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Post by countryboy on Jun 13, 2022 11:03:44 GMT -4
Not interested in Lamoureux. He has impressive size and they have invested a lot in him.....but I'd beware. I don't feel he had a great season at all. He's under the microscope because he is NHL draft eligible. Sure.... it might all come together.... his size is tantalizing. But right now, I would not be interested. so if Guay to Drummondville is a thing.... i find it a little surprising as the Volts look built for two years down the road but whatever i would hope the return would be a top prospect plus at least 2 top picks...... something like Lamoureux, 1st 2023 and 1st 2024 (our own) |
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Post by bois on Jun 13, 2022 11:05:11 GMT -4
Not interested in Lamoureux. He has impressive size and they have invested a lot in him.....but I'd beware. I don't feel he had a great season at all. He's under the microscope because he is NHL draft eligible. Sure.... it might all come together.... his size is tantalizing. But right now, I would not be interested. so if Guay to Drummondville is a thing.... i find it a little surprising as the Volts look built for two years down the road but whatever i would hope the return would be a top prospect plus at least 2 top picks...... something like Lamoureux, 1st 2023 and 1st 2024 (our own) just tossing out speculation is all.... and knowing how Hulton builds from his backend first |
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Post by countryboy on Jun 13, 2022 11:26:13 GMT -4
I’ve dabbled a bit in some analytics this season…I know your opinion on those, lol.
We’ll say for the mentioned player, the analytics I’m looking at do not paint rosy picture. That size though….
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Post by islander19 on Jun 13, 2022 11:30:54 GMT -4
Heard it was Elliott to Drummondville as futures, and originally didn’t want to report. No clue if that’s still the case or what that does for a trade, but just a rumour I had heard.
As for Guay, hopefully no deals were made too early…his stock has just about tripled since this time last time I’d say.
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Post by bois on Jun 13, 2022 11:31:06 GMT -4
I’ve dabbled a bit in some analytics this season…I know your opinion on those, lol. We’ll say for the mentioned player, the analytics I’m looking at do not paint rosy picture. That size though…. You don't really know my opinion on those lol you assume because i called out the guy who since deleted his account again one time for his posts about them and because i judge my opinions on what i see and the traditional numbers that i have grown up with.... i don't think there is no value in some of the new numbers..... i just caution against using them as the main point of talking about a player/team/game etc anyways i would love to hear what about this player does not paint a rosy picture..... honestly |
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Post by Captain Obvious on Jun 13, 2022 11:53:45 GMT -4
Not interested in Lamoureux. He has impressive size and they have invested a lot in him.....but I'd beware. I don't feel he had a great season at all. He's under the microscope because he is NHL draft eligible. Sure.... it might all come together.... his size is tantalizing. But right now, I would not be interested. so if Guay to Drummondville is a thing.... i find it a little surprising as the Volts look built for two years down the road but whatever i would hope the return would be a top prospect plus at least 2 top picks...... something like Lamoureux, 1st 2023 and 1st 2024 (our own) The difference between him and guys 5'10" is it takes him a bit more time to grow into his body and coordination. As you guys saw with has and Masicotte, big D like that are a huge asset at playoff time. Lamoureux has a much higher ceiling than those two. |
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Post by Captain Obvious on Jun 13, 2022 12:01:25 GMT -4
