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Post by jimmy on Sept 21, 2021 7:33:25 GMT -4
So, right back where we started ... the moral of the story? Nobody really likes the current Liberals very much, but none of the opposition parties are selling a package that has broad appeal to anyone but their own hardcore base, so we hold our noses and reluctantly send the Liberals back with another minority government.
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Post by Captain Obvious on Sept 21, 2021 7:37:23 GMT -4
Votes are still coming in and we may not know exactly how it all plays out for a few days but the result is exactly as I expected. A Liberal Minority. I’m interested in seeing how all the percentages shake out once it’s all said and done but we may end up back in the same spot in a couple of years. If you’re the Conservatives, I don’t really know where you go from here. Andrew Scheer gained seats but was considered a failure. O’Toole may gain some seats but I also don’t know that you can consider him a success. There’s a lot of flip flopping going on with his messages and direction, does he have the confidence of the voters/a clear direction for the party? They can’t possibly go through another leadership vote though.. at least in my eyes. I think they’re in trouble until they can get it all sorted out because O’Toole, really just isn’t a likeable person in my opinion but I don’t know how the party goes through the song and dance once again. If the Liberals gain seats, is it a success? I guess in some sense it is but for me it was a waste of time. Although maybe with the results, they’ll choose to govern for as long as possible, instead of going through with this again. With a 6 party system will we ever have an actual majority again? It starts with Quebec voting for their provincial interests over the country with the Bloc, in many parts of the country, the NDP is strong, others it's an afterthought. The Greens seem to be fading. PPC, will they still be relevant post Covid? The PPC and Green could become irrelevant but that still leaves 4...
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Post by Jack Bauer on Sept 21, 2021 7:43:40 GMT -4
Votes are still coming in and we may not know exactly how it all plays out for a few days but the result is exactly as I expected. A Liberal Minority. I’m interested in seeing how all the percentages shake out once it’s all said and done but we may end up back in the same spot in a couple of years. If you’re the Conservatives, I don’t really know where you go from here. Andrew Scheer gained seats but was considered a failure. O’Toole may gain some seats but I also don’t know that you can consider him a success. There’s a lot of flip flopping going on with his messages and direction, does he have the confidence of the voters/a clear direction for the party? They can’t possibly go through another leadership vote though.. at least in my eyes. I think they’re in trouble until they can get it all sorted out because O’Toole, really just isn’t a likeable person in my opinion but I don’t know how the party goes through the song and dance once again. If the Liberals gain seats, is it a success? I guess in some sense it is but for me it was a waste of time. Although maybe with the results, they’ll choose to govern for as long as possible, instead of going through with this again. With a 6 party system will we ever have an actual majority again? It starts with Quebec voting for their provincial interests over the country with the Bloc, in many parts of the country, the NDP is strong, others it's an afterthought. The Greens seem to be fading. PPC, will they still be relevant post Covid? The PPC and Green could become irrelevant but that still leaves 4... Of course we will see a majority again. Many seats were within a few % points with Libs/Cons the top 2. You flip 15-20 of those and its a majority the other way. Thats how Trudeau won in 2015.
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Post by Captain Obvious on Sept 21, 2021 7:55:14 GMT -4
With a 6 party system will we ever have an actual majority again? It starts with Quebec voting for their provincial interests over the country with the Bloc, in many parts of the country, the NDP is strong, others it's an afterthought. The Greens seem to be fading. PPC, will they still be relevant post Covid? The PPC and Green could become irrelevant but that still leaves 4... Of course we will see a majority again. Many seats were within a few % points with Libs/Cons the top 2. You flip 15-20 of those and its a majority the other way. Thats how Trudeau won in 2015. I don't see it short term, obviously it will happen again at some point, but having more fringe parties makes it harder.
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Post by Jack Bauer on Sept 21, 2021 8:33:56 GMT -4
Of course we will see a majority again. Many seats were within a few % points with Libs/Cons the top 2. You flip 15-20 of those and its a majority the other way. Thats how Trudeau won in 2015. I don't see it short term, obviously it will happen again at some point, but having more fringe parties makes it harder. Depending on how the next 2 years turns out I would not be shocked right now to see a majority in our next election one way or the other. Conservatives are either finally going to put up a leader with an agenda that doesnt appeal to their base only or Trudeau will walk to a majority. You also need to analyze where the fringe votes come from. No PPC voter is voting for Trudeau ever so thats a lost Conservative vote...in a country where they win the popular vote yet come in a clear 2nd in seats. The fact almost 50% of the popular vote is either Liberal or NDP is pretty telling and should send a message to the CPC that they cant just campaign to the science denying base they seem to crave or else they're about to lose an entire generation as the younger people starting to vote appear to be rejecting their entire ideology. Some years that 34% might win you an election...but as we see now...other years it has you in a clear 2nd place because our system doesn't care how much Western Canadians want to stay stuck in the 1980's policy wise because of their economy.
