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Post by L'il Boy on Apr 5, 2024 12:48:28 GMT -4
Cormier at 22 is 5'11" and 185 lbs Kearsey at 17 is 5'11" and 160 lbs Kearsey was the top scoring 17 yr old d-man in the Q and will only get better. If he's on the market, there will be lots of teams interested.
There are lots of examples of later round picks playing AHL at 20. Just looking at the Islanders alumni there's Nicolas Meloche, Guillaume Brisebois, Filip Chlapik, Daniel Sprong, Ryan Graves, Samuel Blais...... If he goes from 49 points this year to back to back point per game+ seasons its hard to image he's an overager unless other parts of his game really go south. Yep.....my point there was that I doubt that Cormier was 185 lbs when he was 17. And, he was only 5'10" according to the Q site...and that would have been in his 19 yr old season.
While it's more than fair to say he's no Cormier, he has a lot of the same traits that Cormier has; he thinks the game well, is a great skater and can get pucks on net. While we all know how Lukas turned out, there's nothing to say that Kearsey can't be better than him...that'll be up to Kearsey.
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Post by heyref on Apr 5, 2024 13:05:24 GMT -4
In my opinion trading Kearsey sets you back more than it helps you. People on here talk about using his value to replace assets to eventually improve...dont you think the team will be improved next year just through experience? Losing Kearsey leaves you another year before gaining anything.... even if we get a 1st rounder this year. That 1st rounder is not going to lead this team as a rookie. Unless there is a trade or FA pickup after training camp I see Bickle Hughes and Vos back as 20s...we can perhaps pick up a pick for Michel .... After that we only have 3 19 year-olds Jardine Power and Topilnyckyj and perhaps Walker (I don't expect Ozols back).....we will still be a young team but some pretty good experience and a lot of upside. If we can find a couple of good 17/18 year old Euros we could be really on our way. With Plamandon ready to play D and hopefully Hickey in goal there is some promise for sure. Could Mossey finally be healthy and ready to join the team after a decent season in JrA? I am not writing off this group. Sure we need some tweaks...but a year older and some battle testing will pay off for sure. The biggest thing that needs to improve is the d zone play....getting the puck out of our end needs to be a top priority. We played a lot of close games this season...and a number of games where we gave up multiple goals in just a few minutes to fall out of a close game. A goal here and a stop there makes a huge difference and changes where we end up in the standings. Can't wait to see how it all plays out Its not just you gaining experience though. Look at how the division stacks up. Are you saying you can compete with Cape Breton and Moncton? Both should be in the top 5 of the league. Until Halifax sells off talent they're returning a good core. Bathurst and Saint John will also get better. SJ moved Burbidge, who imo is worth less than Kearsey, for the same reasons you should move Kearsey. You personally don't have to write off the group or player(s) but the reality is that you lack the picks and talent to contend any time soon and if Kearsey plays another 1.5 years you will end up forced to trade him at 19. There's also the fact of it being a Memorial Cup host year for the Q. That means higher prices and more teams buying the best guys on the market. And the trade value different we're talking about in moving him now vs in 1.5 years time at 19 is also massive. You can have a top draft pick for this year just as a part of that return. If you want 1.5 years you're waiting another 2-3 for the return you get and you're looking at years 4/5/6 without contending where if you make the right moves now you don't need to sit through a potentially very frustrating 24/25 season without waiting another year to make the big move and another 2-3 for the return to mature as anything worthwhile in your lineup. The Kearsey you want to keep and trade at 19 could be a star 17yr old by that time in addition to 2-3 other key assets. I understand the idea of getting assets for a rebuild when the value is at its highest...my point is that if, as you say, you are gonna sit through a rough season this coming season don't you think it's gonna be rougher for longer if you trade Kearsey? SJ got a 2024 1st and second and a 2025 first for Burbidge...does that make this season better for Saint John? I don't think so. It's a fine line between giving up and getting back. If at Christmas things aren't improved I have no problem sending top assets out ...and like you said the returns will be high this year with the Mem Cup in the Q...if that's the case next years draft could be where the Islanders finally get back to drafting high and cashing in. |
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Post by countryboy on Apr 5, 2024 13:07:51 GMT -4
If a player gets drafted after their 17 y/o season, more often than not they are playing pro at 20. The drafting team has until June 1 two years after they draft them to sign them to their entry level contract.
