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Post by statsman18 on Mar 28, 2023 9:39:41 GMT -4
Taking a (probably way too early) look around the rest of the league, here's where I see things for next year: Frontrunners: Victoriaville, Royun Contenders: Moncton, Rimouski, Chicoutimi, Drummondville Mid-Pack: SJ, Baie-Comeau, Cape Breton, Shawinigan, Blainville Rebuilding: Quebec, Sherbrooke, Gatineau, Bathurst, Val D'Or, Charlottetown All of this obviously impacts who is buying/selling over the summer. On paper, I don't think Victoriaville or Royun are out of reach (yet) but I would peg the Mooseheads a notch below in the "contenders" category for now. The two teams that I'm most curious about are Drummondville and Chicoutimi. The Volts have had a disappointing season but have always looked like they were lining up a run with their 04 group. Wouldn't be surprised to see them swing for the fences and bring in the hometown boy Ethan Gauthier. Chicoutimi have a really talented group of young forwards, and lot of draft capital this summer. If they can get Boisvert to report, they could choose to start their run a year early - upgrading the blueline and finding a goalie. This is a good analysis of how the league could play out for next year. However I think it’s slightly premature. I only say that because some teams could be way better then we think they are going to be as is. Only because of the obvious futures that should be coming back to some teams. For example there’s no way the Brunet deal from Rimouski to Victo is done. Also what is CB getting for the Langlois from Quebec. Because there is no way that trade is done either. I think Charlottetown is going get some key players too from Sherbrooke for Barbenec and maybe from Gatineau for Lapenna deal. Adding all that to the mix I think it very safe to say the Atlantic division isn’t going to be the push over it was this year. I think Bathurst and SJ will be the bottom feeders and everyone else fighting for top spot. I think Cape Breton will make a big jump next year. I also don’t think PEI will be considered a rebuild team, I think they’ll be mid pack. Now to address the Mooseheads next year. This team is going to lose 115 goals from the graduation of 3 20’s a L’Heureux alone. If Biasca moves on too there’s another 24 gone. Then we need to look at Dumais. I personally think he’ll be back but to what extent? He’s signed already and there’s no need to rush him back here at all. Does Columbus plan to give him 9 games maybe not but my bet will be he’s the last cut. So that would mean he misses the first few games. Obviously he’s not playing much if at all in December, so maybe only 50 games from him on the year. In saying all that is everyone confident in Crosby and Peitzsche going from 6 goal scores to 20 plus? If Crosby is looking to get drafted that’s the minimum he needs to do. As for Reece it seems like that might be a big ask. I will agree that the defence should be a strength especially if Whynot is back. Is that enough though? They really really really need to find diamonds in the ruff for the Euro draft. That’s no easy task. If they do find 1 solid euro at the 50ish pick and Biasca comes back they are a bit better shape. If Baisca doesn’t come back finding 2 will be very hard to do. Looking at it this way which I have been doing all along I think trading Dumais and Furlong and if he’s back Whynot at Christmas time might be the best move.
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Post by Herd Fan on Mar 28, 2023 10:16:06 GMT -4
All great points. Absolutely, futures will play a big role in the near future for the teams in Atlantic. This will make the Atlantic division fairly competitive.
We for sure are losing a lot of goals from those players moving on. It will be tough to fill these holes. Dumais will dominate as usual when here. I think Cam too will have to hit it big in the Junior A diamonds in the rough. Perhaps another Boucher type player. Id be surprised if Crosby is still here next year given the progression this year. He really got put on the back burner due to going for it this year. This I believe hasn't helped his development one little bit and will probably want out himself, if I were him. Peitzsche I think will do well taking on a bigger role. He played in a ton load of games this year avoiding being scratched even though his ice time was very low(impressive given how young he is). I am excited to see guys like Fontaine as I think guys like him could step in and contribute early in the year.
