoms for him nearly as much. Trudeau would have to wait until November with this in mind and I really don't think the prospect of a late November/early December election really enthuses people especially when this will hopefully be the first Christmas in three years that will actually be normal... hopefully. I don't think Trudeau relishes the idea of having to deal with Polievre in question period- if there is somebody who gets under Trudeau's skin it is PP.
I have a feeling we are going to see another September election... it will be interesting to see what Trudeau does when he gets back from Costa Rica. The first sign will be putting Singh on the spot....
Not sure how governments are to blame for inflation, to me it's pretty clear...most of inflation is based on two factors... 1-post Covid pent up demand, basically people wanting to travel and "consume" as things open up creating a bigger demand than supply in some cases. 2-Some gouging by big businesses as a result of point #1. Oil companies are the worst in this, the barrel of oil is at the level it was 5 years ago but the cost at the pump is 50% higher...and they have record profits. This is not a Canadian thing, it's a thing across all modern countries. In terms of airports and airlines...it goes back to the ramp up after Covid reopen...the airports and airlines lost a ton of folks who got other(better?) jobs and now they have a manpower shortage to fill, which doesn't happen overnight. I'll respond backwards to your points
1) From December to May my wife and I flew through numerous airports just at the time when counties were opening up and with the exception of going through the testing in Phuket, Thailand we had no problems even in the smaller airports. Other countries around the world had the same situation and came through it- it is embarrassing when Pearson is named one of the worst airports in the world.
2) There was a gap that had to be covered when Covid hit in 2020- the problem is that governments overshot the runway and spent too much/ central banks created too much money and grade 11 economics comes into play - too much money chasing too few goods equals inflation. Supply chain issues are an issue of course but if there was enough will among North American governments to improve issues at West Coast ports that would solve a lot of issues- China's insistence on a zero Covid policy isn't helping but maybe the world shouldn't have the majority of its manufacturing being done there? Oil production in North America needs to be increased as it is considerably lower than where it should be at but companies aren't going to produce if it doesn't make financial sense to do, their profits notwithstanding.
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