Trudeau's situation is a very interesting one. As as a 20 y/o player, he will be AHL eligible and could play for either Montreal's AHL affiliate (Laval) or ECHL affiliate (Trois-Rivieres). But, his status as a late birthday makes his situation one that is worth monitoring. Trudeau was drafted in the 4th round in the 2021 draft, the first year he was draft eligible. His birthday is Oct. 11, and by the draft rules his first year eligible for the NHL draft was after his 18 y/o season (he would have been one of the oldest first time eligible prospects for the 2021 draft). To understand Trudeau's situation, you need to understand how the NHL entry level slide rule works for entry level contracts. The "slide" rule allows teams to sign a player to his entry level contract, but keep him in junior hockey when for up to 2 more years without burning years on his contract. For example, Lukas Cormier (born in the same year as Trudeau, but not a late birthday) was drafted by Vegas in the 2020 NHL draft. They signed him to his entry level contract in December of 2020. Even though he's contracted with the team, his contract was allowed to "slide" for the 2020-21 and 2021-22 NHL seasons. Unless he actually plays in the NHL for more than 9 games as an 18 or 19 y/o player, the contract, despite being signed, really doesn't kick in until the 22-23 season. In fact, even if Vegas did decide to assign Cormier back to the QMJHL, they would still have his contract kicking in and the first year of his contract would be ticking during the upcoming QMJHL season. Back to Trudeau....those guys with late birthdays.... the slide rule still exists, but it plays out a little differently. You can get drafted after your 18 y/o season and go back to junior for your 19 y/o season. Of course the contract slides. But, for your 20 y/o season, the contract can still slide.... and this is even true if you are playing in the AHL or ECHL. Did you catch that I stated the contract "can" slide. In order for this to happen (i.e. for a contract to slide during a player's 20 y/o season), his entry level contract must be signed by Dec. 31 of his draft year. Remember when St. Louis rushed to sign Nikita Alexandrov shortly after they drafted him at the end of the second round in 2019? In doing so, they made sure that his contract slid during his 19 y/o junior season and also during his 20 y/o season (during the pandemic, when he played between the AHL and the Finnish Liiga). Now.... back to Trudeau. He's definitely a decent prospect. He's had a great QMJHL career and has been on Hockey Canada's radar. But, Montreal has yet to sign him to an entry level deal. Now, as Habs fans know, they've had a ton of picks the past few years and they are likely playing it careful as to who they will sign and who they might walk.... because you can only have 50 guys on your signed list (not including sliding contracts). Since Montreal has not signed him, he cannot see his contract slide if they sign him to an entry level contract for next season. He'll burn the first year of his eligibility.... but if they keep him in junior for another season, they can make it so that his entry level contract doesn't kick in until the start of the 2023-24 season One option for the Habs though, if they really keen on Trudeau playing pro hockey this year, they could offer him an AHL only deal to play with Laval or Trois-Rivieres for the 22-23 season and then sign his entry level deal (if they wish) to start the 23-24 season, because their deadline to get him signed would be June 1, 2023, two years after they drafted him. The Ducks did this with Hunter Drew. The difference with him was that they drafted him as a 19 y/o player. For his 20 y/o season he played in the Q. When he was 21 they did not have to make the call on him for signing his entry level contract, so he played on an AHL only deal at age 21 and the Ducks did eventually sign him to his entry level contract. Simoneau would be in the same situation. The Habs can put him on an AHL only deal for 22-23 because they don't have to sign him to his entry level contract until 23-24...like Trudeau... two years after his draft. The contracts sliding as a 20 y/o player is actually pretty common. Evan Bouchard played as a 20 y/o in the AHL but the Oilers did not burn a year of his contract. Emile Poirier, who the Flames drafted a few years ago was the first player this happened with where people started to understand the rule. Complicated stuff.... but it probably means that it's a little more likely that Trudeau could play in the Q as a 20 y/o. I think Montreal will sign him eventually, but I don't see him playing pro next year for 2 reasons. 1-It will allow him to be the "big dog" somewhere with top PP time, something he didn't get with Cormier and Laouaan ahead of him. 2-The habs have a pile of young D coming in, they just added Harris and Barron in the spring plus Guhle will be graduating as well a Xhekaj plus Norlinder supposedly playing in NA next year. They left Struble another year NCAA and I expect them to let Trudeau play in the Q. |
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Post by WhiteTyAffair on Jun 13, 2022 12:34:52 GMT -4
