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Post by catnut on Mar 4, 2016 10:50:25 GMT -4
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Post by Penguins23® on Mar 4, 2016 10:56:50 GMT -4
What CO is trying to say is click on the % tab. It can give you a more realistic look at the standings when not all teams have the same amount of games played. He's right when he says the Cats are "projected" to play Charlottetown in the first round.
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Post by catnut on Mar 4, 2016 11:11:05 GMT -4
What CO is trying to say is click on the % tab. It can give you a more realistic look at the standings when not all teams have the same amount of games played. He's right when he says the Cats are "projected" to play Charlottetown in the first round. That puts Drummondville behind Sherbrooke that has fewer points. But if the season were to end at this moment, which was his initial point, the Cats would be facing Chicoutimi, when using the tie-breaker rules of the Q.
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Post by Captain Obvious on Mar 4, 2016 11:37:15 GMT -4
What CO is trying to say is click on the % tab. It can give you a more realistic look at the standings when not all teams have the same amount of games played. He's right when he says the Cats are "projected" to play Charlottetown in the first round. That puts Drummondville behind Sherbrooke that has fewer points. But if the season were to end at this moment, which was his initial point, the Cats would be facing Chicoutimi, when using the tie-breaker rules of the Q. But the season won't end at the moment, teams will finish their schedule, that's why we are "projecting".
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Post by SteveUL on Mar 4, 2016 14:01:05 GMT -4
What CO is trying to say is click on the % tab. It can give you a more realistic look at the standings when not all teams have the same amount of games played. He's right when he says the Cats are "projected" to play Charlottetown in the first round. Sure ... but that PCT number that is shown in the standings today is in most cases not what I'd use to get a realistic projection for the next 5-8 games. For example ... Moncton has a PCT of 0.623 but the way they have played in the 2nd half I'd not rate them any higher than 0.500 the rest of the way. Charlottetown has been underachieving all year but recently seem to have put it together and are playing good hockey ... and so their 0.524 is probably low as they have played 0.700ish over their last 10. Those numbers are based on a full season and most teams aren't the same as they were in the first half, and so those rates are not realistic on what they are doing now. I think if you really want a good number to project with then take the last 20 games and project with that.
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Post by Penguins23® on Mar 4, 2016 14:12:48 GMT -4
What CO is trying to say is click on the % tab. It can give you a more realistic look at the standings when not all teams have the same amount of games played. He's right when he says the Cats are "projected" to play Charlottetown in the first round. Sure ... but that PCT number that is shown in the standings today is in most cases not what I'd use to get a realistic projection for the next 5-8 games. For example ... Moncton has a PCT of 0.623 but the way they have played in the 2nd half I'd not rate them any higher than 0.500 the rest of the way. Charlottetown has been underachieving all year but recently seem to have put it together and are playing good hockey ... and so their 0.524 is probably low as they have played 0.700ish over their last 10. Those numbers are based on a full season and most teams aren't the same as they were in the first half, and so those rates are not realistic on what they are doing now. I think if you really want a good number to project with then take the last 20 games and project with that. If you really wanted to project there's a heck of a lot more to it than that (home/away, opponents records, records vs. remaining opponents, recent trends, injuries, etc). I'm just saying that I see what Billy was saying and he's not wrong. Points percentage is a better "projection" than ending the season and ignoring games played. You're right that it boosts Sherbooke and Bathurst past Drummondville but it is what it is. You can't ignore the fact that they both have 2 games in hand on Drummondville. By purely looking at the standings(W-L-OTL-PTS-GP) with absolutely no other information available, would you bet money on Drummondville finishing ahead of Sherbrooke and Bathurst?
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Post by catnut on Mar 4, 2016 14:20:22 GMT -4
Sure ... but that PCT number that is shown in the standings today is in most cases not what I'd use to get a realistic projection for the next 5-8 games. For example ... Moncton has a PCT of 0.623 but the way they have played in the 2nd half I'd not rate them any higher than 0.500 the rest of the way. Charlottetown has been underachieving all year but recently seem to have put it together and are playing good hockey ... and so their 0.524 is probably low as they have played 0.700ish over their last 10. Those numbers are based on a full season and most teams aren't the same as they were in the first half, and so those rates are not realistic on what they are doing now. I think if you really want a good number to project with then take the last 20 games and project with that. If you really wanted to project there's a heck of a lot more to it than that (home/away, opponents records, records vs. remaining opponents, recent trends, injuries, etc). I'm just saying that I see what Billy was saying and he's not wrong. Points percentage is a better "projection" than ending the season and ignoring games played. You're right that it boosts Sherbooke and Bathurst past Drummondville but it is what it is. You can't ignore the fact that they both have 2 games in hand on Drummondville. By purely looking at the standings(W-L-OTL-PTS-GP) with absolutely no other information available, would you bet money on Drummondville finishing ahead of Sherbrooke and Bathurst? I agree things can change many times over the next two weeks. I was commenting on CO's assertion that as of today our opponent would be Charlottetown. However, according to the rules of the Q, TODAY our opponent would be Chicoutimi.