In terms of Euros, I really don't think Biasca is coming back. IMO, Moravec will return and take up 2 spots as a Euro and a 20. To Statmans point, Cam and staff will have to hit it big in the Euro draft. I cant see the D-core changing at all. Maybe Whynot does not return, but that will depend on if he returns in the playoffs and has a stellar finish. As it stands right now, that is not the case.
Your last point is very interesting with who to trade off at xmas. Time will tell if they have to do that or not. I struggle to see that happening, but who knows?
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Post by trueblue on Mar 28, 2023 10:38:59 GMT -4
We've been completely spoiled by this year's team in terms of offensive production - we are not going to score 300 goals next year no matter what additions we make BUT if our coaching staff can change our style of play to a more defensive one I think we might be okay. Think of the target being 160 goals against over the course of the season - which should be completely doable and provides a pretty good floor in terms of the standings.
If we balance the lines I actually love our depth down the middle - Vidicek as 1C, Cataford as 2C and MacPhee as 3C. Each of those three guys I could easily see taking steps forward, which gives us a really good spine. Always easier to bring in scoring wingers.
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Post by bois on Mar 28, 2023 10:40:38 GMT -4
I cannot see you bringing Moravec back to take two spots on a contender when he'd be a mid pairing dman assuming everyone else is back too
of course perhaps you actually move a young dman or two to address the holes that you will have up front
but plenty of time for you to worry about all that after the year is over
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Post by trueblue on Mar 28, 2023 10:45:27 GMT -4
I cannot see you bringing Moravec back to take two spots on a contender when he'd be a mid pairing dman assuming everyone else is back too of course perhaps you actually move a young dman or two to address the holes that you will have up front but plenty of time for you to worry about all that after the year is over Moravec has been on the top pair all year playing with Furlong. I've got no issue with him being back using a 20 + Euro slot. I do think it might be prudent to look at trading Jack Martin, especially if Whynot is back. If he can be packaged to bring back a middle-6 winger, I think you have to do it.
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Post by trueblue on Mar 28, 2023 11:07:59 GMT -4
One darkhorse name that I'll throw back out there for next year... James Chase? American winger who came up to training camp for 48 hours and doesn't have a NCAA commitment yet.
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Post by statsman18 on Mar 28, 2023 11:32:42 GMT -4
We've been completely spoiled by this year's team in terms of offensive production - we are not going to score 300 goals next year no matter what additions we make BUT if our coaching staff can change our style of play to a more defensive one I think we might be okay. Think of the target being 160 goals against over the course of the season - which should be completely doable and provides a pretty good floor in terms of the standings. If we balance the lines I actually love our depth down the middle - Vidicek as 1C, Cataford as 2C and MacPhee as 3C. Each of those three guys I could easily see taking steps forward, which gives us a really good spine. Always easier to bring in scoring wingers. This is a bad follow up post to your last one in this thread. Only 5 teams in the league had less than 200 goal against. All of them had 250 or more goals for (I’m spotting Victo 6). There’s a direct connection to those two number and that’s basically puck position. Usually if you score 250 plus goals you have the puck more than the other team. Now that is the style this team plays but other than Dumais, Cataford and Vidicek who’s going to be the ones keeping the puck away from the other team? This team isn’t positioned as well as people think they are for next year. I can see a situation where this team doesn’t even finish first in the division again. Their best bet is to try and follow the model that Shawinigan did last year. Ride one line with strong defence and find a strong 20yo to complement them for secondary scoring.
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Post by statsman18 on Mar 28, 2023 11:39:46 GMT -4
I cannot see you bringing Moravec back to take two spots on a contender when he'd be a mid pairing dman assuming everyone else is back too of course perhaps you actually move a young dman or two to address the holes that you will have up front but plenty of time for you to worry about all that after the year is over Moravec has been on the top pair all year playing with Furlong. I've got no issue with him being back using a 20 + Euro slot. I do think it might be prudent to look at trading Jack Martin, especially if Whynot is back. If he can be packaged to bring back a middle-6 winger, I think you have to do it. Hold the phone you think Moravec and Furlong are the top pair? The top pair is Whynot, McKinnon, and has been since they were put together. Look Moravec is good not great. He shouldn’t be back next year. The value he brought to this team can be replaced by someone like Jack Martin. I think a good Ontario Free agent defencemen could replace his contribution too.