Regarding Biakabutuka - I've heard the rumours of him going to Cape Breton as well. Also, I've heard Patrick Guay is going to Drummondville. Drew Elliot is rumoured to be traded but I haven't figured out where as of yet. Going to correct myself here. Guay is likely headed to Blainville, not Drummondville. |
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Post by bois on Jun 13, 2022 12:47:38 GMT -4
Regarding Biakabutuka - I've heard the rumours of him going to Cape Breton as well. Also, I've heard Patrick Guay is going to Drummondville. Drew Elliot is rumoured to be traded but I haven't figured out where as of yet. Going to correct myself here. Guay is likely headed to Blainville, not Drummondville. hearing what for? better situation if true in terms of high picks available |
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Post by countryboy on Jun 13, 2022 12:55:39 GMT -4
OK.... wanted to make sure you were interested before I continued the discussion. That guy.... he was reporting some interesting stuff...but he was just reading it off the website he somehow had the credentials to get onto. If you can't justify how the numbers are generated (i.e. goalie leading the team in giveaways) they are worth. I'm not sure to what extent he understood what he was posting... and thus he couldn't explain what the numbers meant....worthless. Plus, he pretty much was a clown all the time. I'm glad that you're not just basing your opinion on advanced stats on your interactions with him. Supposedly the teams in the league are using the Instat service to provide analytics. It seems like it is a big company that is contracted to provide this information. They do analysis at different levels of hockey and in different sports. Somebody has to be collecting the data somehow. I hope whoever is collecting the data understands what they are looking for. And I hope hope that the teams using the info understand what they are looking at. The problem with most in the analytics community is that those who know something about it all often come off as condescending know it alls who make sure that trumpet the fact that they know more than you. I made it a point to try an learn something about all of this starting around 2018 and there's no good entry point. Much of the info is really hard to figure out where it comes from.... it's like those "in the know" want to keep it a secret..... presumably so they can continue acting like our friend you mention earlier Many of the analytics I've learned a lot about track the following things: -possession metrics.... like Corsi/Fenwick..... it's counting shots directed towards the net as a measure of puck possession. The Q does not track that stuff (and at least make it public) -ice time..... many of these measure, as well as the traditional stats can be calculated per 60 minutes of icetime .... and the Q does not track (or at least make public) a player's ice time. Here's what I tracked for this past season.... it is 5X5 goal differential. Basically, it's the ingredients of plus minus, but not being expressed as a plus minus calculation. I'll use Noah Laaouan for an example. Noah was on ice for 73 5X5 goals for for the entire 21-22 season and 41 goals against. His 5X5 goal diffential is 73-41, an you'll sometimes see these types of metric expressed as a percentage.....like this....73 GF/(73 GF + 41 GA) = 64.0%. 64% of the goals Noah was on for were goals for. Now, an important part of this number is how a player performs relative to his team. Noah plays for Charlottetown, who had an awesome season. The Islanders scored 172 5X5 GF this season compared to allowing 102 5X5 GA.... their team 5X5 goal differential is 172/(172+102)=62.8%. Noah checks in about 1.2% higher than the team, which I guess is what you should expect from a top 20 y/o blueliner. Why not use plus minus? What I like about this is that the larger sample size gives a little more sensitivity on how a player can 'tilt the ice' if he's on and an important part of his teams scoring/defending. You can be lucky and get to +5 by being on for five goals for and 0 goals against. But you can also be +5 by being on for 55 goals for and 50 goals against. The player who is playing more.... we get a better picture of his contributions with the 5X5 goal differential. I had the goal this season of doing something with analytics...and with no Fenwick/Corsi or ice time...this was kind of my only option. Here's a link to all my data from this season in a Google Doc. docs.google.com/document/d/1QUwovO9WE7a8u71lk_pAmNClRzC-An6kYeHuUB-s0Ko/edit?usp=sharingI'm