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Post by SteveUL on Mar 4, 2016 14:35:54 GMT -4
Sure ... but that PCT number that is shown in the standings today is in most cases not what I'd use to get a realistic projection for the next 5-8 games. For example ... Moncton has a PCT of 0.623 but the way they have played in the 2nd half I'd not rate them any higher than 0.500 the rest of the way. Charlottetown has been underachieving all year but recently seem to have put it together and are playing good hockey ... and so their 0.524 is probably low as they have played 0.700ish over their last 10. Those numbers are based on a full season and most teams aren't the same as they were in the first half, and so those rates are not realistic on what they are doing now. I think if you really want a good number to project with then take the last 20 games and project with that. If you really wanted to project there's a heck of a lot more to it than that (home/away, opponents records, records vs. remaining opponents, recent trends, injuries, etc). I'm just saying that I see what Billy was saying and he's not wrong. Points percentage is a better "projection" than ending the season and ignoring games played. You're right that it boosts Sherbooke and Bathurst past Drummondville but it is what it is. You can't ignore the fact that they both have 2 games in hand on Drummondville. By purely looking at the standings(W-L-OTL-PTS-GP) with absolutely no other information available, would you bet money on Drummondville finishing ahead of Sherbrooke and Bathurst? If I'm betting money on any team I'm doing more than just projecting from out-dated winning percentages. I'd look at Drum's schedule ... look at their last 10 and last 20 ... look at who is hurt and who might be back after missing awhile ... etc. But if I am just trying to get a sense of a final finish ... without placing bets ... then I'm doing less work and just working with a reliable rate. Even the last 10 games rate is better than the PCT shown for each team. Who is ignoring games at hand ? If I create a rate (say last 20) for Drum, Chic and Bat then I apply that rate over the number of games they have left ... and add that to the points they have now. You can go to the trouble of evaluating each team's remaining schedule and guess at wins and losses and come up with a final total, but that isn't really what we are trying to do here.
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Post by Penguins23® on Mar 4, 2016 14:42:25 GMT -4
If you really wanted to project there's a heck of a lot more to it than that (home/away, opponents records, records vs. remaining opponents, recent trends, injuries, etc). I'm just saying that I see what Billy was saying and he's not wrong. Points percentage is a better "projection" than ending the season and ignoring games played. You're right that it boosts Sherbooke and Bathurst past Drummondville but it is what it is. You can't ignore the fact that they both have 2 games in hand on Drummondville. By purely looking at the standings(W-L-OTL-PTS-GP) with absolutely no other information available, would you bet money on Drummondville finishing ahead of Sherbrooke and Bathurst? If I'm betting money on any team I'm doing more than just projecting from out-dated winning percentages. I'd look at Drum's schedule ... look at their last 10 and last 20 ... look at who is hurt and who might be back after missing awhile ... etc. But if I am just trying to get a sense of a final finish ... without placing bets ... then I'm doing less work and just working with a reliable rate. Even the last 10 games rate is better than the PCT shown for each team. Who is ignoring games at hand ? If I create a rate (say last 20) for Drum, Chic and Bat then I apply that rate over the number of games they have left ... and add that to the points they have now. You can go to the trouble of evaluating each team's remaining schedule and guess at wins and losses and come up with a final total, but that isn't really what we are trying to do here. Lol you just listed everything I said and said that's what you would do if you were projecting so I'm not really just what your point is. My point is simply this, point percentage is a better unit of measurement then points. That's it. That's all I'm saying. Billy said it first. I simple agreed. Follow along with your finger as you would say.
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Post by SteveUL on Mar 4, 2016 14:50:25 GMT -4
If I'm betting money on any team I'm doing more than just projecting from out-dated winning percentages. I'd look at Drum's schedule ... look at their last 10 and last 20 ... look at who is hurt and who might be back after missing awhile ... etc. But if I am just trying to get a sense of a final finish ... without placing bets ... then I'm doing less work and just working with a reliable rate. Even the last 10 games rate is better than the PCT shown for each team. Who is ignoring games at hand ? If I create a rate (say last 20) for Drum, Chic and Bat then I apply that rate over the number of games they have left ... and add that to the points they have now. You can go to the trouble of evaluating each team's remaining schedule and guess at wins and losses and come up with a final total, but that isn't really what we are trying to do here. Lol you just listed everything I said and said that's what you would do if you were projecting so I'm not really just what your point is. My point is simply this, point percentage is a better unit of measurement then points. That's it. That's all I'm saying. Billy said it first. I simple agreed. Follow along with your finger as you would say. No ... I said I would do that type of more detailed analysis if I was betting ... but I'm not much of a gambler when it comes to stuff like this. If I am just trying to get a sense of who our playoff opponent will be then I am just going to project based on an expected rate ... but not the rate that the Q calculates because it is not a realistic rate for predicting the final 5-8 games for each team. You clearly did not read what I said ... or didn't understand it.