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Post by Joe Burrow on Mar 28, 2023 12:00:59 GMT -4
One darkhorse name that I'll throw back out there for next year... James Chase? American winger who came up to training camp for 48 hours and doesn't have a NCAA commitment yet. And maybe they could try to lure battaini too even though he has a ncaa commitment. $$$
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Post by statsman18 on Mar 28, 2023 12:04:11 GMT -4
All great points. Absolutely, futures will play a big role in the near future for the teams in Atlantic. This will make the Atlantic division fairly competitive. We for sure are losing a lot of goals from those players moving on. It will be tough to fill these holes. Dumais will dominate as usual when here. I think Cam too will have to hit it big in the Junior A diamonds in the rough. Perhaps another Boucher type player. Id be surprised if Crosby is still here next year given the progression this year. He really got put on the back burner due to going for it this year. This I believe hasn't helped his development one little bit and will probably want out himself, if I were him. Peitzsche I think will do well taking on a bigger role. He played in a ton load of games this year avoiding being scratched even though his ice time was very low(impressive given how young he is). I am excited to see guys like Fontaine as I think guys like him could step in and contribute early in the year. In terms of Euros, I really don't think Biasca is coming back. IMO, Moravec will return and take up 2 spots as a Euro and a 20. To Statmans point, Cam and staff will have to hit it big in the Euro draft. I cant see the D-core changing at all. Maybe Whynot does not return, but that will depend on if he returns in the playoffs and has a stellar finish. As it stands right now, that is not the case. Your last point is very interesting with who to trade off at xmas. Time will tell if they have to do that or not. I struggle to see that happening, but who knows? I’ll admit I had a few more points to make and ran out of time in my first post, so I just wrapped it up quickly. I’ll address the last statement first. Overall I agree with Howitzer in Cam will basically do what he did this year and wait till Christmas. However he might decide to do the opposite of whatever thinks he will do. If he flips Dumais and is capable of getting a return like he did for McIssac and Groulx the 2024/25 season is a Q Mem Cup year. They would have Cataford, Vidicek, plus Players equal to L’Heureux and Desnoyers. A 20 year old goalie in Rousseau. A defence core of McKinnon, Schultz(20), Phillips, and Martin. Now if Cam trades Furlong and maybe Whynot there’s added assets to bulk up more. Not say this will happen just saying if they aren’t as good next year it could be in play. You bring up some interesting subjects too. Crosby not bing a fit or wanting out. Not sure about that but if this were to be the case I can’t explain why I think or feel this but he might be a perfect player for Hulton to get his hands on. Like I said I don’t know how to explain I just feel he’d be Hilton’s type. The other thing you brought up was Fontaine. When you say can contribute what do you mean by that? Are you saying can coming in be a 2nd liner and maybe be a 20 goal scorer? Or a 3rd line guy like Peitzsche was at the beginning of the year and not look out of place. Because the later sure that I agree with, the first one not so much. He will be a small sized 17yo rookie. He might need some time to adapt.
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Post by trueblue on Mar 28, 2023 12:13:48 GMT -4
Hold the phone you think Moravec and Furlong are the top pair? The top pair is Whynot, McKinnon, and has been since they were put together. Look Moravec is good not great. He shouldn’t be back next year. The value he brought to this team can be replaced by someone like Jack Martin. I think a good Ontario Free agent defencemen could replace his contribution too. The coaches seem to think so, based on even strength ice time and matchups.
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Post by yesisaiditfirst on Mar 28, 2023 12:22:43 GMT -4
Sometimes when we think a player is not a fit and maybe he wants out it's because if you look at Halifax the ice time is just tragic for those guys.