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Post by scotiahockey on Sept 21, 2021 8:39:04 GMT -4
Votes are still coming in and we may not know exactly how it all plays out for a few days but the result is exactly as I expected. A Liberal Minority. I’m interested in seeing how all the percentages shake out once it’s all said and done but we may end up back in the same spot in a couple of years. If you’re the Conservatives, I don’t really know where you go from here. Andrew Scheer gained seats but was considered a failure. O’Toole may gain some seats but I also don’t know that you can consider him a success. There’s a lot of flip flopping going on with his messages and direction, does he have the confidence of the voters/a clear direction for the party? They can’t possibly go through another leadership vote though.. at least in my eyes. I think they’re in trouble until they can get it all sorted out because O’Toole, really just isn’t a likeable person in my opinion but I don’t know how the party goes through the song and dance once again. If the Liberals gain seats, is it a success? I guess in some sense it is but for me it was a waste of time. Although maybe with the results, they’ll choose to govern for as long as possible, instead of going through with this again. With a 6 party system will we ever have an actual majority again? It starts with Quebec voting for their provincial interests over the country with the Bloc, in many parts of the country, the NDP is strong, others it's an afterthought. The Greens seem to be fading. PPC, will they still be relevant post Covid? The PPC and Green could become irrelevant but that still leaves 4... I think we do and I think it’s coming sooner than later but I don’t think it’s a Trudeau led Liberals that do it. I think it’s pretty clear what Canadians think of him at this point, I don’t know how much could change there. I also don’t think an O’Toole led Conservatives can do it. If at any point, there’s a new leader within either party, then I think we see another majority. I don’t necessarily think it’s next election (assuming that’s in 18-24 months) either but rather the one after that. I don’t think the 6 parties are any problem, the Green are fading but will still appeal to a demographic. In my opinion, the PPC will be relevant as long as the “Conservatives” have moved towards the centre. I don’t think anyone expects them to be as far right as maybe the PPC but if you consider yourself a True Blue Conservative, then they’re going to appeal to you more than the Conservatives are. The Bloc will continue to do what they do, I don’t think that’s any real issue, at some point a party will make ground there and pull seats back from them. The NDP are so left, that I think they lose a lot of people on their policies and it makes people vote Liberal, that and the thinking that there’s only 2 parties that can win.
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Post by Jack Bauer on Sept 21, 2021 8:39:57 GMT -4
So, right back where we started ... the moral of the story? Nobody really likes the current Liberals very much, but none of the opposition parties are selling a package that has broad appeal to anyone but their own hardcore base, so we hold our noses and reluctantly send the Liberals back with another minority government. Anyone who likes ANY of those offerings is drinking the kool aid. Singh was the most personable to me yet had no shot at forming a government because of the political landscape of the prairies. Trudeau is a mediocre leader. Yet the opposition being put up against him is even less then mediocre so here we are. O'Toole came out last night like he was still campaigning. It was laughable and delusional to hear some of it. But what i've come to expect from him and his party. They were an embarrassment these last few weeks. He had a wide open chance to use Jason Kenney as a punching bag last week and maybe win and he decided to stay silent. The only positive to come from yesterday is that O'Toole is not our PM today.
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Post by lirette on Sept 21, 2021 8:58:02 GMT -4
So, right back where we started ... the moral of the story? Nobody really likes the current Liberals very much, but none of the opposition parties are selling a package that has broad appeal to anyone but their own hardcore base, so we hold our noses and reluctantly send the Liberals back with another minority government. The only positive to come from yesterday is that O'Toole is not our PM today. Derek Sloan is also out of government, so you can find a few more positives if you look hard enough.
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Post by Jack Bauer on Sept 21, 2021 9:06:52 GMT -4
The only positive to come from yesterday is that O'Toole is not our PM today. Derek Sloan is also out of government, so you can find a few more positives if you look hard enough. Yeah thats definitely a positive. We need less Sloan's in our political process not more.
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Post by yesisaiditfirst on Sept 21, 2021 9:15:31 GMT -4
The election finished about what I expected. My seat projection is the 2nd post of this thread.