Sure, if the guy goes unsigned then he is likely to end up back in junior as a 20 y/o... but he has the option to go pro on his own on an AHL/ECHL deal or even to play pro in Europe. There's even a possibility an unsigned player gets picked in the draft later that year and maybe his new team wants to turn him pro.
But once the player signs that entry level contract, it will not be subject to slide when he is 20, regardless of if he's playing major junior or professional hockey. You sign at 18 or 19 and your contract "slides" as long as you play junior. That means that the guys first three years as a pro are at 20, 21, and 22.
So if a team is interested enough to sign a player they've drafted, they usually look to turn him pro as soon as he is eligible... when he's 20. The clock is ticking on his contract anyway... which has implications for his next contract, waiver eligibility, the contract being part of their 50 man list, etc. They can put him on their pro team in AHL/ECHL and have greater control over his health, conditioning, training, etc. When you farm him back to junior, then you don't have that level of control.
Sure, it's possible to send a signed player back to junior... but it's not as common. Usually there are implications like the player has suffered a major injury and could benefit from playing more in junior. Sometimes the junior team hosting his rights is a strong team or a is a Memorial Cup host and the pro team sees the benefits in him playing in that environment.
It is my opinion that the later drafted picks would be better served by playing a 20 y/o season in junior, but the pro teams usually don't look to do that.
As for players who are late birthdays, it might be a little more common to see them sent back at 20. Teams don't have as long to watch them develop in junior after they are drafted, if they draft them after their 18 y/o season and need to sign them after their 19 y/o season. I would have thought William Trudeau would end up in junior at 20, but Montreal liked what they saw for keeping him in their pro program.
Guay was drafted after his 18 y/o season... 2nd year eligible. Vegas could have watched him for one more year in junior as a 20, but they chose to turn him pro at 20. He's in year 2 of the 3 year ELC...He's mostly an ECHL player this year and his stats aren't as good this year as they were last year. Looking at his 2 year production in the AHL tells me that a season in junior at 20 would have been a benefit.
Dostie was also drafted at 18 in his 2nd year eligible. He had a little more AHL than ECHL but he didn't get re-upped for a second pro contract after his ELC finished up. I also think he would have been more pro ready if he played junior at 20... but it's all just my opinion.
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Post by Jack Bauer on Apr 5, 2024 13:11:40 GMT -4
Its not just you gaining experience though. Look at how the division stacks up. Are you saying you can compete with Cape Breton and Moncton? Both should be in the top 5 of the league. Until Halifax sells off talent they're returning a good core. Bathurst and Saint John will also get better. SJ moved Burbidge, who imo is worth less than Kearsey, for the same reasons you should move Kearsey. You personally don't have to write off the group or player(s) but the reality is that you lack the picks and talent to contend any time soon and if Kearsey plays another 1.5 years you will end up forced to trade him at 19. There's also the fact of it being a Memorial Cup host year for the Q. That means higher prices and more teams buying the best guys on the market. And the trade value different we're talking about in moving him now vs in 1.5 years time at 19 is also massive. You can have a top draft pick for this year just as a part of that return. If you want 1.5 years you're waiting another 2-3 for the return you get and you're looking at years 4/5/6 without contending where if you make the right moves now you don't need to sit through a potentially very frustrating 24/25 season without waiting another year to make the big move and another 2-3 for the return to mature as anything worthwhile in your lineup. The Kearsey you want to keep and trade at 19 could be a star 17yr old by that time in addition to 2-3 other key assets. I understand the idea of getting assets for a rebuild when the value is at its highest...my point is that if, as you say, you are gonna sit through a rough season this coming season don't you think it's gonna be rougher for longer if you trade Kearsey? SJ got a 2024 1st and second and a 2025 first for Burbidge...does that make this season better for Saint John? I don't think so. It's a fine line between giving up and getting back. If at Christmas things aren't improved I have no problem sending top assets out ...and like you said the returns will be high this year with the Mem Cup in the Q...if that's the case next years draft could be where the Islanders finally get back to drafting high and cashing in. The answer is yes - This season is better for SJ having those picks vs having Burbidge. He would not have changed their fate at all. Those picks will be key parts of their rebuild. Ultimately the longer you wait to draft a good group of kids with high end potential the longer it will be until you're relevant again. Kearsey can change the asset part...he himself can't surround himself with better talent. |