You can say this player hasn't showed he can do more, but he is playing spotty minutes and the coach and fans rather the guys who are playing potting 5 goals a game keep playing. Coach actually needs to ride the scoring 20 year olds.
Players that don't get that many touches in a game have no way to make their case. It makes their case for them to stay off the ice. And if the team is winning and setting records the sad thing is they want out but we really don't know how good they may have been.
At these ages a guy can be night and day from 17 to 18 and then as a 19 year old. And it will when he goes from hardly any shifts to regular top 9 playing time.
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Post by Herd Fan on Mar 28, 2023 12:35:53 GMT -4
What Cam will do is anyone's best guess. I wonder if new owners have any say on how he makes his decisions. I am not in disagreement that we are set up better this year then next for going for it. But many at the start of last season did not think this year would be it. So.......I think Cam will do the exact same thing and see how we do in the first 2.5 months next season and figure out which way to jump off the fence.
I get your points on our D. But how are you deciding on who are top pair are? If it is offensive production, then Moravec and Furlong take the cake and that is even playing minimal PP for the most part compared to Whynot who was playig PP1 and is still not producing much. Mackinnon is no brainer an amazing shut down guy and plays with an edge. He is out on most PK's and does quite well. If you look at overall TOI....Furlong and Moravec seem to dominate that. In addition perhaps just optics, but when the Moose release the nightly roster, Furlong and Moravec are considered top pair in most.
Going forward, even though I think Moravec will return, I dont disagree that someone like Martin can replace him. Martin has a lot of upside given his age and hasnt been given a ton of opportunity yet.
My point on Fontaine points to your latter comment for contribution. He would be more a 3rd line guy but will see a lot more ice next season then Peitzsche did this season. Although small, he will not take long to adapt. Fontaine had a great camp last year and I thought was going to crack the roster. In addition, he had a solid season in Quebec.
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Post by trueblue on Mar 28, 2023 12:59:45 GMT -4
This is a bad follow up post to your last one in this thread. Only 5 teams in the league had less than 200 goal against. All of them had 250 or more goals for (I’m spotting Victo 6). There’s a direct connection to those two number and that’s basically puck position. Usually if you score 250 plus goals you have the puck more than the other team. Now that is the style this team plays but other than Dumais, Cataford and Vidicek who’s going to be the ones keeping the puck away from the other team? This team isn’t positioned as well as people think they are for next year. I can see a situation where this team doesn’t even finish first in the division again. Their best bet is to try and follow the model that Shawinigan did last year. Ride one line with strong defence and find a strong 20yo to complement them for secondary scoring. If we want to get into tactics/analytics... having talented and experienced defenseman are very important for overall puck possession - I'd look specifically to controlled exits (transition), entry denial (defense), and puck retrieval (defense). If paired and coached correctly, we've got a well rounded D group that can absolutely excel in these areas. From a purely goals against perspective, also keep in mind we have a workhorse in net that is probably at minimum a top 3 goalie in the league next year. Think of how disastrous our D was prior to Christmas, and we still only gave up 196 goals. I have the same worries as you and everyone else about who is going to take the final pass and put the puck in the net, but I think we will be good enough from a puck possession perspective. Even some of the big question marks we have up front (MacPhee, Crosby, Peitzche) have shown glimpses of talent possessing the puck down low on the cycle - just no ability to finish.
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Post by statsman18 on Mar 28, 2023 14:34:58 GMT -4
Hold the phone you think Moravec and Furlong are the top pair? The top pair is Whynot, McKinnon, and has been since they were put together. Look Moravec is good not great. He shouldn’t be back next year. The value he brought to this team can be replaced by someone like Jack Martin. I think a good Ontario Free agent defencemen could replace his contribution too. The coaches seem to think so, based on even strength ice time and matchups. You are aware Whynot is out with a broke foot so they are out of necessity right now. Once he’s back Whynot and Dylan will be the guys again.
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