The PPC may have made a difference in exurban-rural ontario. The seats in Calgary and Edmonton that went Lib/NDP were leaning that way regardless. Alberta has progressive conservative type of conservatives in the cities. The same ones who want to force Kenney out. The NDP do well as the Notley footprint is strong in Edmonton. Most of us knew Calgary Skyview had Liberal leanings and they put all there resources in there.
I dont buy the argument outside of a few seats that PPC kept Conservatives out of seats. In some of the seats where PPC did well CPC votes held and some went up alot (Cumberland-Colchester)
Votes dont always go in straight lines.
If a seat is 11500 Liberal 9800 Conservative 4500 NDP and 1800 PPC that doesnt mean the real conservative vote is 9800+1800= 11600.
Some of those voters are none of the above voters. Some may lean Liberal but be fed up with Trudeau. There is some of that but the PPC just gave them another choice. If PPC werent fielding a candidate they may not have even voted. And same goes for how lots of green voters not voting Liberal.
It sounds good in theory but real voters dont stay right or left and many bounce around. They dont see symmetries among parties the way experts think they do.
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Post by Smiley on Sept 21, 2021 14:08:47 GMT -4
Of course we will see a majority again. Many seats were within a few % points with Libs/Cons the top 2. You flip 15-20 of those and its a majority the other way. Thats how Trudeau won in 2015. I don't see it short term, obviously it will happen again at some point, but having more fringe parties makes it harder. The fringe parties "Might" make it harder but I think the challenge of a majority is more about not really understanding Canadians. Trudeau just makes his own life harder as he always does something to mess it up. There are lots of examples, but calling an early election and not having a plan going forward is a big one. He gave Canadians no reason to give him a majority, thus Canadians didn't give him one. Canadians were comfortable with the direction of the country and thus no changes needed. Trudeau isn't well liked, especially for a person who just "won" his 3rd election. I give him props for the work during the pandemic - but he did that in a minority so he completely misread his opinion polls and just thought if I call an election they will give me a majority. The Conservatives just can't get out of their own way as well when it comes to picking a leader. They continue to pander to their base instead of trying to broaden their base. Yes O'Toole tried to take a centrist approach, but he kept going back to hard right tactics / policies to appease the right base. Thus Canadian's didn't trust the shift to the center. It was also very easy to paint him with the Harper /Kenny brush so there was apprehension to his shift, and his patting Kenney on the back for his handling of the pandemic was brutal. The Con's had other options but went with Scheer light - and were given the same result as Scheer. Overall Canadians are more centrist / left: approx 60% of the vote tends to go to progressive parties. The Conservatives aren't going to lose to many seats in Alberta / SA if they actually elect a more centrist leader...but they could break into Ontario and Quebec. The next election will still probably be a minority gov't, but not a Liberal (if Trudeau is still running), but the path is there for a Majority (Conservatives or Liberals). I don't see PPC around long-term. This was their chance to break through but if there is no Covid next election than that anger might not be there. I don't see them as a new Reform party.
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Post by Captain Obvious on Sept 21, 2021 14:30:55 GMT -4
I don't see it short term, obviously it will happen again at some point, but having more fringe parties makes it harder. The fringe parties "Might" make it harder but I think the challenge of a majority is more about not really understanding Canadians. Trudeau just makes his own life harder as he always does something to mess it up. There are lots of examples, but calling an early election and not having a plan going forward is a big one. He gave Canadians no reason to give him a majority, thus Canadians didn't give him one. Canadians were comfortable with the direction of the country and thus no changes needed. Trudeau isn't well liked, especially for a person who just "won" his 3rd election. I give him props for the work during the pandemic - but he did that in a minority so he completely misread his opinion polls and just thought if I call an election they will give me a majority. The Conservatives just can't get out of their own way as well when it comes to picking a leader. They continue to pander to their base instead of trying to broaden their base. Yes O'Toole tried to take a centrist approach, but he kept going back to hard right tactics / policies to appease the right base. Thus Canadian's didn't trust the shift to the center. It was also very easy to paint him with the Harper /Kenny brush so there was apprehension to his shift, and his patting Kenney on the back for his handling of the pandemic was brutal. The Con's had other options but went with Scheer light - and were given the same result as Scheer. Overall Canadians are more centrist / left: approx 60% of the vote tends to go to progressive parties. The Conservatives aren't going to lose to many seats in Alberta / SA if they actually elect a more centrist leader...but they could break into Ontario and Quebec. The next election will still probably be a minority gov't, but not a Liberal (if Trudeau is still running), but the path is there for a Majority (Conservatives or Liberals). I don't see PPC around long-term. This was their chance to break through but if there is no Covid next election than that anger might not be there. I don't see them as a new Reform party. What the hell do you know? Aren't you living in Texas?