curious about doing this again next year and building a record of how things progress by season....but it is a lot of work. I enjoyed it though, because I feel I have a better pulse on the league now than previous seasons. I used to play in that Fantasy league on the message board...and that helped me understand the teams we don't see so often. But since that fizzled out, I've felt a little more clueless about the teams we only see once a year. Now....Maveric Lamoureux... his month breakdowns were as follows: Oct 4-10 Nov 9-11 Dec 4-12 Feb 0-2 Mar 7-8 Apr 6-16 End result: 30-59 = 33.7% For the team, Drummondville was as follows Oct 21-18 Nov 20-28 Dec 16-25 Feb 18-16 Mar 26-27 Apr 28-41 End result = 129-155 = 45.4% What went on? Well, I'm guessing that Drummondville tried to do too much with the raw 17 y/o prospect. He wasn't getting the help and support he needed and was on the ice for way too many goals against at 5X5. I'm not sure who he was playing with, but they would have been better to try to shelter his minutes, because those numbers are not very favourable. 16 y/o player Rotondi was at 50.8%. I'm sure he was playing against weaker players, but still you don't want to see a good prospect like Lamoureux giving up so much. But I'll end like the other guy....but I don't mean to be a jerk like him... the numbers offer perspective and are only part of the puzzle. He's still a player who is 6'7" at 17 and hopefully can put it all together. An NHL team will pick him next month and it will be curious as to how things progress in his development. But for me, I'd have him as a buyer beware right now. There will be lots of pressure on our blueline in 22-23 with so many young defenders. A lot of detail, I know... but that's what my project was this season. |
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Post by bois on Jun 13, 2022 13:00:36 GMT -4
thanks countryboy great post there as usual
anyways sounds like the GUay rumour has changed so all this talk is now moot.. but i appreciate the response
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Post by Captain Obvious on Jun 13, 2022 13:17:26 GMT -4
OK.... wanted to make sure you were interested before I continued the discussion. That guy.... he was reporting some interesting stuff...but he was just reading it off the website he somehow had the credentials to get onto. If you can't justify how the numbers are generated (i.e. goalie leading the team in giveaways) they are worth. I'm not sure to what extent he understood what he was posting... and thus he couldn't explain what the numbers meant....worthless. Plus, he pretty much was a clown all the time. I'm glad that you're not just basing your opinion on advanced stats on your interactions with him. Supposedly the teams in the league are using the Instat service to provide analytics. It seems like it is a big company that is contracted to provide this information. They do analysis at different levels of hockey and in different sports. Somebody has to be collecting the data somehow. I hope whoever is collecting the data understands what they are looking for. And I hope hope that the teams using the info understand what they are looking at. The problem with most in the analytics community is that those who know something about it all often come off as condescending know it alls who make sure that trumpet the fact that they know more than you. I made it a point to try an learn something about all of this starting around 2018 and there's no good entry point. Much of the info is really hard to figure out where it comes from.... it's like those "in the know" want to keep it a secret..... presumably so they can continue acting like our friend you mention earlier Many of the analytics I've learned a lot about track the following things: -possession metrics.... like Corsi/Fenwick..... it's counting shots directed towards the net as a measure of puck possession. The Q does not track that stuff (and at least make it public) -ice time..... many of these measure, as well as the traditional stats can be calculated per 60 minutes of icetime .... and the Q does not track (or at least make public) a player's ice time. Here's what I tracked for this past season.... it is 5X5 goal differential. Basically, it's the ingredients of plus minus, but not being expressed as a plus minus calculation. I'll use Noah Laaouan for an example. Noah was on ice for 73 5X5 goals for for the entire 21-22 season and 41 goals against. His 5X5 goal diffential is 73-41, an you'll sometimes see these types of metric expressed as a percentage.....like this....73 GF/(73 GF + 41 GA) = 64.0%. 