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Post by SteveUL on Feb 13, 2019 12:07:47 GMT -4
Since we own the Bathurst 2019 First Round draft pick, which could very well be the #1 overall pick ... or at least it should have the best odds of being the #1 overall pick in the lottery, I thought we should watch the race for last a little closer.
Bathurst currently sits in 18th place with just 17 pts with 15 games to play.
Saint John is in 17th place with 28 pts and 14 games to play ... 11 pts ahead of Bathurst.
Bathurst is currently gaining points at a rate of 0.160 so with 15 games to go they project to accumulate 4.8 pts in 15 games ... call it 5 pts. Over their last 14 games they have gained 2 pts, and over their last 10 they have 1 pt, so gaining 5 pts over the final 15 may be a stretch. They are working hard for their Coach though so they might.
Saint John is gaining points at a rate of 0.259, so with 14 games to play they project to accumulate 7.25 pts ... say 7.
At most, Bathurst can reach 47 pts which is highly doubtful. Right now VD holds down the 5th lottery position and has 41 pts. BBA is right behind at 40 pts with the 4th position. Shaw is in the 3 hole at 32 pts.
So ... just like on election night ... before all the final results are known, I'm calling it that Bathurst will finish last. Crazy eh ?
I don't think we can set a magic number to it yet as there seem to be too many variables. But SJ needs 20 pts to stay ahead of Bathurst ... so any pts that SJ accumulates or Bathurst does not accumulate totaling 20, would ensure that SJ stays ahead of Bathurst. Shawinigan still figures into it, as do Val D'Or and BBA, but VD and BBA will be out the running soon.
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Post by chootoi on Feb 13, 2019 12:18:33 GMT -4
If the Titan end up last then the pick ends up being guaranteed top 3 doesn't it? I believe that's how when the Cats ended up at 3 in 2017. They didn't win either of the first two lotteries so they were automatically slotted 3rd.
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Post by lirette on Feb 13, 2019 12:28:12 GMT -4
I don't think there is anything to really follow here. Bathurst will be last, at this point its waiting for the lottery.
Its great that the pick will only be 3rd at worst...obviously Joshua Roy is the prize of the draft so having the best odds at that is great..but the way things have gone for this franchise lately I am not getting my hopes up. Not sure on how much of a step down the 2-5 guys are.
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Post by WhiteTyAffair on Feb 13, 2019 14:00:19 GMT -4
If the Titan end up last then the pick ends up being guaranteed top 3 doesn't it? I believe that's how when the Cats ended up at 3 in 2017. They didn't win either of the first two lotteries so they were automatically slotted 3rd. That’s correct. If Bathurst finishes last, worst case scenario is 3rd overall. |
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Post by Reesor on Feb 13, 2019 14:14:14 GMT -4
We've done a lot of magic number stuff on our board lately. Don't judge us.  Bathurst's reverse magic number for last overall is 20. Any points lost by Bathurst or gained by Saint John reduces it. When it gets to zero, Bathurst is last overall, which as mentioned, is probably a formality at this point. |
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Post by SteveUL on Feb 13, 2019 14:30:06 GMT -4
We've done a lot of magic number stuff on our board lately. Don't judge us. Bathurst's reverse magic number for last overall is 20. Any points lost by Bathurst or gained by Saint John reduces it. When it gets to zero, Bathurst is last overall, which as mentioned, is probably a formality at this point. Its not a firm 20 though ... but it is a worst 20. If SJ passes Shaw then the number shifts. The number is 16 with Shaw. |
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Post by Reesor on Feb 13, 2019 15:29:58 GMT -4
We've done a lot of magic number stuff on our board lately. Don't judge us. Bathurst's reverse magic number for last overall is 20. Any points lost by Bathurst or gained by Saint John reduces it. When it gets to zero, Bathurst is last overall, which as mentioned, is probably a formality at this point. Its not a firm 20 though ... but it is a worst 20. If SJ passes Shaw then the number shifts. The number is 16 with Shaw. Are you talking playoff spot or last overall? Playoff spot you're correct it is 16. Any combination of points Shawinigan gains or Bathurst loses reduces the number. Last overall it is currently 20, and Saint John is the metric. If Saint John and Shawinigan flip, then it reverses. But the magic number for Bathurst to claim last is 20, and of course can only go down. |
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Post by catzfans on Feb 14, 2019 1:17:31 GMT -4
What are the draft odds if Bathurst does finish last overall? Are they still the same from 2 yeas ago where we had the best odds and ended up 3rd overall?
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Post by Reesor on Feb 14, 2019 7:56:53 GMT -4
What are the draft odds if Bathurst does finish last overall? Are they still the same from 2 yeas ago where we had the best odds and ended up 3rd overall? Yes. There are 21 lottery balls in the machine. Last overall in the standings has 9:21 shot, 2nd last is 6:21, 3rd last is 3:21, 4th last is 2:21, and 5th last is 1:21. First ball picked is 1st pick, second ball is 2nd pick etc. Last overall in the standings can't pick lower than 3rd overall, so if their ball isn't picked in the first two picks, they have 3rd pick. 2nd last in the standings can't pick lower than 4th overall. |
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Post by WhiteTyAffair on Feb 15, 2019 6:00:57 GMT -4
Here are the top 5 prospects according to HockeyProspect.com
1 - Joshua Roy - Forward - Chevaliers Levis - 5’11” 165
2 - Zachary Bolduc - Forward - Estacades Trois-Rivieres - 5’11” 155
3 - Cameron Whynot - Defense - Valley Wildcats - 6’01” 177
4 - Cameron MacDonald - Forward - Selects Hockey Academy - 6’02” 182
5 - Justin Robidas - Forward - Cantonniers Magog - 5’06” 148
TPE Hockey has Joshua Roy ranked 4th for the 2021 NHL Draft. Obviously very early but he is THAT good.