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Post by themandalorian on Sept 22, 2021 19:30:35 GMT -4
This is interesting, I didn't know Manny Pacquiao was already a senator in the Phillipines.
We'll wait and see how he does...
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Post by yesisaiditfirst on Sept 23, 2021 8:41:15 GMT -4
There is talk about O'Tooles future. He has taken party policy to center and that upsets the reformist/alliance parts of party especially since it didn't move needle in seat count in Ontario & Quebec. The Pierre Polievre leadership campaign has been on behind scenes for weeks with old Harper people involved. They know Trudeau can't call an election for a couple of years now but it's probably a mistake to change leaders.
Affordability is the underlying issue. Already was and will only be more pronounced.
There is talk that Trudeau will not run again. Depends who you talk to but if he exits he will want some legacy to leave behind that gives him applause.....I'm just not sure where he pitches a legacy. He already burned his bridges on reconciliation and feminism. The Childcare program and pharmacare will come off as things he only did because minority govt & the NDP support.
Does he venture back in waters of election reform? What better legacy can there be? He comes off as opportunistic right now and has been on that issue but if he were departing he could champion that issue.
We have had 5 minority govts in last 7 elections. 5 since 2004 - that's only 17 years. Maybe he should be the one who seriously addresses that. He may gain traction considering he has now won back 2 back minorities with the 2nd most popular votes.
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Post by lirette on Sept 23, 2021 9:07:42 GMT -4
There is talk about O'Tooles future. He has taken party policy to center and that upsets the reformist/alliance parts of party especially since it didn't move needle in seat count in Ontario & Quebec. The Pierre Polievre leadership campaign has been on behind scenes for weeks with old Harper people involved. They know Trudeau can't call an election for a couple of years now but it's probably a mistake to change leaders. Affordability is the underlying issue. Already was and will only be more pronounced. There is talk that Trudeau will not run again. Depends who you talk to but if he exits he will want some legacy to leave behind that gives him applause.....I'm just not sure where he pitches a legacy. He already burned his bridges on reconciliation and feminism. The Childcare program and pharmacare will come off as things he only did because minority govt & the NDP support. Does he venture back in waters of election reform? What better legacy can there be? He comes off as opportunistic right now and has been on that issue but if he were departing he could champion that issue. We have had 5 minority govts in last 7 elections. 5 since 2004 - that's only 17 years. Maybe he should be the one who seriously addresses that. He may gain traction considering he has now won back 2 back minorities with the 2nd most popular votes. It is interesting, because those who still argue for FPTP often say the benefit is that it tends to elect stronger, more stable majority governments. That's not what we are seeing. I do worry that the longer we keep this system in place, the more we continue to disenfranchise voters and the more we breed extremism. I think the only way the CPC finds their way into power again is to grow in Ontario and Quebec. I'm no political scientist, but if you want to win those votes in the GTA you aren't getting them by courting the social conservative right. If I were them I'd keep O'Toole and have him put his money where his mouth is when it comes to votes in the House of Commons. If he's truly a moderate and not just a pretend one during a campaign then let his record show it over the next 18 months and see if he can bring his party in that direction too. I can't imagine bringing in another new leader in a short time frame will net any different result. They don't have some amazing list of candidates waiting in the wings. I'd welcome Canada's 2nd largest party actually moving to the centre. Even 10 years ago we would have never heard the major parties discussing things like reconciliation, we have a long long way to go on that and many other progressive things, but the fact that they know they need to discuss it is because those things are popular amongst Canadians and we've moved them in that direction. How politics should work. Until they are actually serious about climate change and some other issues, I could never consciously vote for them, but I think we'd be a better country overall if they campaigned closer to say the provincial PC Party in NS for example. Pick a few key issues and re-identify themselves, Mental Health, Housing, Climate. Recycling the old "tax credits for the middle class" just isn't going to win new voters anymore. In Terms of JT & his legacy, I have no idea whether he truly cares about it or not, but if he does...get something done on election reform and do everything in your power to get clean drinking water to indigenous people in this country, along a whole bunch of the other asks from the truth and reconciliation commission. There has never been more appetite in this country for it than we've seen in this past year. Then step aside for Chrystia Freeland or Mark Carney or whoever its going to be, and they can campaign on other priorities like dental care or whatever it will be next.
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