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Post by dutchinc on Apr 5, 2024 14:07:29 GMT -4
[ It is not likely Marcus turns pro at 20. First rounders play their 20 yr season for further development. The Islanders had a horse on D last year that signed his ELC and he was 6’4, 220lbs, skate, hit and put up points. He’s a small player and you suggest he can play against full grown men at 20? Maybe Cormier is a better comparison. Third round pick and I think we would all agree Marcus isn’t Lukas. Hulton has stated this publicly for people to cool their jets on this comparison. If he gets drafted, if, it will be late. But that doesn’t change what he is lacking- size, weight and strength. Junior is one thing- lots of good players are amazing at this level. They will never make NHL-AHL level- even ECHL AS WELL.. 50 goal scorers in the Q are playing in the ECHL. Saying all that. He’s a very nice player and is a valuable player for this organization. I do agree if the price is right pull the trigger and get assets back for him. This team isn’t anywhere close to winning anything. Don’t let him walk for nothing. 1st rounders rarely play in the Q at 20. Not sure what you're basing that on. Kearsey as a 4th or 5th round pick could easily project to being a pro player at 20. Thats 3 more summers in the gym. 2 NHL training camps. 2 full QMJHL seasons with the trajectory being among the top D in the league when he's 19. If he's 5'10 180lbs with a pro contract after his 19yr old season he's probably not back in the Q. Last i checked Kearsey was projected 6-7th round. 2-4 months ago. As of today he’s ranked like 156th with north American skaters only. Then Factor in the Euros. He’s not a stand out like a Cormier where his size can be somewhat overlooked. If he was 6’3 200lbs. Then yes. I’d probably agree with u. |
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Post by bois on Apr 5, 2024 14:14:07 GMT -4
No sense arguing about whether Kearsay will be in the league as a 20 or not.... that should play zero factor into whether the organization uses him to restock assets or not
The option is you go into this draft with 1 pick in the first 3 rounds and say we like the progression of our young kids from last year and want to see what they can do with another year of growth and evaluate where we are next Christmas before making big moves... I can see this happening but it would not be my choice if i had one (i know i don't) but if we do this you better hit on that one pick you have and also find a couple of sleepers in later rounds (we have been good at this) and you better grab a high end Euro who is either 18 or 19 (preferably 19 as that age group is severely lacking on our roster) and you better trust the scouts to find a free agent or 3 who can step in and contribute.. and i don't mean as a bottom pairing d or 4th line forward... i'm talking a Gio Morneau type of find
or you trade Kearsay for a boatload including 1st round pick now and in the future (this is the route i would go if it were my choice)... that isn't giving up on the nucleus of the youth (Butler, Shields, Michaud, Campbell, Duguay, Flanagan, Plamondon, Conrad) it's simply being smart in restocking the cupboard for options for the next run... you add a high end talent to that nucleus and give yourself future trade chips if that nucleus shows it's ready to make huge strides in a year or two... and at least if we suck this year we have our own first in 2025 to further things along
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Post by countryboy on Apr 5, 2024 15:44:43 GMT -4
Just so everyone in the discussion is clear, here is what we have for picks (via the French message board that keeps track):
2024: 3-5-7VDO-8-8Rim-8She-11-12-13-14
2025: 1-2Gat-5-6-7-8Rim-9-10-11-12-13-14
2026: 1-2-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12-13-14
That is two picks in the top 100. Not enough for any team to even function with.
So there has to be picks added for this year. No way would I flip the 2025 1st or Gat 2nd for a pick this year. Too dangerous.
So what do we have on our roster that could be moved right away for a 2024 selection?
-Either Euro if there is any appetite whatsoever and if we know we are moving on... but that maybe gets us pick in the round 6-10 range.
-Michel if we want to use Vos as a 20. It is very hard to trade mediocre 20's. Only the great ones get any return value. Even the good ones really don't cost a ton. Michel would need to go to a spot where they are deficient and he's clearly better than an option on that roster. So maybe a 6th round pick there?