Justin Robidas is the son of former NHL defenseman Stephane Robidas.
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Post by SteveUL on Feb 15, 2019 9:08:27 GMT -4
What are the draft odds if Bathurst does finish last overall? Are they still the same from 2 yeas ago where we had the best odds and ended up 3rd overall? Out of the five teams that qualify, finishing 18th overall (or owning that pick) gives you the best odds of each individual team to get first overall. However, as Reesor posted, you have 9:21 ratio which is roughly 43% chance, which means the odds are better ... 57% ... that you won't get 1st overall. So far in the two 5 way draft lotteries we have had, the 18th place finisher did not get the 1st overall pick. 16th and 15th overall won the right to pick 1st in the last two drafts. At some point that favoured pick will get first overall ... might as well be this year. |
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Post by Captain Obvious on Feb 15, 2019 9:10:47 GMT -4
Here are the top 5 prospects according to HockeyProspect.com 1 - Joshua Roy - Forward - Chevaliers Levis - 5’11” 165 2 - Zachary Bolduc - Forward - Estacades Trois-Rivieres - 5’11” 155 3 - Cameron Whynot - Defense - Valley Wildcats - 6’01” 177 4 - Cameron MacDonald - Forward - Selects Hockey Academy - 6’02” 182 5 - Justin Robidas - Forward - Cantonniers Magog - 5’06” 148 TPE Hockey has Joshua Roy ranked 4th for the 2021 NHL Draft. Obviously very early but he is THAT good. Justin Robidas is the son of former NHL defenseman Stephane Robidas. I don’t like the idea of drafting a d-man top 5 overall. Much more risk and development involved. |
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Post by SteveUL on Feb 15, 2019 9:11:21 GMT -4
What are the draft odds if Bathurst does finish last overall? Are they still the same from 2 yeas ago where we had the best odds and ended up 3rd overall? Yes. There are 21 lottery balls in the machine. Last overall in the standings has 9:21 shot, 2nd last is 6:21, 3rd last is 3:21, 4th last is 2:21, and 5th last is 1:21. First ball picked is 1st pick, second ball is 2nd pick etc. Last overall in the standings can't pick lower than 3rd overall, so if their ball isn't picked in the first two picks, they have 3rd pick. 2nd last in the standings can't pick lower than 4th overall. Correct ... and after a ball is picked, all of the balls for that lucky team are removed from the drum and so the odds change for each successive pick. |
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Post by jimmy on Feb 15, 2019 9:39:04 GMT -4
Here are the top 5 prospects according to HockeyProspect.com 1 - Joshua Roy - Forward - Chevaliers Levis - 5’11” 165 2 - Zachary Bolduc - Forward - Estacades Trois-Rivieres - 5’11” 155 3 - Cameron Whynot - Defense - Valley Wildcats - 6’01” 177 4 - Cameron MacDonald - Forward - Selects Hockey Academy - 6’02” 182 5 - Justin Robidas - Forward - Cantonniers Magog - 5’06” 148 TPE Hockey has Joshua Roy ranked 4th for the 2021 NHL Draft. Obviously very early but he is THAT good. Justin Robidas is the son of former NHL defenseman Stephane Robidas. I don’t like the idea of drafting a d-man top 5 overall. Much more risk and development involved. I am inclined to disagree ... I went back and looked at the last five Q drafts ... any d-man drafted top 5 pretty much without exception developed into a stud at this level. I don't think there is much more risk with a d-man than there is with a forward - a guy you are picking top 5 is normally already good enough to step right into a top 4 role as a 16 year old, and grow from there. |
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Post by WhiteTyAffair on Feb 15, 2019 10:01:28 GMT -4
Here are the top 5 prospects according to HockeyProspect.com 1 - Joshua Roy - Forward - Chevaliers Levis - 5’11” 165 2 - Zachary Bolduc - Forward - Estacades Trois-Rivieres - 5’11” 155 3 - Cameron Whynot - Defense - Valley Wildcats - 6’01” 177 4 - Cameron MacDonald - Forward - Selects Hockey Academy - 6’02” 182 5 - Justin Robidas - Forward - Cantonniers Magog - 5’06” 148 TPE Hockey has Joshua Roy ranked 4th for the 2021 NHL Draft. Obviously very early but he is THAT good. Justin Robidas is the son of former NHL defenseman Stephane Robidas. I don’t like the idea of drafting a d-man top 5 overall. Much more risk and development involved. I can only imagine your reaction when Luke Green and Sam Girard went 1st and 3rd overall respectively in the same draft. |
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