64% of the goals Noah was on for were goals for. Now, an important part of this number is how a player performs relative to his team. Noah plays for Charlottetown, who had an awesome season. The Islanders scored 172 5X5 GF this season compared to allowing 102 5X5 GA.... their team 5X5 goal differential is 172/(172+102)=62.8%. Noah checks in about 1.2% higher than the team, which I guess is what you should expect from a top 20 y/o blueliner. Why not use plus minus? What I like about this is that the larger sample size gives a little more sensitivity on how a player can 'tilt the ice' if he's on and an important part of his teams scoring/defending. You can be lucky and get to +5 by being on for five goals for and 0 goals against. But you can also be +5 by being on for 55 goals for and 50 goals against. The player who is playing more.... we get a better picture of his contributions with the 5X5 goal differential. I had the goal this season of doing something with analytics...and with no Fenwick/Corsi or ice time...this was kind of my only option. Here's a link to all my data from this season in a Google Doc. docs.google.com/document/d/1QUwovO9WE7a8u71lk_pAmNClRzC-An6kYeHuUB-s0Ko/edit?usp=sharingI'm curious about doing this again next year and building a record of how things progress by season....but it is a lot of work. I enjoyed it though, because I feel I have a better pulse on the league now than previous seasons. I used to play in that Fantasy league on the message board...and that helped me understand the teams we don't see so often. But since that fizzled out, I've felt a little more clueless about the teams we only see once a year. Now....Maveric Lamoureux... his month breakdowns were as follows: Oct 4-10 Nov 9-11 Dec 4-12 Feb 0-2 Mar 7-8 Apr 6-16 End result: 30-59 = 33.7% For the team, Drummondville was as follows Oct 21-18 Nov 20-28 Dec 16-25 Feb 18-16 Mar 26-27 Apr 28-41 End result = 129-155 = 45.4% What went on? Well, I'm guessing that Drummondville tried to do too much with the raw 17 y/o prospect. He wasn't getting the help and support he needed and was on the ice for way too many goals against at 5X5. I'm not sure who he was playing with, but they would have been better to try to shelter his minutes, because those numbers are not very favourable. 16 y/o player Rotondi was at 50.8%. I'm sure he was playing against weaker players, but still you don't want to see a good prospect like Lamoureux giving up so much. But I'll end like the other guy....but I don't mean to be a jerk like him... the numbers offer perspective and are only part of the puzzle. He's still a player who is 6'7" at 17 and hopefully can put it all together. An NHL team will pick him next month and it will be curious as to how things progress in his development. But for me, I'd have him as a buyer beware right now. There will be lots of pressure on our blueline in 22-23 with so many young defenders. A lot of detail, I know... but that's what my project was this season. Very interesting information. Creative way to use + and - numbers. I tend to use the stat but in relation to the team...say if player X is -3 on a powerhouse team that is +68 globally, that's a big red flag, even if the guy is used in a shutdown role vs other guys who may get softer minutes. |
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Post by Captain Obvious on Jun 13, 2022 13:20:02 GMT -4
thanks countryboy great post there as usual anyways sounds like the GUay rumour has changed so all this talk is now moot.. but i appreciate the response However unlikely, I wonder if it's related to the Roy trade? That deal looks pretty cheap for a 19 year old over 1PPGM. that being said, Guay even as futures would be a lot for Roy... |
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Post by Fiveholesniper on Jun 13, 2022 16:07:35 GMT -4
I’ve heard biaka to cape breton and Elliott drummondville
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Post by jordo999 on Jun 13, 2022 16:23:43 GMT -4
perhaps Colby Huggan could be headed your guys way from Blainville in a potential deal? Former 3rd round pick and Charlottetown born...would make a lot of sense. The Roy trade seems like futures involved and maybe part of the deal was having priority on Guay.
Huggan + picks for Guay would make some sense. Could be a much bigger traded than anticipated as well.
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so if Guay to Drummondville is a thing.... i find it a little surprising as the Volts look built for two years down the road but whatever