-We really don't have a lot of forward depth, so you can't really deal from there unless someone comes calling looking specifically for someone.
-Here's our current D depth, organized by L/R
LHD
Owen Conrad
Simon Duguay
Max Jardine
Marcus Kearsey
Carl-Etienne Michel
Zackary Plamondon
RHD
Isaac Vos
Anton Topilnyckyj
Alexis Jacques
There's definitely a leftorium happening there on one side. You can further fuel the possibilities of dealing Kearsey. I think that a team might look at Duguay as a potential want. I think there's some decent upside there. He's a a great skater and his experience gained this year should be valuable. I'd prefer to keep him, but maybe he's a guy we take a call on.
In terms of just trading guys who are attractive options whose age doesn't match as well, I think you could get interest in a big, experienced D-man like Topo... but that right side is awfully think. I think Jacques is a guy with enough skill to play in the league, there is no one looking to pay to add a guy who played MHL at 18.
Creative strategies needed!
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Post by bd on Apr 5, 2024 17:33:45 GMT -4
Interesting quote from Hulton on this past off season/christ trade period:
“Off-seasons are about roster decisions, and we have some difficult decisions to make, and we have to do a better job,” said Hulton. “Quite frankly, I didn’t think I did a very good job in either chair this year.
“Disappointed (something at) the trade deadline didn’t materialize; there were things last summer that fell through. It has to be a no-excuses off-season, and we have to do the job to surround the core pieces we think we have here. We have a lot of work to do to surround them with the right pieces.”
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Post by howitzer on Apr 5, 2024 18:32:24 GMT -4
Interesting quote from Hulton on this past off season/christ trade period: “Off-seasons are about roster decisions, and we have some difficult decisions to make, and we have to do a better job,” said Hulton. “Quite frankly, I didn’t think I did a very good job in either chair this year. “Disappointed (something at) the trade deadline didn’t materialize; there were things last summer that fell through. It has to be a no-excuses off-season, and we have to do the job to surround the core pieces we think we have here. We have a lot of work to do to surround them with the right pieces.” Refreshing to see the honesty and introspection. We could use some of that in Halifax right about now. |
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Post by Score on Apr 6, 2024 9:24:17 GMT -4
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Post by sherwood1020 on Apr 6, 2024 11:27:37 GMT -4
Interesting quote from Hulton on this past off season/christ trade period: “Off-seasons are about roster decisions, and we have some difficult decisions to make, and we have to do a better job,” said Hulton. “Quite frankly, I didn’t think I did a very good job in either chair this year. “Disappointed (something at) the trade deadline didn’t materialize; there were things last summer that fell through. It has to be a no-excuses off-season, and we have to do the job to surround the core pieces we think we have here. We have a lot of work to do to surround them with the right pieces.” Wouldn't expect any less from Hulton. Even though he currently hasn't gotten them over the hump during his time as Coach/GM, he's done alot of great work there and graduated alot of kids into the Pro ranks. He knows damn well what he's accomplished 3-4-5 years ago isn't what he's put together over the past couple seasons. Accountability starting from behind the bench shows his kids a maturity and a willingness to take the criticism head on and simply be better. There's always things you could do differently with the benefit of hindsight, but looking back at something like the Shields trade, he did very well to identify a player in his age range needing a change of scenery and picked up a former top 10 pick for a decent price considering what little he had to work with. |
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Post by Score on Apr 10, 2024 12:48:06 GMT -4
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Post by jangle on Apr 11, 2024 14:45:00 GMT -4
Did I dream this or is Jim Hulton’s contract up? I thought someone in here (on another thread) once said he signed a 10 year contract and it was up at the end of this season.
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Post by Score on Apr 11, 2024 15:50:36 GMT -4
Did I dream this or is Jim Hulton’s contract up? I thought someone in here (on another thread) once said he signed a 10 year contract and it was up at the end of this season. This upcoming season is his last. |
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Post by jangle on Apr 11, 2024 17:17:44 GMT -4
Did I dream this or is Jim Hulton’s contract up? I thought someone in here (on another thread) once said he signed a 10 year contract and it was up at the end of this season. This upcoming season is his last. Thank you. |
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