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Post by SteveUL on Mar 4, 2016 15:15:43 GMT -4
If you just use the last 10 games for each team ... and project that winning % from their current points for games remaining ... we'd finish 6th with 82-83 pts ... and Chic would finish 11th. The margin between where Chic and Char finish is very close, but Char has the better W% in the last 10 so they get the nod.
The only real changes from the current standings would have SJ ahead of Shaw, and Drum falls to 15th and Bat and Sher each move up a rung, so Bat would get VD. If I'm Bat i'd take SJ or Shaw ... they have played SJ well all year.
We'd get Yannick Jean AGAIN!! and you know he is going to have somebody inside Garland's jersey.
Doing an analysis with the last 20 games as the rate is too much work for me ... last 10 will have to do.
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Post by npsh on Mar 4, 2016 16:01:07 GMT -4
I am trying to figure out the point of all this "back and forth" on first place knowing Cats chances of regaining first are very slim indeed and they will have their hands full getting beyond first round. Having said that, it is probably all I can contribute so best I don't read these posts anymore.
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Post by Penguins23® on Mar 4, 2016 16:11:06 GMT -4
I am trying to figure out the point of all this "back and forth" on first place knowing Cats chances of regaining first are very slim indeed and they will have their hands full getting beyond first round. Having said that, it is probably all I can contribute so best I don't read these posts anymore. There's about 20 or so active Moncton posters these days and 19 of us came to grips with the fact that the division title hopes were gone a few weeks ago. One poster felt the need to give daily updates on the "race" which is why this thread is still going in the FIRST PLACE.(pun intended) Finally, the thread's creator and main contributor(31 of the now 88 posts in this thread)has come to grips with the fact that the Wildcats are probably going to end up 6th or 7th so now the focus is going to be shifting to a much more interesting races, (6-7) and (10-11).
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Post by juliansteed on Mar 4, 2016 16:56:03 GMT -4
If I'm betting money on any team I'm doing more than just projecting from out-dated winning percentages. I'd look at Drum's schedule ... look at their last 10 and last 20 ... look at who is hurt and who might be back after missing awhile ... etc. But if I am just trying to get a sense of a final finish ... without placing bets ... then I'm doing less work and just working with a reliable rate. Even the last 10 games rate is better than the PCT shown for each team. Who is ignoring games at hand ? If I create a rate (say last 20) for Drum, Chic and Bat then I apply that rate over the number of games they have left ... and add that to the points they have now. You can go to the trouble of evaluating each team's remaining schedule and guess at wins and losses and come up with a final total, but that isn't really what we are trying to do here. Lol you just listed everything I said and said that's what you would do if you were projecting so I'm not really just what your point is. My point is simply this, point percentage is a better unit of measurement then points. That's it. That's all I'm saying. Billy said it first. I simple agreed. Follow along with your finger as you would say. I get what you guys are trying to say. I don't think there is really a right or wrong, but I tend to agree with you guys. I think use of the terms "first tie-break" and "point projection" might be where the communication is breaking down. Games played is not listed as a tie-breaker because at the end of the season, every team will have played the same number of games, so what would be the point? However during the season, if 2 teams have the same number of points but have played a different amount of games, it is entirely reasonable to assume that the team with more games remaining has a better chance of obtaining more points by the end of the season, thus making any tie-breaking method a moot point. That's just a simple, first glance approach, and not an in-depth analysis of who each team is playing and all the other details. Baseball (and I believe basketball) don't have these pseudo-wins/ties. Each game has a winner and a loser, so at the end of the season the team with more wins is ahead. However, in the meantime teams are awarded a half-game for every win, and lose a half-game for every loss as a method of determining who is in first place right now (which in the end doesn't really matter). MLB simply plays a tie-breaking game if 2 teams are tied for a playoff spot so they don't bother with any other tie-breaking rules. For hockey, I don't think anyone is suggesting to jump directly to point percentage. It should still be points first, but only look at games played as a guide when 2 teams are tied in points.
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Post by Kingrat on Mar 4, 2016 21:46:47 GMT -4
I have already stated on Titan board that I hope we finish 14th or 15th to face hopefully Saint John or Moncton and took a fair amount of criticism for being so negative ... I still look at this as a positive because we play well against both these teams plus the 4th or 5th overall pick is a bonus
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